Market News

The Asia-Pacific economic calendar has only one highlight today and that's the Australian January trade balance in goods report. The consensus is a surplus of A$3.9 billion, in a solid improvement from +$3.337 billion in December.

Yesterday's price action in AUD was strange as it was a laggard despite the stronger GDP number. I tend to think the drop in gold prices and rout in mining stocks might have discouraged some of the thinking around an investment boom.

Naturally, all eyes remain on the Middle East but the market is clearly getting more comfortable with the risks around the war. Today, the US and Israel claimed "local air superiority" and said they've struck 1000 targets since Feb 28.

I wrote yesterday about the good news in the…

The price of crude oil has moved higher and moves back above $76.

• Iran's strikes will intensify and expand in coming days
• Thousands of Iraqi Kurds have launched a ground offensive in Iran
• Iran says it hit a US warship with missiles 600 km away. It is reported that the missile 7000 km range and can change course midflight. US warships would be easy targets in the Persian Gulf. That complicates the assurance that ships would be able to pass through the straight of Hormuz
• There is a report that Houthis in Yemen plan to attack vital targets inside Saudi Arabia using missiles and drones as they have done in the past.

The next target comes in at $76.59, a downward sloping trendline is near that level. Can above and it opens the door for a run…

• Major US stock indices close higher as the market discounts the geopolitical risks
• Bitcoin blasts through Key resistance. 38.2% retracement at $74,400 in sight
• Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity increased at a slight/ moderate pace
• European indices rebound after two days of sharp declines
• White House submits nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair to Senate
• EIA Crude oil inventories 3.475M vs 2.305M estimate
• ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February 56.1 versus 53.5 estimate
• S&P Global composite PMI final 51.9 versus 52.3 preliminary
• Fed's Miran: Too early to have firm use about impact from Iran conflict
• Canada Labor Productivity rate for Q4 -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate
• The USD is modestly lower to kickstart the US session. What next for the major…

After most of the major European indices stretch to new cycle Heisler record highs at the end of last week, the today selloff on the back of the Iranian war was harsh. Looking at the percentage changes from the highs to the low prices reach yesterday shows:

• German DAX -7.10%
• France's CAC -6.43%
• UKs FTSE 100 -4.84%
• Spain's Ibex -9.0%
• Italy'sFTSE MIB - 7.60%

Yesterday, the price rebounded to the close, today that momentum has continued with solid gains to the upside.

Looking at the closing levels:

• German DAX, +1.74%
• France's CAC +0.79%
• UK's FTSE 100 +0.80%
• Spain's Ibex + 2.49%
• Italy's FTSE MIB 1.95%

Taking a technical look at the German DAX, the closing level of 24205.37 was back above its 200 day moving average at 24175.53. Staying above and getting…

The White House has submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair to the Senate

Recall, it was announced on January 30, 2026 that Kevin Warsh would be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair.

• January 30, 2026: President Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell when Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026.

• The nomination still requires U.S. Senate confirmation before Warsh can officially assume the role.

• Warsh previously served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011.

It appears the urgency to fast-track Kevin Warsh’s vetting and approval—potentially to increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates—has faded as inflation remains elevated and growth and employment continue to show…

• Crude oil 3.475M vs 2.305M estimate. Last 15.989M
• Distillates 0.429M vs -2.596M estimate. Last 0.252M
• Gasoline -1.704M vs 0.784M last week.
• Cushing 1.564M vs 0.881M last week.

The private data released late yesterday showed:

• Crude +5.6M
• Distillates +0.5M.
• Gasoline -3.3 million
• Cushing +1.5 million

Crude oil is trading lower on the day after failing to sustain yesterday’s rally. The price extended to just below $78 yesterday, but today’s rebound stalled at $77.23 before sellers stepped back in. The session low has reached $73.28, keeping the focus on nearby technical support levels.

On the downside, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the February 26 low at $63.60 comes in at $72.49. Yesterday the price briefly dipped below that level but…

• Prior month 53.8
• ISM non- manufacturing PMI for February 56.1 versus 53.5 estimate.
• Nonmanufacturing business activity 59.9 vs 57.4 last month
• employment index 51.8 vs 50.3 last month.
• New orders 58.6 vs 53.1 last month.
• Prices paid 63.0 vs 66.6 last month. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 15 straight months, but February’s reading is its lowest since March 2025 (61.4 percent).
• Inventories 56.4 versus 45.1 last month. The Inventory Sentiment Index expanded for the 34th consecutive month, registering 55.3 percent, up 1 percentage point from January’s figure of 54.3 percent.
• Supplier deliveries 53.9 versus 54.2 last month
• Backlog of orders 55.9 versus 44.0 last month. The Backlog of Orders Index was in expansion territory for the first time…

• Prior estimate 52.3. Prior month 53.0
• S&P global composite index 51.9
• S&P Global services PMI final 51.7 versus 52.3 preliminary and 52.7 last

• Prior quarter 0.9% revised to 1.1%
• Labor productivity rate for Q4 -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate

Details of the report:

• Canadian business labour productivity fell -0.1% in Q4, as real GDP declined -0.2% while hours worked fell -0.1%.

• This follows a +1.1% productivity gain in Q3, when output rose while hours worked declined.

• The Q4 drop marks the second productivity decline in the last nine quarters.

Sector breakdown

• Goods-producing sector productivity fell -0.9% in Q4, after rising +1.8% in Q3.

• Services sector productivity rose +0.4%, following +0.6% growth in the prior quarter.

• Manufacturing and construction were the main drivers of the productivity decline.

• Information and cultural industries led productivity gains within services.

Hours worked

• Total…

Headlines:

• Iran operatives have secretly made offer to discuss terms for ending the war - NYT
• US futures pare losses, turn positive on the day
• Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery struck again by unknown projectile - report
• Switzerland February CPI +0.1% vs -0.1% y/y expected
• Eurozone January PPI +0.7% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Eurozone February final services PMI 51.9 vs 51.8 prelim
• UK February final services PMI 53.9 vs 53.9 prelim
• BOJ governor Ueda says wage increases much needed to get inflation to price target
• G7 finance ministers and central bankers to meet early next week
• China's top legislature says willing to work with the US but will hold its 'red lines'

Markets:

• WTI crude oil flat at $74.90, falling from a high of $77.23
• Brent crude oil up just…

• Prior was +22K (revised to +11K)
• Goods +16K versus +1K last month
• Service +47K versus +21K last month
• Small business +60K vs 0K prior
• Medium businesses -7K vs +41K last month
• Large businesses +10K vs -18K last month
• Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% last month
• Wages for job changers 6.3% vs 6.4% last month

This shouldn't be surprising given that the weekly ADP data has been pointing to a good report. The labour market has been improving steadily since the start of the year. On Friday, we get the more important US NFP report, which is likely to be a good one based on all of the jobs data we got up until now.

For background, the ADP National Employment Report is an independent monthly measure of private-sector employment in the United States,…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session saw markets grappling with escalating US-Iran tensions, which overshadowed key macroeconomic data releases like China’s ongoing policy signals ahead of the ‘Two Sessions’ meetings (March 4-11) and Australia’s Q4 current account deficit data showing export weakness. Escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices toward $80/barrel amid supply disruption fears, boosting energy stocks while hammering airline, tourism, and broader equities.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Escalating geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which have driven a sharp Dow drop of 1,200 points, surging oil prices,…