Market News

Breman’s comments push back against the dovish reading of Wednesday’s hold and look aimed at steadying the New Zealand dollar, which she has said could add to imported inflation if it stays weak. Pricing of around 77% leaves room for further repricing toward a December hike if incoming data cooperates, which would support the currency and front-end yields. Her emphasis that timing is uncertain keeps the risk of a second hold alive, so the kiwi’s recovery may be gradual rather than sharp. Fuel prices remain the main external swing factor, linking the RBNZ path to oil and the Iran conflict.

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A day after a hold that sank the kiwi, Breman is all but promising December, though she isn’t quite ready to put it in writing.

Summary:

• RBNZ Governor…

The capex guidance is the number that matters for the AI supply chain. Spending of more than $50 billion next quarter and around $170 billion for the year, led by CPUs and GPUs, points to sustained demand for chipmakers and third-party data centre providers. Hood’s assurance on cash flow and her low-key stance on borrowing may ease concerns about how the build-out is funded, a contrast with the financing debate around some rivals. Guidance for Azure growth to accelerate to 49% to 50% gives investors a concrete near-term test of the efficiency argument.

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Earlier:

• Microsoft Q1 beats as Azure grows 48% and capex lands $6bn below forecast

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Microsoft is about to spend more than ever on AI, and its CFO’s pitch is that efficiency, not just…

Shares peaked at around $7.20, below the $7.35 offer, which suggests the market is pricing some risk that the deal won’t complete on these terms. The independent committee could push for a higher price, or the bid could falter, as Trian’s earlier take-private plans did. With net debt of around $2.4 billion against a $1.4 billion equity value, financing terms will be central to whether the deal holds together. For the wider restaurant sector, the bid highlights pressure on chains exposed to lower-income diners, and may stir speculation about other underperforming names becoming take-private targets.

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After circling Wendy’s for nearly two decades, Peltz has finally put a price on it, betting a burger chain under pressure will mend faster…

For oil, the report offers a medium-term offset to Hormuz risk rather than near-term relief, since no new bypass capacity arrives before early 2027. Until then, Gulf supply remains exposed to any renewed escalation, so the war-risk premium is unlikely to ease on this news alone. Once running, a second outlet to Fujairah would make more of the UAE’s medium sour crude secure for Asian buyers, which could narrow risk premiums on Gulf grades bought on term contracts. The bigger exposure remains with Gulf producers that lack comparable bypass routes, so a firm start date for Adnoc alone does not change the overall supply picture much.

Adnoc is building its way around Hormuz, but the new exit doesn’t open until early 2027, leaving the market to…

For Hong Kong, the decision confirms that local borrowing costs stay tied to the Fed’s hiking path, regardless of domestic conditions. Mortgage holders and property developers are most exposed, because a December Fed hike would flow through to the base rate and from there to bank lending rates. The peg also means Hong Kong dollar assets carry US rate risk. Traders should watch Fed expectations, not the HKMA, when positioning for Hong Kong rate moves.

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Earlier:

• Recap: Fed holds at 3.75%-4% in 10-2 vote as Cook dissents for a hike, December move in focus
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 28 Oct: Fed holds rates, yield curve steepens as Big Tech earnings diverge

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Hong Kong’s rate decisions are made in Washington, and with a December Fed…

A hold with two hawkish dissents and no pushback from Warsh on December pricing keeps the bias firmly toward tightening, which supports Treasury yields and the dollar into year end. Cook’s dissent matters for rate expectations because it widens hawkish support beyond the committee’s usual hard-liners, strengthening the case that a December hike has broad backing. The dissent may also be read politically, given Trump’s efforts to remove her, which adds to scrutiny of Fed independence. Fewer scheduled rate decisions from next year mean each meeting carries more weight, and that could amplify market moves around those dates.

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Earlier:

• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 28 Oct: Fed holds rates, yield curve steepens as Big Tech earnings diverge

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What is happening

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, bought no bitcoin in the week of October 19 to 25. Instead it spent $204.9 million buying back its own STRC preferred shares, according to its October 26 filing with the SEC.

Those buybacks have helped lift STRC to about $99.36, its highest level in roughly five months and just shy of its $100 par value. Social media accounts have run with the next step: Michael Saylor is "set to resume heavy Bitcoin buying" once STRC gets back to $100.

That claim rests on a real, stated plan. Whether it plays out as "heavy" is a different question, and readers may get some answers soon. Strategy reports third-quarter results after the US close on Thursday, October 29, with a webinar at…

The poll shows the gold outlook is being driven by the Iran war’s knock-on effects rather than by safe-haven buying. Higher oil prices have fed through to yields, the dollar and expectations that rates will stay high, which raises the cost of holding bullion. That makes crude a key upstream driver for gold: any easing in oil and yields, for example on progress in US-Iran talks, would remove one of the main headwinds analysts cite. Silver carries extra downside risk because its industrial exposure leaves it vulnerable to softer solar demand on top of the rate pressure. The forecast gap between the two metals favours gold over silver.

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Earlier:

• UBS sees limited gold downside as three demand pillars set a floor near $4,000

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The Iran war has…

UBS’s view makes $4,000 an ounce (or just below) the level to watch: a sustained break below it would challenge the bank’s dip-buyer floor thesis. Last week’s ETF outflows show that shorter-term investment money has been leaving even as official sector demand holds up. That split suggests near-term price direction may depend on whether central banks and Chinese buyers absorb that selling. For traders, the call frames dips toward $4,000 as areas where buying interest may appear, not as confirmation of a broader downtrend.

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Fund money may be heading for the exit, but UBS is betting that central banks, Chinese buyers and debt worries will keep gold anchored near $4,000.

Summary:

• UBS sees gold as a strategic portfolio diversifier, backed by…

The rally suggests investors had been pricing in more financing risk than profitability risk, so a hard ceiling on new funding did as much work as the revenue target. A capped equity component also limits dilution concerns that had weighed on the stock. Beyond Oracle, a credible path to self-funded AI capacity eases pressure on the broader argument that hyperscaler spending cannot pay for itself. It arrived the same evening as Microsoft and Alphabet reported lower than expected capex. The scale of the move also leaves the stock more sensitive to any slippage against those targets.

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Oracle gave investors a big number and, more importantly, a spending limit, and the market rewarded the discipline more than the ambition.

Summary:

• Oracle…

What was said

A Bitcoin Archive post on X this week ran under the banner "$200K+ BITCOIN INCOMING", relaying a claim that U.S. Senator Bill Hagerty says the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying BTC "very soon" once crypto market rules are settled.

The short answer: the US government has no authority to buy bitcoin on the open market today, the market rules in question stalled in the Senate in September, and "very soon" has been the reserve's estimated time of arrival for the better part of 18 months.

Bitcoin traded around $81,000 on Wednesday, roughly 28% below its level a year earlier. Getting to $200,000 would take a gain of about 2.5 times. That is a lot of weight to hang on one conditional sentence relayed by a social media account.

<p id="what-the-reserve-actually-is-today" style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0.5rem;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.2;font-size: 2rem;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", "Noto Sans", "Liberation Sans", Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji";font-style: normal;letter-spacing: normal;text-indent: 0;text-transform: none;word-spacing: 0;white-space:…

The capex figure is likely to drive the reaction as much as the beat itself. Lower than expected spending alongside stronger Azure growth supports Microsoft’s margins and its AI return-on-investment case. It could weigh on sentiment toward AI hardware and data centre suppliers if traders read it as a slowdown in hyperscaler orders. The result also sets a high bar for the AI cloud trade into the remaining megacap reports.

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Microsoft grew Azure faster than expected on far less capital spending than forecast, a combination that strengthens its AI payback story but will raise questions about the pace of the build-out.

Summary:

• Adjusted EPS of $4.89 beat the $4.73 consensus; reported EPS was $4.92
• Revenue of around $92 billion topped estimates…