Market News

• Prior was 1.502m (revised to 1.507m)
• Building permits 1.442m vs 1.385m expected
• Prior 1.363m (revised to

Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,465,000. This is 2.8 percent (±11.0 percent) below the revised March estimate of 1,507,000, but is 4.6 percent (±13.9 percent) above the April 2025 rate of 1,400,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 930,000; this is 9.0 percent (±7.5 percent) below the revised March figure of 1,022,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 529,000.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000. This is 5.8 percent above the revised March…

• Prior week 211K revised to 212K
• Initial jobless claim 209Kvs 210K estimate.
• 4-week moving average 202.50K vs 204.00K last week
• Continueing claims 1.782M vs 1.785M estimate. Prior week 1.776M vs 1.782M previously reported
• 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.773M vs revised 1.780 last week (was 1.781M)
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 9 were in Florida (+2,591), Texas (+2,111), Kentucky (+1,739), Pennsylvania (+1,108), and New York (+1,096),
• The largest decreases were in California (-1,232), Michigan (-733), New Hampshire (-527), Rhode Island (-190), and North Dakota (-172).

The weekly claims data is not far from the estimates or the prior week. They continue to show steady/healthy jobs data.

US housing starts and…

• Prior was +26.7

Details:

• New orders xx vs 33.0 prior
• Shipments xx vs 34.0 prior
• Unfilled orders xx vs -10.2 prior
• Delivery times xx vs 1.7 prior
• Inventories xx vs -1.9 prior
• Prices paid xx vs 59.3 prior
• Prices received xx vs 33.5 prior
• Number of employees xx vs -5.1 prior
• Average employee workweek xx vs 7.7 prior

Six-months from now indicators:

• 6 month index xx vs 40.8 prior
• Capex index 6-month forward xx vs 35.2 prior
• New orders xx vs 45.7 prior
• Shipments xx vs 40.8 prior
• Unfilled orders xx vs -4.1 prior
• Delivery times xx vs 2.7 prior
• Inventories xx vs -0.7 prior
• Prices paid xx vs 50.2 prior
• Prices received xx vs 50.2 prior
• Number of employees xx vs 35.9 prior
• Average employee workweek xx vs 30.3 prior

Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall. The…

The CBI monthly manufacturing order book balance for May dropped to -41, following the -38 reading in April. That marks the lowest such estimate since September 2020 amid surging cost pressures. Of note, the gauge of expected selling prices rose to +38 (previously +32) - marking the highest since February 2023.

While the UK PMI data report earlier showed that manufacturing conditions held up in May, it came with a big caveat. Most firms reported a temporary demand increase due to frontloading activity in order to beat price hikes and potential supply disruptions.

As such, the CBI data above is a better signal of underlying conditions and the actual demand environment.

"Against an uncertain global backdrop, the conflict in the Middle East is…

• Iran supreme leader orders that near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile must stay in Iran
• The directive reflects the consensus among Iranian establishment

As a reminder, the US wants Iran to completely remove or neutralise its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile. And this issue has been a major point of contention since the beginning of the war. Trump has made it clear that he wants a total halt to Iran's enrichment program and has made it clear that simply limiting or pausing future enrichment is not enough.

That being said, the latest stance here is no different from what it has been for weeks now.

If you might recall, whatever the US and Iran is negotiating with regards to the peace proposal is all in part just a framework agreement. At…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Samsung Electronics’ union is suspending a potentially devastating 48,000-worker strike after reaching a tentative pay agreement, sending Samsung shares up over 6% and lifting South Korea’s Kospi. NVIDIA’s better-than-expected earnings are boosting Asian semiconductor suppliers despite a muted after-hours reaction.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Expect markets to react primarily to fresh macro prints and any central-bank or official comments that shift rate expectations, while energy headlines (supply disruptions, OPEC+ or Middle East developments, and weekly U.S. inventory data) will drive oil and inflation-risk sentiment;…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 3.68%, Shanghai Composite up 0.00% Hang Seng up 0.03% ASX up 1.53%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,536.92 (-0.20%) Silver at $75.925 (-036%), Brent Oil at $105.85 (0.35%), WTI Oil at $99.16 (0.15%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.592, UK 10-year yield at 5.9920, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0945

• (GBP) CPI Y/Y  2.8%  to 3.0%   expected

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday, following strong gains on Wall Street as easing concerns over the Middle East conflict helped cool oil prices and improve investor sentiment.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, according to a pool report, raising…

Germany's finance ministry just reported a €41 billion federal budget deficit at the end of April earlier today. For a country that has long been the "frugal superpower" of Europe, the deficit number is quite the red flag for something at this stage of the year. It all continues to point to major economic and structural strain, suggesting Germany's fiscal wiggle room has completely vanished.

As a reminder, Germany used to operate under a strict constitutional "debt brake". That rule limited the federal structural deficit to just 0.35% of GDP. And while the €41 billion deficit at the end of April is just a rolling cash-flow figure, the latest budget deficit-to-GDP ratio estimates should fall between 3.6% and 4.0% of GDP.

And mind you, that…

Markets Rally on Middle East Peace Hopes – Nasdaq up 1.5%
Global equity markets rallied strongly overnight after President Trump advised that negotiations between the US and Iran were in their “final stages”, boosting hopes that tensions in the Middle East may continue to ease and potentially paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The improvement in risk sentiment saw all three major US indices finish firmly higher on the session, while US Treasury yields retreated from recent highs and the US dollar weakened against the major currencies.
The Dow Jones rose 1.31% to close at 50,009, while the S&P 500 gained 1.08% to finish at 7,432. Technology stocks again outperformed, helping lift the Nasdaq 1.54% higher to close at…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Higher Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns, and oil-linked risk sentiment, while the main macro focus was a batch of U.S. housing/mortgage-related data and the market’s read-through from recent inflation prints, rather than a major new blockbuster release. The instruments most affected were U.S. Treasury notes/bonds, U.S. stock index futures, crude oil, and the U.S. dollar, with rate-sensitive equities and the Nasdaq generally under the most pressure.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Thursday 21 May brings a batch of flash PMIs for Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US that will set the early tone for risk appetite across…