Market News

Crude oil futures have extended to a new session high of $103.53, with the latest price up $3.59, or 3.57%, on the day. The move brings the price closer to the $103.92 high from earlier this week, with additional resistance targets coming into focus.

Geopolitical concerns are providing a supportive backdrop. According to the attached Fox News report, official and military sources said movements are underway in the Middle East to give President Trump options should he decide to resume strikes against Iran. The sources stressed that the preparations are intended to ensure the U.S. military is ready, but there is no indication that the president has made a decision.

Separately, the overnight the Wall Street Journal reporting that the U.S. has…

Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter:

While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed.We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week.

This is the first real confirmation of the seven-day plan, which could start as soon as Monday.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The RBNZ held its cash rate at 2.75% on October 28, surprising markets that had heavily priced in a 25-basis-point hike to 3.00%. The probability of a hike ahead of the decision was estimated near 88%, with some reports suggesting an increase was almost fully priced.

Despite the surprise hold, the decision carried a hawkish bias:

• A narrow 4–3 vote: Three members favored raising the cash rate to 3.00%.

• Further tightening remains likely: All members agreed that higher rates would probably be needed, depending on the economic outlook.

• Inflation remains a concern: Annual CPI eased to 3.7%, but is projected to rise to 4.4% in Q4, largely because of fuel costs. Core inflation and broader price pressures remain elevated.

• An uneven recovery supports…

For the week ending October 23:

• Crude oil inventories: −1.892 million barrels vs +0.015 million expected. Prior −3.060 million.
• Gasoline inventories: +3.870 million barrels vs −0.942 million expected. Prior −2.952 million.
• Distillate inventories: −1.462 million barrels vs −0.858 million expected. Prior +1.675 million.
• Cushing crude inventories: −0.624 million barrels. Prior +0.987 million.
• Refinery utilization: −0.6 percentage points vs −0.1 expected. Prior −0.1.

Private API report released late yesterday, October 27:

• Crude oil: −2.031 million barrels, against a +0.800 million expected build.
• Gasoline: +2.390 million barrels.
• Distillates: +0.380 million barrels.
• Cushing: −0.453 million barrels.

US weekly petroleum inventory data were mixed, with…

• Energy prices have been high for 8 months and look like they're going to stay high
• We are seeing more investment in the energy secretary
• Business can absorb higher costs for awhile but ultimately they pass them on
• Our surveys show they are planning to pass on more of these cost increases

He's referring to this chart from the MPR:

• Even with rates here, our rate is low enough that it's not restraining growth
• There is no pre-determied path for rates
• There could be a further need for rate hikes but uncertainty is high
• We're going to take decisions one at a time based on incoming information
• Inflation is looking less likely to be well-contained
• Rogers: We debated a hike and a hold
• Rogers: There was a very strong consensus
• Rogers: What drove the decision…

In the video above, I take a look at the technical picture for crude oil, where buyers continue to lean against the rising hourly moving averages. Those levels help define the bullish bias, the risk for buyers, and what needs to happen to give sellers more control.

Buyers keep leaning against the hourly moving averages

The price last traded below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages on October 12. Since then, corrective moves lower have stalled against either the 100-hour MA or the 200-hour MA before rotating back higher.

That repeated pattern tells traders where buyers are stepping in—and where sellers need to push to take back some control.

What would shift the bias?

The 100-hour MA is near $100.95, while the 200-hour MA comes in near…

USD:

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. With no new projections or dot plot expected at this meeting, changes in Fed Chair Warsh's or statement's language will be the main focus.

Despite higher September inflation data strengthening the case for further tightening, key Fed members have signalled little urgency to deliver a back-to-back rate hike in October. A hawkish hold remains the base case as the debate centres around the timing and extent of further tightening rather than direction.

Warsh is expected to reiterate that monetary policy is not sufficiently restrictive and that additional tightening is warranted. He's also seen…

The Bank of Canada rate decision is due at 9:45 am ET and it's an uncertain one.

The market shifted aggressively hawkish after comments from Macklem at the IMF meetings. That now has the market pricing in a 78% chance of a hike today and 31 bps of hikes before year end. That rises to 100 bps in the coming year, which would take the overnight rate to 3.25%.

In Thailand, Macklem said global economies had performed better than expected but that resilience was "under strain" because the effects of emergency oil releases were running out.

"You can only release strategic energy, oil reserves so many times," he said.

The Bank of Canada will release updated forecasts for the economy and inflation alongside its interest rate decision

Tellingly, Macklem…

• The market was pricing in a 78% chance of a rate hike
• Prior overnight rate was 2.25%
• Says inflation is higher and more persistent than in the July Report
• global economic activity has remained resilient, despite higher energy prices
• Growth has picked up this year and is expected to recover further
• There could be a need to increase the policy rate further, but given uncertainties, Governing Council agreed to proceed carefully

The last line there is the key one, is a dovish hike as they characterize it as a hike to "reduce the risk of the continuing high energy prices" spreading broadly. USD/CAD is little moved on the knee-jerk.

In his opening statement, Macklem said:

Looking ahead, Governing Council agreed we would take future decisions one meeting…

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEMedia RelationsOttawa, OntarioOctober 28, 2026Share this page on FacebookShare this page on XShare this page on LinkedInShare this page by email

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.

Since the July Monetary Policy Report, global economic activity has remained resilient, despite higher energy prices. In the United States, the economy continues to grow at a robust pace, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Growth in the euro area has been resilient and broad-based. After slowing in the second quarter, Chinese growth rebounded in the third quarter, owing to strength in exports and a…

BOC preview: A hike is favored, but the decision remains closely contested

The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 AM ET, with expectations leaning toward a 25-basis-point increase to 2.50% from 2.25%. However, economists remain divided: 19 of 34 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a hike, while money markets were pricing roughly a 77% probability of an increase ahead of the announcement.

The policy debate centers on whether higher energy prices will spread into broader inflation. September headline inflation rose to 3.1%, while core measures eased below 2%. That leaves policymakers weighing the risk of persistent price pressures against the economic cost of raising rates. RBC expects a hike but describes its conviction…

Headlines:

• Crude oil remains under pressure amid US-Iran deal hopes; setbacks could push prices to new highs
• Qatari mediators presented Iran with new draft deal; Iran's response expected by the end of the week
• Gold rebounds on renewed hopes for US-Iran deal as focus shifts to FOMC decision
• Wall Street faces a double test as Fed decision and Microsoft, Alphabet earnings loom
• Heads up: UK autumn budget puts Healey to the test as gilt markets await fiscal reassurance
• Germany consumer sentiment remains weak ahead of November as inflation fears cloud recovery outlook
• Germany's trade struggles with China set to put Asia-Pacific deficit on course for record high

Markets:

• AUD leads, NZD lags on the day
• 10-year Treasury yields up 2.5 bps to 5.017%
• Gold down…