Market News

Gold rebounded yesterday on renewed hopes for a US-Iran deal. The market started to move when Iran's state media reported that Iran's security chief met with the Supreme Leader Khamenei. Sources said that Khamenei stressed in the meeting the importance of pursuing Iran's interests and implementing its conditions with the aim of ending the war and the stalemate situation.

It was just a quick headline with little substance, but markets reacted positively as they are desperate for good news. The narrative was that Iran’s security chief was bringing the leader some kind of framework for a deal. The markets might also be very sensitive to deal developments given the…

It's a more tepid start to the day as European stocks are opening a touch lower, although the declines are relatively modest for the most part. Investors are keeping a more cautious mood ahead of the Fed decision and big tech earnings later in the day. Here are the opening changes:

• Eurostoxx -0.1%
• Germany DAX -0.1%
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE -0.3%
• Spain IBEX -1.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.2%

Spanish stocks are the notable laggard in early trading, with the IBEX falling by more than 1% as Banco Santander shares come under pressure again. Elsewhere, the declines are relatively contained as European investors appear reluctant to take on much risk ahead of the major events still to come.

The Fed decision is the obvious event that jumps out on the calendar,…

According to an official briefed on the US-Iran negotiations, Qatari mediators presented Tehran with a new draft proposal on Sunday. Iran is considering the proposal, with a response expected by the end of the week. The draft reportedly establishes a seven-day timeline for addressing both sides’ concerns, requiring daily confidence-building steps, potentially beginning early next week.

The report follows yesterday’s news that Iran’s army chief met with Supreme Leader Khamenei, who reportedly stressed the importance of pursuing Iran’s interests and securing its conditions to end the war and the ongoing stalemate. The markets are so desperate for good news that any deal headline is triggering risk-on reactions amid hopes for an agreement…

• Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected
• Prior -30.6

The breakdownThe latest GfK survey shows that German consumer sentiment is set to slip marginally heading into November, amid growing inflation fears and more subdued income prospects.

Looking at the details, consumers' economic expectations improved for a sixth straight month in rising to 2.1 from -3.4 previously. This is the first time the sub-index has moved above zero since the start of the US-Iran conflict.

However, that optimistic signal is offset by another fall in income expectations. That fell to -15.7 from -15.0 previously, reflecting a modest decline after the slump in the prior month. Meanwhile, price expectations were also seen increasing further to 1.0…

For quite some time now, Germany's export struggles are hardly anything new. A lot of that comes down to push to diversify away from China in recent times but Beijing's own ambitions to become more self-sufficient haven't exactly helped matters either.

That has slowly exerted a toll on Europe's largest economy, especially when you consider how much Germany's industrial sector has relied on Chinese demand over the years.

And a new report from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) today is offering another warning of the challenges to come, with the report projecting that Germany is set to post a record trade deficit of nearly €146 billion with Asia-Pacific in 2026.

The detailed projection shows that exports to the region are expected to decline by…

It's squeaky bum time for gold traders as we start to get into a rather crucial and tense trading period in the second half of this week. The precious metal is already looking vulnerable, barely holding above $4,000 this week as we approach some key risk events for markets later today.

There are a few things weighing on gold price at the moment, with the bond market being arguably the biggest concern. 10-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, while the dollar is holding near a two-week high. Neither is particularly helpful for gold, especially when traders are already having to contend with plenty of uncertainty elsewhere.

In that lieu, the Fed decision later today could add more pressure to gold. While the central bank is widely expected…

• Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -30.8 vs -30.9 expected
• Prior -30.6

The breakdownDetails to follow...

What does the data measure?The GfK consumer climate index measures German households' confidence in their financial prospects and willingness to spend. It draws on consumer surveys covering income expectations, purchasing intentions and saving behaviour.

Why does it matter to markets?Household consumption is an important driver of German economic activity. Weak confidence suggests consumers may delay major purchases and prioritise savings, limiting domestic demand and making a sustained economic recovery more difficult.

How does this fit the broader economic picture?Germany's economic outlook remains uneven. Recent business surveys…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. stocks finished Monday higher as investors prepared for major technology earnings and the upcoming Fed decision. Oil prices declined amid hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, while gold rose and the dollar strengthened, according to market reports.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on three main themes on Tuesday, 27 October 2026: Fed expectations, Middle East oil-supply risks, and Japanese inflation signals. The dollar and Treasury yields could keep currency markets sensitive ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, while oil remains vulnerable to sharp moves in response to geopolitical headlines. Japan’s inflation data…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 27 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets rallied on Tuesday, as optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and major technology earnings improved risk appetite. South Korean and Japanese equities led the gains. The yen weakened ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, while the U.S. dollar remained firm. Gold edged lower, and oil slipped slightly but stayed elevated because of ongoing geopolitical and supply risks.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

The European and U.S. sessions today will be shaped by the relationship between U.S. economic data, the dollar, bond yields and expectations for central-bank policy. Traders should monitor U.S. durable goods…

There are a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 level, with the strike sitting within 30 pips of the spot level. The expiries could provide some attraction if price action stays relatively contained in the session ahead. Having said that, the price momentum continues to side with sellers for now as the drop this week puts a test of the 14 October low at 1.1111 in focus. The swing low there will be a more important level to watch, with EUR/USD looking to stick with a further downside push ahead of the main events this week.

Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 158.00 level, with the strike holding within 30 pips of the spot level. That could help…