Market News

The price of crude oil has moved to a low of $97 on the news. The current prices trading backup at $98.60. US stocks are higher with the S&P up 70 points or 0.94% while the NASDAQ index is up 340 points or 1.31%.

The USD has moved to lower. The price of USDJPY has moved below the 100 hour moving average at $158.78 to test the low prices from the last two trading days near $158.60. Moving below those levels would have traders targeting the rising 100 hour moving average at 158.10..

A Reuters article is making the rounds saying that a June rate hike is "nearly sealed"

• ECB officials see a June rate hike as nearly certain, with persistent high energy costs keeping inflation pressures elevated.
• The ECB is likely to avoid committing to a July hike, preferring to keep options open and remain data dependent.

Inflation risks have increased as elevated energy prices continue to pressure the outlook, with no visible peace agreement involving Iran in sight. Headline inflation is already running at 3%, well above the ECB’s 2% target, reinforcing the case for a June rate hike. Officials also acknowledge that even if a peace agreement is eventually reached, energy prices could remain elevated for some time before markets fully…

Looking at the weekly EIA oil inventory data showed a large drawdown of crude oil stocks. Gasoline toys fall. Distillates rise modestly:

• Crude oil inventories -7.863M versus estimate drawdown of -2.942M
• Distillates, build of 0.372M vs expected drawdown of -1.072M
• Gasoline drawdown -1.548M vs estimate drawdown of -2.096M
• Cushing drawdown of -1.604M vs a drawdown of -1.702M last week.

Despite the drawdown, crude oil is trading lower on the day by $-3.80 at $100.30. The low price extended to $99.45. The high price is at $104.45.

Technically, the price has dipped back below the 200 hour moving average at $100.57. Stay below that moving average level keeps the sellers more in control.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key catalyst for the market. Admittedly, the reactions have been somewhat less muted on good news lately. We will be monitoring those reactions. Meanwhile, trumpeters speaking and says

• Will work on Taiwan problem
• Will speak to Taiwan's president.
• Think it's good Xi meeting with Putin.
• On Iran, says that we are going to give this one shot, and am in no hurry.
• Will seek out of get rid of people in DOJ and FBI (not sure what that means honestly).
• Says that Israel PM Netanyahu will do whatever he wants him to do on Iran. Says Iran is decimated.

Crude oil remains a key market moving determinant, and also important in the consumer's eyes. Currently, crude oil is trading lower, down $2.40 or -2.30% at $101.78, as…

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From the legacy of the Invincibles to this new chapter of success, Arsenal’s triumph is a reminder that history is built over time. Through consistency, resilience and belief, the club has earned its place once again at the top of English football.

As the…

Headlines:

• A steadier mood as we get into European trading, still no US-Iran breakthrough yet
• EUR/USD continues its run lower amid increasing Fed hike bets, surging Treasury yields
• Gold extends the losses as Fed rate hike risks increase amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate
• ECB policymaker Wunsch warns we are at the beginning of an inflation problem
• Soon to be ECB policymaker Moulin says it's too soon to say if ECB needs to act in June
• What did the U.S. walk away with from the China summit?
• China to buy 200 Boeing jets and ease rare earth curbs in US trade breakthrough
• UK inflation underwhelms in April but it comes with some major caveats
• Euro area headline inflation confirmed to pick up further in April amid Middle East war
• Germany producer prices…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.52%, Shanghai Composite down 0.45% Hang Seng down 0.54% ASX down 1.26%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,462.15 (-0.52%) Silver at $73.890 (-0.15%), Brent Oil at $110.71 (-0.24%), WTI Oil at $103.76 (-0.22%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.670, UK 10-year yield at 5.1320, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1885

• (CAD) CPI m/m  0.4%  to 0.7%   expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined Wednesday as investors assessed rising bond yields and renewed geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “an hour away” from approving a strike on Iran before delaying the decision for several days.

U.S. Treasury yields climbed as investors sold…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

A dovish‑but‑cautious tone from China’s hold on LPRs, while a soft India core‑sector print reinforced concerns about infrastructure‑linked activity, even as PMIs show improvement. Global bond‑yield pressures and ongoing Middle‑East tensions filtered into the region, keeping Asian equities and commodity‑linked assets in a tight, risk‑averse range.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should focus on euro‑area inflation data out of the ECB zone this morning, which will anchor positioning in European bonds, the euro, and the broader risk‑on/off balance, while the afternoon U.S. session brings pending‑home‑sales and Fed‑speaker…

Stocks Hit Again on Inflation Fears – Dow down 0.65%

US equity markets extended their recent decline overnight as persistent inflation concerns continued to pressure global bond markets and further erode expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. Rising Treasury yields weighed heavily on risk sentiment throughout the session, with all three major US indices closing lower. The Dow Jones fell 0.65% to finish at 49,363, while the S&P 500 declined 0.67% to 7,353 and the Nasdaq underperformed again, sliding 0.84% to close at 25,870 as higher yields continued to weigh on growth and technology stocks.

US Treasury yields pushed sharply higher across the curve, reinforcing the market’s “higher for longer” interest rate outlook.…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets were shaped by persistent inflation concerns, a neutral‑to‑hawkish Fed‑speaker tone, and an API‑reported crude draw that kept oil bid despite a near‑term easing of Iran‑strike risk; this mix pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, underpinned the dollar, and weighed heaviest on tech and rate‑sensitive equities while keeping crude‑price‑linked instruments and energy‑sector stocks relatively supported.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders on May 20, 2026, face a binary day centered on Nvidia’s earnings after the U.S. close, which could drive an 8–10% move in the stock and ripple through Asia’s chip sector, particularly…