Market News

• Investors are most long commodities since April 2022; stock market sentiment turns bearish
• Iran's Supreme Leader says "not the right time for peace", US and Israel must be defeated
• Germany March ZEW economic sentiment index -0.5 vs 39.0 expected
• Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps oil prices supported; de-escalation is the only fix
• Italy February final CPI +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelim
• Military escorts not a sustainable solution to opening up Strait of Hormuz, says IMO chief
• Gold remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to trigger a breakout
• Switzerland February producer and import prices -0.3% vs -0.2% m/m prior
• What are the main events for today?
• One down, six more to go on the week..
• FX option expiries for 17 March 10am New York cut
• <a…

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• Global investors turn bearish as Iran and private credit concerns end "frothy bull" sentiment
• Net 45% of investors expect higher global CPI in the next 12 months, up from 9% a month ago
• Net 17% of investors expect lower short-term rates, lowest since February 2023 and down from 46% a month ago
• Measure of risk sentiment drops to 5.6 from 8.2 a month ago, but well above April 2025's 1.8
• Investors are most long commodities since April 2022 with a net 34% overweight
• Net 53% of investors were overweight emerging-market equities, the highest since February 2021
• Participants had the lowest allocation to consumer discretionary stocks since December 2022
• USD positioning swung rapidly from record underweight a month ago to neutral levels
• Geopolitics and…

• Iran's new Supreme Leader in foreign policy session rejects proposals for 'reducing tensions or seek peace with the US'
• Supreme Leader rejected proposals that were sent to Iran's foreign ministry by two intermediary countries
• Supreme Leader told foreign policy session 'not the right time for peace', US and Israel must be defeated, pay compensation

Iran’s new Supreme Leader has rejected proposals aimed at de-escalating tensions with the United States and Israel, according to a senior Iranian official who spoke to Reuters. During his first foreign policy session, the leader dismissed diplomatic roadmaps delivered to the Iranian Foreign Ministry by two intermediary countries, asserting that now is not the right time for peace.

The official told…

• Prior 58.3
• Current conditions -62.9 vs - 67.3 expected
• Prior -65.9

I had to double check the number because of the huge deviation. This is much lower than expected as the lowest forecast was 30.0. The US-Iran war and the surge in energy prices has certainly played a major role here.

WHAT IS THE ZEW INDEX

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is an influential monthly survey that gauges the economic expectations of financial experts in Germany. It is considered a "leading indicator," meaning it is used to gauge the future health of the German economy, the largest in the Eurozone, about six months in advance.

Unlike the Ifo Business Climate Index (which surveys company managers), the ZEW surveys up to 350 institutional investors and financial…

• Prior +1.0%
• HICP +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelim
• Prior +1.0%

The most notable thing from the report is that core annual inflation is seen making a big jump, up from 1.7% in January to 2.4% in February. Even if you take inflation excluding energy alone, that shows a material jump from 1.9% in January to 2.5% in February.

The breakdown shows that services prices is what is driving higher price pressures last month in Italy. That is seen up from 2.5% previously to 3.6% in February. Meanwhile, goods price inflation continue to show a decline of 0.2% - same as it was in January.

Dominguez spoke to the FT earlier and said that naval escorts are not a "100 percent guarantee" in terms of ship safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding that:

"It reduces the risk, but the risk is still there. The merchant ships and seafarers can be affected."

As such, he argues that military intervention to try and smooth the passageway is "not a long-term or sustainable solution" in opening up the strait.

As a reminder, US president Trump had over the weekend called on allies to send warships to the region in order to act as military escorts for oil tankers to pass through. Of course, everyone rejected him and with good reason. As mentioned earlier this week, it makes no sense for other countries to get involved now without any political…

US Stocks Rally on Conflict Resolution Hopes – S&P up 1%
US equity markets rallied strongly overnight as improving sentiment surrounding the conflict in the Middle East helped lift investor confidence and encouraged a return to risk assets. All three major indices finished the session firmly higher. The Dow Jones rose 0.83% to close at 49,946, while the S&P 500 gained 1.01% to finish at 6,699. Technology stocks led the advance, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.22% to end the day at 22,374. Currency markets saw the DXY pull back from recent annual highs, falling 0.68% to 99.81. In fixed income markets, US Treasuries moved higher, with yields declining across the curve. The 2-year yield dropped 4.5 basis points to 3.671%, while the benchmark…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session revolved around a “rates‑plus‑oil” narrative: markets priced in a likely RBA hike against a backdrop of elevated crude prices and recently stronger Chinese data, leaving AUD and Aussie rates as the prime movers, while Asian equities traded cautiously weaker and energy‑linked assets continued to outperform.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where closure has driven oil prices up around 40% since late February, alongside upcoming central bank decisions like the Fed’s March 18 meeting, expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% while updating its dot plot on 2026…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session revolved around a “rates‑plus‑oil” narrative: markets priced in a likely RBA hike against a backdrop of elevated crude prices and recently stronger Chinese data, leaving AUD and Aussie rates as the prime movers, while Asian equities traded cautiously weaker and energy‑linked assets continued to outperform.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where closure has driven oil prices up around 40% since late February, alongside upcoming central bank decisions like the Fed’s March 18 meeting, expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% while updating its dot plot on 2026…