Market News

• Trump was informed most "allies" won't help with Hormoz. Says US doesn't need help anyway
• Trump on the war: A couple of weeks, not much longer
• Trump: NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there.
• U.S. Treasury auctions of $13 billion of 20 year notes at a high yield of 4.817%
• US February pending home sales +1.8% vs -0.5% expected
• US Director of the National Counterterrorism Center resigns over Iran war
• DAL stock up 4%: Delta Airlines sees booming demand for travel despite oil price spike

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 20 points to 6716
• Gold down $4 to $5000
• WTI crude oil up $2.78 to $92.23
• US 10-year yields down 2.3 bps to 4.196%
• AUD leads, CAD lags

Today was the first day since the start of the war where stock markets and oil didn't move in…

Trump says the Iran campaign is "way ahead of schedule" and expects it to conclude "in a couple of weeks" and "not much longer".

At the outset, he said 4-5 weeks and we're not two-and-a-half weeks into it so a couple of weeks isn't exactly "way ahead of schedule". My fear -- and the one of most people watching energy -- is that Trump doesn't get to decide the timeline, Iran also does.

Trump called it a short-term excursion and that it will take 10 years for Iran to repair damage, but that it must be made permanent.

With all these timelines, it makes sense for Iran's military to hide out and wait out Trump. Then they can take control of Hormuz and regain some mobility once the US backs away.

Also notable is that in his message today, Netanyahu…

• High-yield 4.817%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.824%
• Tail -0.7 bps versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis points
• 2.76X versus 6 month average of 2.63X
• 9.24% versus 6 month average of 10.9%
• Directs 21.58 vs 6 month average of 27.0%
• Indirects 69.18% vs 6 month average of 62.1%

AUCTION GRADE: A-

The international buyers were strong taking nearly 70% of the issue. The bid to cover was stronger than the average. The tail showed a willingness to pay up to get the issue. The domestic buyers were lower-than-expected as they were outbid by the international buyers. Overall a solid auction.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Don't need any help excorting ships through Strait of Hormuz
• NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there
• Great support from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain on Iran.
• Israel has been very, very strong
• Iran has been acting up for 37, 47, 48 years.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Don't need any help excorting ships through Strait of Hormuz
• NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there
• Great support from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain on Iran.
• Israel has been very, very strong
• Iran has been acting up for 37, 47, 48 years.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump started a war without consulting any allies and then asked for their help. Evidently, they mostly told him they don't want to send ships to Hormuz despite his weekend pleas.

Now he's angry but says the US doesn't need help anyway.

The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East, this, despite the fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we are doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon. I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year…

Trump yesterday hinted that France would ultimately get involved in a Hormuz operation and now we're seeing signs that's true, though with some strange caveats:

• Once strikes have stopped, we are read to take the responsibility of an escort system in Hormuz
• Any role in Hormuz would be only if there is an end to hostilities
• Any such Hormuz mission would need Iranian coordination

This is a tough position to make sense of as it implies Iran would be involved rather than fighting it. Perhaps that makes sense if Iran splinters and a central government seeks peace while commanders near Hormuz continue to wage war? Or maybe it's Macron trying to walk a fine line where he doesn't really want to get involved while not directly rebuking Trump.

Oil is…

• Prior was -0.8%
• Index vs 70.9 prior

This is the lone notable US economic release today and with the Fed in blackout, all eyes are on Iran today.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), published monthly by the National Association of Realtors, tracks signed contracts on existing homes and serves as a leading indicator of closed sales, which typically follow one to two months later. The index is benchmarked to 100, representing the average level of contract activity in 2001.

In January 2026, pending home sales fell 0.8 percent month over month to an index reading of 70.9 — the lowest level in the history of the series. The decline also marked a 0.4 percent drop from a year earlier and came as a disappointment to forecasters, who had expected a…

We may be seeing the first real signs of opposition to the Iran war, and it's coming from a Trump-appointed official.

National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent -- a former Green Beret -- announced his resignation today. Before his nomination, he was chief of staff to Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard..

What's notable about him is that Democrats strongly opposed his nomination as he was called an "extremist" due to America First leanings and frequent appearances in right-wing podcasts. His wife was killed in the previous Trump administration by a suicide bomber in Syria.

His resignation underscores a growing rift within the MAGA movement about US military involvement and alliances.

In a letter on twitter, he…

J.P. Morgan is hosting its Industrials Conference today and airlines are at an interesting cross section of competing factors.

On the upside, demand appears to be booming. Delta CEO Ed Bastian repeatedly highlighted strength in bookings.

"We are seeing strength in every market that we look at," he said and emphasized that last week's sales were up 25% year-over-year. This quarter the company had eight of the 10 best sales days ever and five of those came after the war started. The strong demand spans corporate, international, premium leisure, main cabin and domestic, he said.

On the downside, the jump in oil prices punched a hole in the company's cost structure. Airline stocks have sunk since the start of the conflict as fuel typically…

J.P. Morgan is hosting its Industrials Conference today and airlines are at an interesting cross section of competing factors.

On the upside, demand appears to be booming. Delta CEO Ed Bastian repeatedly highlighted strength in bookings.

"We are seeing strength in every market that we look at," he said and emphasized that last week's sales were up 25% year-over-year. This quarter the company had eight of the 10 best sales days ever and five of those came after the war started. The strong demand spans corporate, international, premium leisure, main cabin and domestic, he said.

On the downside, the jump in oil prices punched a hole in the company's cost structure. Airline stocks have sunk since the start of the conflict as fuel typically…

As North American traders enter the session, markets are relatively mixed. U.S. equities are showing modest divergence in pre-market trading, yields are little changed, and oil prices are higher by roughly $3. The USD initially moved higher before giving those gains back, and is now trading near unchanged levels.

However, as is often the case ahead of a major event, price action is telling the real story. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision, where the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

On the economic calendar today, pending home sales will be released at 10 AM ET, with expectations at -0.5% versus -0.8% last month (index previously at 70.9).

Geopolitically, tensions remain elevated. The…