Market News

Headlines:

• European stocks slip back as oil and bond yields edge higher from session lows
• Gold extends the recovery amid renewed US-Iran deal hopes and dovish Fed's Williams comments
• French inflation jumps in September as HICP rises to 3.4%
• German state CPI readings point to inflation climbing back above 3% in September
• Germany retail sales rebound 1.3% in August after July slump
• German import prices jump 1.0% in August as cost pressures build
• Italy September preliminary CPI +4.2% vs +3.8% y/y expected
• Bitcoin remains stuck in a range as US-Iran talks cap gains despite Fed's Williams support
• Month-end FX flows could add to volatility with quarter-end rebalancing also in play

Markets:

• WTI crude up 1.5% to $90.72
• 10-year Treasury yields down 1.9 bps to…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Crude oil has come under renewed pressure as additional US-Iran talks helped ease the tensions. Both sides are still engaged in negotiations to amend Iran’s recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under certain conditions. The disagreement now reportedly centres on the sequencing of the steps rather than the components of the plan.

Iran's government spokesperson said that the Foreign Minister Araghchi presented to the cabinet "a US proposal" today. No further details were given, though. Traders will therefore keep a close eye on the headlines for more information.

In terms of immediate catalysts, yesterday the <a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/us-offers-up-to-40-million-barrels-from-the-spr/" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline"…

Easy come, easy go.

European stocks started the session on a better footing today but those gains have now faded, with regional indices slipping back as we approach midday in London. The Eurostoxx is now down 0.2%, Germany DAX down 0.1%, and France CAC 40 down by 0.5% on the day.

At the same time, US futures are also paring their slight advance with S&P 500 futures turning flat and Nasdaq futures being down 0.1%.

There isn't necessarily one big catalyst behind the turnaround in the risk mood. Instead, I think it reflects just how fragile the relief has been after the moves we've seen in oil and the bond market this week.

Earlier in the session, we saw both oil prices and bond yields ease from their recent highs. That helped to take some…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.28%, Shanghai Composite up 1.26% Hang Seng down 0.18% ASX up 0.79%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,212.57 (0.79%) Silver at $61.513 (0.60%), Brent Oil at 96.44 (0.28%), WTI Oil at 89.72 (0.39%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.234, UK 10-year yield at 5.4170, Germany 10-year yield at 3.6143

●        (USD)    JOLTS Job Openings

        7.08M to 7.23M  expected

Stock futures edged higher Tuesday evening after U.S. equities declined in the previous session as rising Treasury yields continued to pressure markets.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.16%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.16%. Nasdaq-100 futures…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin has been consolidating since last Wednesday, with ongoing US-Iran tensions keeping a lid of further gains. The backdrop has improved somewhat, however, as renewed optimism around the negotiations has helped ease concerns over an escalation.

The US and Iran remain engaged in talks aimed at reaching an agreement on Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days under certain conditions. The latest reports suggest that the main disagreement is now over the sequencing and implementation of the measures, rather than the substance of the proposal itself.

Bitcoin also received some support from Fed’s Williams yesterday. He said there…

The sanctions fight against Iran isn't just playing out through traditional means anymore. While oil exports and banks remain the bigger pressure points, we are starting to see stablecoins become part of the machinery used to move money around those restrictions.

For me, that's the biggest takeaway from a new report by Democratic investigators on the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The report looked at 846 crypto wallets sanctioned or targeted for seizure over links to Iran and its regional proxies, finding that 84% had transacted exclusively or nearly exclusively in USDT.

So, why does that matter exactly?

Let's try to frame things in a simpler manner. Now, USDT is essentially a digital token designed to track the US…

• Prior +3.3%
• HICP +4.1% vs +3.8% y/y expected
• Prior +3.2%

Italy's preliminary September inflation data showed a significant acceleration in price pressures, with the consumer price index rising 4.2% y/y, up from 3.3% in August. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.7%. The acceleration was primarily driven by energy, with regulated energy inflation rising from 18.6% to 25.9% and non-regulated energy inflation accelerating from 17.0% to 22.2%. Unprocessed food prices also picked up notably, while services inflation accelerated in both recreation and transport-related categories.

The monthly increase was again dominated by energy, with regulated energy prices rising 5.9% and non-regulated energy prices increasing 4.4%. Unprocessed food prices also…