Market News

• Q3 2026 real GDP growth estimate: 3.7% annualized, down from 5.0% on September 25.
• Real consumer spending growth estimate: 3.5%, down from 4.2%.
• Real gross private domestic investment growth estimate: 20.7%, up from 18.7%.
• Net exports contribution: −2.60 percentage points, compared with −1.37 percentage points previously.
• Next GDPNow update: Thursday, October 1.www.atlantafed.org

Today’s August goods trade figures help explain the downgrade:

• Advance goods trade balance: −$132.6 billion vs −$115.0 billion expected.
• July goods trade balance: −$118.9 billion.
• The deficit widened by $13.7 billion from July, and was $17.6 billion larger than expected. investinglive.com

The Atlanta Fed lowered its GDPNow estimate for third-quarter US growth to 3.7% from…

Crude oil futures are trading at $91.25, up $1.85 on the day, after trading between a low of $88.58 and a high of $91.55. The rebound has brought the price back toward an important retracement level, but buyers still have work to do before they can claim stronger technical control.

Sellers had their shot below support

On the hourly chart, the lows yesterday and today briefly moved below support at $88.79, but neither break could sustain downside momentum. The price quickly rebounded, suggesting buyers are defending the area near $88.75–$88.80.

Sellers had their shot below that floor. They could not keep the price below it.

That is an important distinction for traders. Breaking a technical level is one thing. Staying below it and building…

US weekly petroleum inventory changes for the week ending September 25:

• Crude oil: +0.922 million barrels vs −0.264 million expected. Prior +2.969 million.
• Distillates: −2.251 million barrels vs −0.190 million expected. Prior −0.428 million.
• Gasoline: −1.684 million barrels vs −0.485 million expected. Prior −1.686 million.
• Cushing crude stocks: +0.555 million barrels. Prior +2.266 million.

The US Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory figures were mixed, with an unexpected crude build offset by larger-than-expected declines in gasoline and distillate inventories.

Crude stocks increased by 922,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a modest draw. Inventories at Cushing also increased, although both builds were smaller than the…

In yesterday’s post and video on the S&P and Nasdaq Composite indices, I included the following image:

The message was straightforward. Both indices were trading in neutral technical territory. Buyers and sellers were battling, but neither side had taken firm control. Traders needed a shove.

Today, that shove has been to the upside.

Both indices have moved above and away from the technical levels that kept the bias neutral yesterday. That gives buyers the advantage. The question now is whether they can hold those breaks and keep the momentum going.

S&P moves above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages

For the S&P, yesterday’s close was between two key moving averages:

• 100-hour moving average: 7667.69 (blue line on the chart above)

• 200-hour…

Bitcoin buyers are making another play to the upside today. After finding support near $82,923, just above a key swing area, the price has pushed above both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages.

That improves the technical picture for the buyers. However, getting above those moving averages is one step. Staying above them—and building on the break—is what matters next.

The swing area provided the foundation

Over the last week or so, bitcoin extended above a key swing area between $81,517 and $82,833. That break helped propel the price toward highs near $87,334, reached on Monday and again on Wednesday of last week.

The buyers had their shot to extend higher from there, but momentum stalled. The price rotated back to the downside and…

• Prior +2.9%
• HICP +3.3% vs +3.2% y/y expected
• Prior +2.9%
• Core CPI Y/Y +2.4% vs +2.4% prior

Germany's inflation rate accelerated to 3.3% y/y in September, according to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), up from 2.9% in August. Consumer prices increased 0.6% m/m, compared with a 0.2% rise in August. The release therefore shows a renewed acceleration in headline price growth.

Energy prices were the main source of additional inflation pressure. Energy costs rose 14.9% from a year earlier, accelerating sharply from 10.5% in August and 8.3% in July.

By contrast, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.4%, suggesting that the September acceleration in headline inflation was concentrated heavily in…

• Prior was +38K
• Construction +15K
• Manufacturing +17K
• Natural resources and mining -1K
• Financial activities -16K
• Professional and business services -11K
• Education and health services +55K
• Leisure and hospitality +22K
• Wages for all workers +3.2% vs +3.2% prior
• Job stayers +3.0% vs +3.0% prior
• Job changers +4.8% vs +4.7% prior

This is a good reading after three weaker ones. The caveat is that the bulk of the job creation was in the government-adjucent sectors of health and education while white collar jobs slid.

For background, the ADP National Employment Report is a monthly measure of changes in U.S. private employment, produced by payroll services provider ADP. It draws on anonymized payroll records covering more than 26 million workers, providing a…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

In terms of idiosyncratic catalysts, Alpenglow, which is Solana's major consensus upgrade, went live on Solana's public testnet on September 24 and devnet on September 25, replacing TowerBFT with the new Votor consensus mechanism. The upgrade targets a reduction in finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. The rollout is occurring in phases and it’s one of the largest protocol upgrades in Solana’s history.

Looking ahead, Alpenglow testnet performance and bugs will be monitored as successful testing would strengthen the upgrade narrative, while problems could push back expectations. The most important event will be the mainnet…

The U.S. dollar is mixed to start the North American session on the final trading day of September and the third quarter. Sterling is leading the gains against the greenback, while the Australian dollar is the weakest of the major currencies in the morning snapshot.

U.S. Treasury yields are modestly lower, but equity futures are struggling to find a common direction. The S&P is little changed, while the Dow and Nasdaq are pointing lower.

The overnight news brings competing signals. Improving Middle East oil supply offers some relief on the energy front, but inflation remains a concern. Australia’s headline inflation accelerated, while the European data included stronger UK growth and another upside inflation surprise from Italy.

Middle East:…

• Prior estimate 1.5%

• Prior was 3.3%
• Headline y/y 3.4% vs 3.7% expected (3.7% prior)
• Headline m/m +0.3% vs +0.4% expected (+0.2% prior)

Core PCE (excluding food & energy):

• Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior +0.2%

Consumer spending and income for August:

• Personal income +0.2% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.4%
• Personal spending +0.9% vs +0.8% expected. Prior month +0.2%
• Real personal spending % vs +0.0% prior

This is a big sigh of relief for the Federal Reserve and takes away the pressure to hike rates in October. The US dollar is falling across the baord and Treasury yields are 4-5 bps lower across the curve. We're seeing bids in stocks and gold as well.

For background, the Personal Consumption Expenditures report, commonly called the PCE report, is part of the…

• Prior was -118.9 billion