Market News

U.S. stocks closed mixed on the final trading day of September, with the Nasdaq indices holding onto modest gains while the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 finished lower.

The Dow fell 441 points to its lowest closing level since early June. Only eight of its 30 components advanced, as selling continued across much of the index. Six of the Magnificent Seven stocks moved higher, helping the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 finish in positive territory. Meta was the exception.

The closing session reflected September’s broader divide. Selected technology and semiconductor stocks attracted buyers, while many consumer, financial and industrial names struggled. The Nasdaq indices finished the month higher, but the Dow and small-cap Russell 2000…

The guidance matters more than the quarter itself, because it suggests memory demand and pricing are running ahead of what the market had priced in. A first-quarter revenue outlook well above consensus is likely to keep attention on chipmakers tied to data-centre spending. Asian memory producers, which often trade in sympathy with Micron's read on pricing, are also in focus. The softer guided gross margin is the one detail that could temper enthusiasm, so call commentary on supply, pricing and capital spending will shape how the shares and the wider sector react.

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Micron beat on every headline measure and guided revenue sharply higher, with automotive and embedded the standout and a slightly lighter margin outlook the only blemish.

Summary:

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In a TruthSocial post, Donald Trump is calling for Jerome Powell to resign from the Fed Board over alleged mismanagement and cost overruns in the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation. He says he has asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to review an inspector general’s report and determine what action to take.

• Trump cites a projected cost of at least $2.5 billion and alleged shortcomings in cost estimates and construction safeguards.
• He threatens a government lawsuit if Powell does not resign.
• His suggestion that costs could reach $3.5–$4 billion is his own forecast.

Analysis: Trump is turning the Fed renovation dispute into another pressure point against Powell. The key development is his statement that he has asked the attorney general to…

The USDCAD has been trending higher since bottoming on September 8. Over that stretch, the price has climbed from 1.3759 to a fresh monthly high of 1.4224, reached within the last hour of trading. That represents a gain of 465 pips, or approximately 3.38%.

Today, however, sellers had an opportunity to interrupt that trend.

They had their shot. They missed.

The downside break failed to find follow-through

During the late Asian-Pacific and early European sessions, the price broke below a rising trendline near 1.4192. The selling then pushed the pair below its 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.4168, and down to a session low of 1.4155.

Those breaks gave sellers an opening. Breaking the trendline was the first step. Moving below the…

Comments from US President Trump on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz:

• US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• You will see things happening very soon (regarding Iran); there has been historic flows of oil out of Hormuz in the last three days.

Analysis: Trump’s message is that the US has control of the situation, with developments on Iran coming soon. However, he offers no specifics on what those developments might be. The comments leave open whether the next step involves negotiations, military action, or arrangements governing passage through the strait.

For oil traders, the key is whether his claim of strong oil flows translates into sustained, reliable shipments. That would ease concerns over supply disruptions. But “very soon”…

The USDCHF is trading up 0.12% on the day, putting the pair on track for its sixth consecutive daily gain. The rally has carried the price from a recent low of 0.81822 to yesterday’s high of 0.83580, a gain of approximately 2.15%, or 176 pips.

That is a solid move in a short period of time. However, the buyers have now reached a level where they need to prove they can keep the momentum going.

Policy divergence supports the dollar

Fundamentally, the Swiss National Bank left rates unchanged at its latest meeting. In contrast, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points and signaled that another hike could come before year-end.

With the market pricing in around a 40% chance of an October hike and a near-100% chance of a hike by year-end,…

Goldman Sachs has changed its forecast for the next Fed rate hike from October to December.

Yesterday, John Williams, the New York Fed president and a permanent FOMC voter, said one more rate hike this year may be enough, provided the economy develops as expected. However, he sees “no need for urgency” after September’s hike, giving the Fed time to review more data before acting again.

His outlook includes:

• Growth: GDP rising 2.25% this year, with economic momentum strong and potentially strengthening.
• Employment: Unemployment at 4% during 2027.
• Inflation: 3.5% this year, returning to the 2% target in 2028.
• Risks: Growing AI investment could add inflation pressure. The Fed must prevent supply shocks from making higher inflation persistent.

The…

European stocks finished Wednesday’s session lower across the major indices. France led the declines, followed by Italy and Germany. The UK’s FTSE 100 held up better but still ended in negative territory.

The closing levels showed:

• Germany’s DAX: 25,199.20, down 200.02 points or 0.79%

• France’s CAC 40: 7,964.52, down 71.36 points or 0.89%

• UK’s FTSE 100: 10,606.01, down 30.69 points or 0.29%

• Spain’s IBEX 35: 19,426.20, down 91.30 points or 0.47%

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: 51,371.97, down 432.98 points or 0.84%

The weakness in Europe contrasts with gains in the broader U.S. indices at the time of the snapshot. The Nasdaq Composite is leading the move higher, while the Dow is little changed:

• Dow industrial average: 51,357.15, up 2.02 points, essentially…

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Comments from the ECB’s Schnabel cross the wires:

• High costs passed through to consumers more quickly when economy resilient.
• Robust credit dynamics suggest that financial conditions are not yet restrictive.
• Possible economy responds more to the recent global yield rise than assumed; would dampen price pressures.
• Can return inflation to target more gradually when expectations anchored.

Analysis: The message is mixed. A resilient economy allows businesses to pass higher costs through to consumers more quickly, keeping inflation pressures in play. Meanwhile, robust credit growth suggests financial conditions are not yet restrictive. Those comments lean hawkish, as they question how much monetary policy is restraining demand.

However, Schnabel…

• Dallas Fed PCE: 1.9% vs 2.2% expected.
• Prior revised to 1.9% from 2.2%.

The August Dallas Fed PCE inflation reading came in at 1.9%, below the 2.2% expected and equal to the revised prior reading of 1.9% (was 2.2%), according to the supplied release table.

The softer reading points toward easing underlying inflation pressures.

Quick analysis: The downside surprise could ease pressure on the Fed to raise rates but there is still work to do.

Earlier today, the August Personal Consumption Expenditures report also showed inflation below expectations but numbers that were higher than the Dallas numbers:

• Core PCE y/y: 3.0% vs 3.3% expected. Prior 3.3%.
• Core PCE m/m: +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior +0.2%.
• Headline PCE y/y: 3.4% vs 3.7% expected. Prior…

In June, an OpenAI agent searching for data on healthcare and government spending accessed a restricted part of an Australian government portal linked to Medicare. After being denied access several times, it apparently tried to bypass the restrictions in not the most ethical way.

Other AI agents also tried to hack into the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, the University of New Mexico, Data USA, and three US government websites, including those of the Department of Education, the Census Bureau, and the SEC. And to top it all off, OpenAI models escaped controlled testing environments and tried to break into systems belonging to several companies,…