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Stalled diplomacy tends to keep a risk premium in crude, and the reported US view that major combat could resume after the midterms gives oil a longer-dated supply risk to price even as physical flows recover. Part of Tuesday's early softening in crude was linked to signs that diplomacy remained possible, so a stall removes some of that support. The US naval blockade sits at the centre of Iran's demands, which means any movement on it would matter for shipping and export flows. The swing between optimism and denial within a single day on Monday also points to headline-driven volatility, with traders likely to react to each new statement from Washington and Tehran.

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A week of Qatari shuttle diplomacy has left the US and Iran no closer,…

Boeing rose circa 2.5% in after-hours trading, while Northrop Grumman slipped by nearly 5%, so the market is treating the award as a clear relative win for Boeing. Lockheed Martin keeps its F-35 franchise but is shut out of the next generation, which leaves the sector split into a Boeing-led fighter business and Northrop's bomber and space franchises. Newsquawk commentary cautioned that reactions to awards like this are often muted, because development work has historically been fixed-price and Boeing's record on such programs includes overruns and charges, so the split between development and later production margins matters. The next signals are defence appropriations and manufacturing execution, given the program's history of funding…

Crude settling at session lows after a sell-off through the US session suggests near-term momentum favours supply relief, although a double-digit monthly gain for Brent shows the war risk premium is still firmly in the price. One trading executive noted that the more oil flows out of the Middle East, the less bargaining power Iran holds in talks with the US, a framing that ties the physical recovery directly to the diplomatic track. Diesel is drawing the most policy attention, with US futures firmer even as European futures edged lower, and any regulatory relief or emergency stock releases could keep pressure on the diesel complex. The risk for bulls is that additional policy supply arrives while exports normalise, and the risk for bears…

A voluntary accord with no legal penalties is likely to be read as lowering the near-term risk of binding federal rules for the largest AI developers, a supportive signal for names such as Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet and Palantir, though the review process is still lightly detailed. The larger open questions are the promised AI czar and the proposed ten-person oversight committee, either of which could add scrutiny, and Congress, which is on recess and unlikely to pass comprehensive AI legislation before the elections. The policy risks closest to earnings are data centre backlash and electricity costs, and Trump's passing reference to supplying oil and gas keeps energy inside the AI buildout story. Separately, Politico reported that Nvidia and…

Markets priced roughly a two-in-three chance of an October hike and a much higher chance for December as the speeches landed. Williams's "no urgency" message nudged the US dollar index modestly lower, though the currency stayed firm on the day. Rising hike bets and oil-driven inflation fears have pushed US bond yields to multi-year highs, and Barr's reference to high energy prices keeps crude at the centre of the inflation debate. Any oil rally would strengthen the hawks' case, while a pullback would give the more patient officials more room to wait. ---Fed speakers agreed inflation is too high, but split on timing, with Barr and Goolsbee sounding the more hawkish and Williams counselling patience after September's hike.Summary:

• Four Fed…

• JOLTS job openings 7.079M vs 7.225M estimate
• Sept US consumer confidence 81.9 vs 89.2 expected
• US July CaseShiller 20-city house price index +2.5% vs 2.2% expected
• Canada July GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% expected
• Deutsche Bank sees a copper crunch coming — and says $10/lb may be needed to fix it
• US offers up to 40 million barrels from the SPR
• Fed’s Barr expects GDP growth to pick up in the second half of the year
• BoE’s Taylor questions whether a single “insurance hike” would be seen as the start of a series
• Fed's Musalem touts having a framework as the backbone of communication strategy
• Goolsbee: 5-1/2 years above target is "playing with fire"
• Fed's Williams: One more hike likely this year is likely enough

Markets:

• US 30-year yields up 3 bps to 5.59%
• Gold up $56…

The Australian dollar is the most direct read-through. A print at or above forecast would strengthen the case for further tightening and could support the currency and short-dated yields. A softer result, particularly in trimmed mean, would invite doubts about how far the central bank needs to go. Because the RBA has already moved, the data now shapes expectations for the next decision rather than the last one. For oil, the relevance is indirect, through the Australian dollar and broader risk sentiment.

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Australia's August CPI arrives one day after the RBA hiked, with headline inflation forecast to accelerate to 4.0% while the underlying trimmed mean gauge is expected to hold at 3.6%.

Summary:

• Australia publishes August CPI at 01:30 GMT on…

A move in the official manufacturing PMI back above 50 would be read as a modest positive for China-sensitive assets, including the Australian dollar, the yuan and industrial metals. For oil, the question is whether the data changes the view on Chinese fuel demand, and a soft non-manufacturing print would keep demand worries alive. With mainland participants away for a week from Thursday, any surprise could be amplified in offshore trade. A miss on the official readings alongside a softer RatingDog services print would likely leave traders cautious into the break.

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China's September PMIs land in a single session before the holiday, with official manufacturing forecast to edge back above 50 while private-sector services momentum is seen…

It's a packed data agenda during the Asian timezone today with Chinese data releases ahead of the week long holiday that begins tomorrow along with inflation data from Australia (following the RBA rate hike yesterday)  and much more. 

I'll come back with previews of the Chinese and Australian data separately. 

U.S. stocks closed with mixed results on Tuesday, with strength in semiconductor and selected technology shares standing out against modest declines in most major indices.

The Nasdaq 100 was the exception, gaining 0.21%. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.09%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.17%. The Dow fell 132 points, and the Russell 2000 was the weakest of the five indices, losing 0.35%.

The closing changes were relatively small, but some individual stock moves were anything but. Applied Materials, Marvell, KLA, Arm and ASML posted solid gains. Meta also advanced more than 3%. Buyers were active in those names, even as the broader indices struggled to move higher.

U.S. stock closing levels

• Dow Industrial Average: down 132.03 points (-0.26%) to…

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have each seen pockets of strength and weakness in trading today, but neither buyers nor sellers have been able to sustain control. Early gains gave way to selling, while the subsequent rebound has brought both indices back toward the middle of their daily trading ranges.

The intraday swings show the two-way nature of the price action:

• Nasdaq Composite: Up 99.34 points at the session high and down 102.43 points at the session low. The index is currently down around 9.20 points at 26,813.72.

• S&P 500: Up nearly 16 points at the session high and down 30.15 points at the session low. The index is currently down around 11 points at 7,673.14.

From a technical perspective, both indices are trading inside areas that…

Some dovish stuff from Williams is moving markets

• US economic momentum strong and may be strengthening
• AI investment issues are an increasingly big issue for inflation
• Sees US GDP at 2.25% this year, unemployment at 4% over 2027
• Fed policy can make sure impact of supply shocks not long lasting
• Sees inflation at 3.5% this year, hit 2% target in 2028
• Fed must make sure high inflation does not become entrenched
• Imperative to get inflation back to 2%
• Fed will respond to data when setting monetary policy
• If economy meets expectations, one further hike likely this year
• More data will help the Fed decide what's next for rate policy
• Sees 'no need for urgency' after September rate hike

New York Fed President John Williams says there's no urgency to move again…