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Axios reports:

A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.

Trump today said they weren't talking about a deal but it would make sense that both sides would at least want to establish some channels.

The Axios report says it's not clear how substantive the messages passed were but they're the first known communication.

The foreign min has repeatedly tweeted throughout the war.

Yesterday he wrote:

Iran has neither sought a truce nor talks. Such claims are delusional. Our Powerful Armed Forces will keep firing until POTUS realizes that illegal war he's imposing on both Americans and…

• On the Strait of Hormuz, potential coalition, Rubio will announce a countries.
• Spoke to Macron on Sunday. Rates France effort an 8 on a scale of 10.
• Very surprised with the UK
• Was not happy with the UK. I think they will be involved.
• Iran wants to make a deal.
• On Iran, I don't know if they are ready yet.
• Ship owners don't want to take a chance driving through the Strait
• We are pounding the coast hard
• We don't know if the Supreme Leader is dead or not
• We don't know if they've set any mines
• We don't know their leaders
• I don't know if they're ready yet
• They're negotiating
• I think we're going to get Strait going very soon
• We do have other nations coming in
• They weren't supposed to go after all these other countries, we were shocked
• When this is over oil…

• Continued in full force of the past few days
• USS struck more than 7000 targets
• Have hit mostly commercial and military targets.
• Have 3 missile and drone manufacturing sites today.
• Have destroyed 30 mine laying ships
• Not sure if any mines have been dropped in.
• Encourage other nations to come and help the US
• Numerous countries have told me they are on the way.
• Some nations enthusiastic, some aren't.
• Expect very few shots retaken, Iran has very few shots left
• We are double the output by 2 times of any country.
• Not sure countries want me to say if they are helping

FYI Top Producers (barrels/day)

• United States — ~13–14M bbl/day (record highs driven by Permian Basin shale)
• Saudi Arabia — ~9.6M bbl/day
• Russia — ~10.75M bbl/day (redirecting exports to India…

Trading is 90% preparation and 10% execution so let's spend some time preparing for an end to war. The market is clearly optimistic today but that could just be an unwind of fears of weekend escalation. There are so many moving parts here and iterations of how it could end but let's make one simple assumption: The free flow of oil through Hormuz is re-established. Whether that's a Trump TACO or Iran capitulation is largely irrelevant in terms of most market moves.

So let's say the oil gets moving again and the headline hits. What are the trades you want to think about?

1) Short oil

This is the obvious one and it's the big one. It's the torque on any kind of post-war trade and the clearest expression of war trades. May WTI is down $4.23 to…

Trading is 90% preparation and 10% execution so let's spend some time preparing for an end to war. The market is clearly optimistic today but that could just be an unwind of fears of weekend escalation. There are so many moving parts here and iterations of how it could end but let's make one simple assumption: The free flow of oil through Hormuz is re-established. Whether that's a Trump TACO or Iran capitulation is largely irrelevant in terms of most market moves.

So let's say the oil gets moving again and the headline hits. What are the trades you want to think about?

1) Short oil

This is the obvious one and it's the big one. It's the torque on any kind of post-war trade and the clearest expression of war trades. May WTI is down $4.23 to…

• Prior was 36

• Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior
• Prospective buyers 25 vs 22 prior
• Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 46 prior

The headline number has been sliding — the index fell to 36 in February, down from 37 in January, which itself dropped from 39 in December. That's now 22 consecutive months below the 50 line that separates positive from negative builder sentiment, and it came in below the consensus forecast of 38.

I'm surprised to see improvement in this survey given higher oil prices and borrowing costs.

The main culprit is affordability. High price-to-income ratios, elevated land and construction costs, and mortgage rates that — while improving — remain well above pandemic-era levels are all weighing on…

Trump posted on Truth Social:

News Conference today, prior to Trump Kennedy Center Board Meeting. Thank you!

I still can't find a specific start time published for today's meeting. None of the reporting includes a scheduled time — just that it's happening today (Monday, March 16) at the White House. The exact time doesn't appear to have been made public, which fits with the fact hat this is a closed board meeting rather than a public event.

If I had to guess, White House meetings of this kind typically happen during normal business hours — likely late morning or early afternoon, somewhere in the 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. ET range. But that's purely speculation on my part.

Obviously any comments about the war will be critical. Perhaps he's already…

• Prior was +0.7%
• Capacity utilization 76.3% vs 76.2% exp
• Prior utilization 76.2% (revised to 76.3%)
• Manufacturing output +0.2% vs +0.1% exp

This is slightly ahead of expectations but won't be a market mover.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• We had in-depth, candid talks

• Talked about bilateral tariffs under new circumstances

• Talked about possible extension of tariff suspensions, other matters

• Talked about concerns of trade, economic issues

• U.S. talked about on recent tariff adjustments

• Chinese side voiced concerns

• Both sides agreed to maintain stability of tariff levels

• Discussed mechanisms on trade, investment

• Both sides discussed trade, economic concerns of each other

• We noticed U.S. roll out of restrictive measures on China

• China raised representations on Section 301 probes

This is generally good news, particularly the 'consensus' part. I tend to think these are the basically the headlines and part of a deal that would have been announced with Trump and Xi. That was going to be a…

• Lowest reading since Sept 1.6%
• Prior was +2.3%
• CPM m/m +0.5% vs +0.7% expected
• Prior CPI m/m 0.0%

Core measures:

• BOC core 2.3% vs 2.6% prior
• BOC core m/m +0.4% vs +0.2% prior
• Core CPI % m/m % vs +0.1% prior
• CPI median +2.3% vs +2.4% expected (prior was 2.5%)
• CPI trim +2.3% vs 2.4% expected (prior was 2.4%)
• CPI common 2.4% vs 2.7% prior
• Gasoline prices -14.2% vs -16.7% y/y prior
• Gasoline prices +3.6% m/m vs -13.8% m/m prior
• Shelter +1.5% vs +1.7% y/y prior

Canadian headline CPI inflation has decelerated markedly in early 2026, falling to 1.8% year-over-year in February from 2.3% in January and 2.4% in December 2025. Much of the recent volatility reflects base-year distortions tied to the federal government's temporary GST/HST tax holiday, which ran from…

• Prior month 7.1

Details from the NY Fed

• New orders: 6.4 versus 5.8 last month , little changed, indicating a modest increase in demand.

• Shipments: -6.9 versus -1.0 last month, down 6 points, showing declining shipments.

• Unfilled orders: 10.8 versus 9.1 last month, up 2 points, suggesting backlogs increased.

• Delivery times: 13.7 versus 4.0 last month, up 10 points, indicating longer delivery times.

• Inventories: 6.9 versus 7.1 last month. Increased, pointing to higher stock levels at manufacturers.

• Supply availability: -3.9, slightly worse than the prior month.

• Employment: 5.8 versus a 4.0 last month, up 2 points, signaling modest job growth.

• Average workweek: 1.9 versus 2.1 last month, little changed, indicating slightly longer hours.

• Prices paid…

Bessent says that:

• We will see if Trump's visit will take place as scheduled
• Markets should not assume any rescheduling is because of any conflict between the US and China
• We discussed a new tariffs regime in meeting with Chinese counterparts over the weekend
• We do not want to decouple but are doing a strategic change on trade relations
• Any delay to Trump's visit would not be because of the Strait of Hormuz topic
• If the visit is rescheduled, it would be Trump's decision to stay in the US amid the Iran war

More to come..

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.