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Both economies face the same fuel shock, but Bullock treats it as a reason for concern, while the RBNZ majority is betting weak demand will contain it. That difference in reaction is what drives the divergence. A widening gap in expected rates generally supports AUD/NZD, and a hike from the RBA next week, with the RBNZ waiting until December, would extend it. The main risk to the move is the RBNZ’s 4-3 split: hawkish signals from Breman at the press conference, or a firm December hike signal, could pull the cross back quickly. A softer tone from the RBA next week would do the same. Further gains in crude would test both banks, but the RBA currently looks the more willing to respond.

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Earlier:

• RBNZ holds OCR at 2.75% in surprise 4-3 vote,…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBOC injects 1 trillion yuan through overnight reverse repos
• PBOC injects 151 billion yuan through 7 day reverse repos @1.4%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

By saying it is hard to completely look through supply shocks, Bullock signalled that the RBA is less willing to ignore the energy-driven jump in prices than the RBNZ was earlier. Any further rise in crude therefore adds directly to the case for an RBA hike. Her blunt language (more here earlier), together with firmer core inflation and her view that demand still exceeds supply, supports pricing for a move on November 2 and 3, and backs the Australian dollar and front-end yields. The contrast with the RBNZ’s hold sharpens the policy divergence, which favours AUD/NZD. Bullock’s refusal to give guidance leaves some uncertainty, but the overall tone tilts clearly hawkish.

--- Bullock didn’t pre-announce a hike, but “far too high” and…

The key issue for oil is whether the Houthi claim turns into confirmed lost supply. For now, the move reflects headline risk on a refinery Saudi Arabia hasn’t confirmed was hit, so prices are exposed to a reversal if the damage proves limited, or a sharper rally if refining capacity is knocked out. A hit to a facility of this size would matter more for refined products such as diesel than for crude, which fits the shipping and refining strains UBS and the RBNZ flagged this week. OPEC+ holding steady on Sunday, with most core members already below target, offers little cushion if supply is disrupted. Higher crude also feeds straight into the inflation concerns voiced today by RBA Governor Bullock (here and again here).

Oil clawed back some…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

Oil leads the hawkish read. Bullock tied the deterioration in the inflation outlook directly to re-escalating Middle East conflict and higher energy prices, so further gains in crude feed straight into the case for another RBA hike. By saying inflation will likely exceed the August base case, and asking openly whether current tightening is enough, she leaves the November 2 and 3 meeting live and supports the Australian dollar and front-end yields. Her view that the labour market is tighter than judged, despite unemployment rising, weakens the dovish argument that slowing growth will do the work. Today’s quarterly trimmed mean now becomes the decisive test: a firm print would likely push markets further toward a November hike.

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Ahead:

• <a target="_self" class="article-link article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/news/australia-cpi-preview-banks-see-1-0-core-rise-above-the-rba-s-0-8-forecast/" style="font-size-adjust: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border: 0;margin: 0;padding: 0;cursor: pointer;text-decoration: none"…

Australia CPI, September 2026 / Q3 

Quarterly (Q3)

• CPI q/q: 1.3% vs. 1.3% expected (prior 0.6%)
• CPI y/y: 3.9% vs. 3.9% expected (prior 3.9%)
• Trimmed mean q/q: 1.0% vs. 1.0% expected (prior 0.8%)
• Trimmed mean y/y: 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected (prior 3.5%)

Monthly (September)

• CPI m/m: 0.8% vs. 0.7% expected (prior 0.4%)
• CPI y/y: 3.9% vs. 4.2% expected (prior 4.0%)
• CPI index: 104.34 (prior 103.50)
• Trimmed mean m/m: 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected (prior 0.2%)
• Trimmed mean y/y: 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected (prior 3.6%)
• Weighted median m/m: 1.0% (prior 0.7%)
• Weighted median y/y: 3.6% (prior 3.6%)

Earlier, a hawkish Bullock:

• RBA’s Bullock: oil shock means inflation above August forecasts, Board meets next week

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Background to this data:

• Australia CPI preview: banks see 1.0% core…

Oil is the clearest driver of the headline beat, and Bullock tied higher energy prices directly to a worse inflation outlook only minutes before the release, so any further rise in crude adds to the case for tightening. The bigger signal for markets is the core reading. A trimmed mean that rose to 3.7%, when the RBA had expected it to stabilise, supports pricing for a hike on November 2 and 3, and backs the Australian dollar and front-end yields. The slightly softer weighted median takes a little off that, but not enough to change the overall message. AUD/NZD traders also face the RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT, where a widely expected hike could limit any relative move in the Aussie.

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Earlier:

• RBA’s Bullock: oil shock means inflation above…

BlackRock’s view supports the front end of the Treasury curve. If the Fed sounds less aggressive than markets fear this week, two-year yields have the most room to fall, which would steepen the curve. Its caution on the long end, where it still sees yields rising as competition for capital intensifies, matches the heavy-supply theme flagged this week by Fitch and S&P. Neutral positioning on US equities, with a continued tilt to AI and tech, suggests BlackRock expects volatility around policy, not a broad selloff. A dovish-leaning Fed would also cap the dollar. Higher oil remains the main risk to the “less hawkish than priced” view, since further energy-driven inflation would test it.

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Earlier:

• FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch…

For the Australian dollar and front-end yields, the reaction is likely to hinge on the quarterly trimmed mean, not the headline monthly print. A reading at or above the expected 1.0% in the quarter would run ahead of the pace implied by the RBA’s August forecasts and strengthen the case for a hike at the November 2 and 3 meeting. A softer core reading would give the RBA room to wait, even if fuel-driven headline inflation runs hot. A gap between the monthly and quarterly headline figures can trigger an early reaction that later reverses, as traders look past the headline to the core numbers. Oil remains the main driver of headline inflation, so energy prices will shape how hot the monthly figure runs in the months ahead.

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Earlier:

• <a target="_self" class="article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/news/australia-cpi-preview-banks-see-1-0-core-rise-above-the-rba-s-0-8-forecast/" style="font-size-adjust: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;border: 0;margin: 0;padding: 0;cursor: pointer;text-decoration: none"…

The operating beat and a shareholder return of about 100 trillion won give the stock strong support, and the buyback and cancellation of more than 60 trillion won stands out as a structural tailwind for SK Hynix shares and the Kospi, where it is a heavyweight. The net profit miss is the main source of headline risk until the cause is clear. The price data is the bigger signal for the sector: DRAM up by a high-20% rate in a single quarter, together with a 2027 demand outlook of around 25% growth, supports the memory upcycle for Samsung Electronics and Micron. It also confirms that AI infrastructure spending is still feeding through to component costs, which matters for hyperscaler capex budgets and the heavy AI-related debt issuance…

HBM helps explain why the memory upcycle has been so strong. Because it absorbs production capacity, AI demand lifts prices across the whole DRAM market, not just at the high end, which supports earnings at SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron and weighs on margins for PC, phone and server makers that buy memory. The concentration of supply makes the Kospi and the wider Korean market unusually sensitive to AI spending, and changes in HBM market share between SK Hynix and Samsung can move both stocks sharply. The main risk is the cycle turning: if new capacity and three-way competition in HBM4 catch up with demand, pricing power could fade quickly, as it has in past memory cycles.

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Earlier, stunning results:

• SK Hynix Q3 operating profit beats at…