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• We've made a lot of progress on Iran
• We can restart military campaign
• That is not what Trump or Iran wants to do.
• Iran wants to make a deal but won't know until they sign a deal

Earlier, seeming to lean more toward a another "hit" These are less alarming.

The Dow is down -0.21%, the S&P down -0.22% and the Nasdaq is down -0.40%

Japan Finance Minister Mira Katayama says:

• Ready to take decisive action on forex

BOJ Ueda says:

• Latest GDP data are mostly in line with our forecast, Middle East situation has begun to impact.
• Need to closely monitor signs on upward price pressure.
• Aware that long-term interest rates are rising rapidly.
• When asked about BOJ tapering plans, will assess market situation, functionality.
• Will take appropriate monetary policy to achieve inflation target.

The USDJPY has dipped on the latest news, but the pair remains above the day’s low near 158.64. That keeps sellers from taking full control for now, but the downside levels are clearly defined.

The first key target comes at yesterday’s low near 158.60, followed by the rising 100-hour moving average…

The on again-off again-on again cycle continues. Bombing is on again with reports that it is only a matter of time.

Less than 24 hours ago, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia talked Trump out of an apparent bombing.

Pres. Trump is speaking on many topics:

• We may have to give Iran another hit, not sure
• Was hours from attacking Iran
• Iran is begging to make a deal.
• Don't know about changing the regime in Cuba. Cuba really needs help
• Everyone tells me that the Iran war is unpopular, but I think it's very popular
• Gulf states and Isreal are negotiating
• Must ensure Iran does not have nuclear weapons
• Xi promised he is not sending weapons to Iran
• There may be other initiatives to keep gas prices in check
• Iran does not have capacity to retaliate

The President and war staff were presumably a day away from bombing Iran again yesterday, but Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar asked for a delay on hopes for continued peace talks.

Meanwhile the UAE defense minister today said that…

• Prior month 1.7% revised from 1.5%

• Pending home sales (April): +1.4% MoM vs 1.0% estimate.
• Pending home sales (April): +3.2% YoY

Regional breakdown:

• Northeast: +6.6% MoM, -0.6% YoY
• Midwest: +3.0% MoM, +2.7% YoY
• South: -0.7% MoM, +4.7% YoY
• West: +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY

Top metro area gains in pending home sales YoY:

• Boston-Cambridge-Newton: +10.3%
• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach: +9.4%
• Oklahoma City: +8.6%
• Milwaukee-Waukesha: +7.4%
• Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk: +7.2%
• Raleigh-Cary: +5.7%
• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington: +5.5%
• Washington-Arlington-Alexandria: +5.4%
• Columbus: +5.4%
• Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia: +5.1%

Pending home sales moved modestly higher in April as buyers cautiously stepped back into the housing market despite elevated…

• Trump administration not in a hurry to extend China trade truce due to expire in November
• U.S.-China truce on critical minerals and tariff rates can be extended through subsequent meetings this year
• New Section 301 tariffs would not be a problem for China as long as they do not exceed prior agreed levels from November
• U.S.-China board of investment protocol will seek to identify deals that would not need CFIUS national security reviews or investment restrictions
• China understands Section 301 trade investigations may bring U.S. tariffs back to levels prior to Supreme Court decision to annul some duties
• Trump will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng prior to Xi’s September White House visit to work out more details on trade…

NATO warns alliance buildup will take years. The top NATA commander is speaking and says:

• As the European pillar of NATO gets stronger, this allows the U.S. to reduce its presence in Europe and limit itself to providing those critical capabilities allies cannot yet provide
• So we should expect a redeployment of U.S. forces over time as allies build their capacities
• As for the exact timeline, it is going to vary broadly across a number of different capabilities as nations meet their spending commitments and meet their capability targets
• I cannot give you an exact timeline, it's going to be an ongoing process for several years

The overall tone from NATO officials points toward a long-term structural transition within the alliance rather than…

More from Treas Sec. Bessent:

• U.S. expects European partners to support Iran sanctions by blocking Iran’s financiers, shutting its bank branches, and unmasking its shell companies
• Countries in the Middle East and Asia also need to root out Iran’s shadow banking networks
• U.S. Treasury is reviewing sanctions list to make it easier for financial institutions to focus on the most sophisticated terrorist financing and sanctions evasion schemes
• Some U.S. sanctions designations are obsolete and outdated, and may cause unintended consequences

The jury ruled against Elon Musk against Sam Altman and OpenAI

• Jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman.
• Case was thrown out because the claims were filed after the statute of limitations expired.
• Jury deliberated for less than two hours.
• Musk alleged OpenAI “stole a charity” by shifting from nonprofit to for-profit.
• OpenAI argued Musk knew about and supported the for-profit structure.
• OpenAI claimed Musk turned against the company after failing to gain control.
• Musk’s legal team said it reserves the right to appeal.
• Musk sought removal of Sam Altman and Greg Brockman from leadership roles.
• Musk also sought reversal of OpenAI’s governance changes and more than $180 billion in damages.
• Trial…

Treasury Secretary Bessent said that

• G7 finance meeting talks were constructive,
• He is confident the Bank of Japan Gov. Ueda will successfully guide monetary policy.
• He added that "excess" volatility in the Forex market is undesirable.
• He feels that the fundamentals of the Japanese economy are strong

The initial reaction has seen the USDJPY move lower after the pair pushed above the 159.00 midpoint of the broader 158.00–160.00 trading range that confined price action from early March through the end of April. That break higher kept buyers in control short term, but the move is now being tested.

On the downside, the first key target comes in near 158.60 — the low from the North American session yesterday at 158.599. Just below that, the…

• Prior week 4 week average 33K
• Current week's 4 week average

Employment remains solid or at the very least, not reversing hard.

The ADP NER Pulse is a newer high-frequency labor market indicator tied to the ADP National Employment Report (NER). It is designed to give traders and economists a more real-time look at hiring trends in the U.S. private sector between the traditional monthly payroll reports.

Unlike the standard monthly ADP report, the NER Pulse tracks the week-over-week change in private employment using a four-week moving average. The goal is to smooth out weekly volatility while still giving markets an earlier read on whether hiring is accelerating or slowing.

The data is pulled directly from ADP’s payroll processing system,…

• Prior was -8.4% (revised to -7.8%)

In March, the total value of building permits issued in Canada increased $1.3 billion (+10.3%) to $13.5 billion. The increase in construction intentions was led by the non-residential sector (+$1.5 billion) and tempered by the residential sector (-$270.6 million).

On a constant dollar basis, the total value of building permits issued in March rose 10.1% from the previous month and was up 4.8% on a year-over-year basis.

In the first quarter of 2026, the total value of building permits increased $445.7 million to $39.0 billion, up 1.1% from the previous quarter. On a constant dollar basis, the total value of building permits was up 0.5% to $35.6 billion.

For background on the permits data, Statistics Canada's…