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The sell-off shows how much was already priced into HSBC after a strong run. Without a guidance upgrade, a revenue miss and stalled wealth growth were enough to trigger profit-taking. The read-across for Hong Kong and Asian banks is margin pressure: costlier time deposits threaten interest income just as the Fed’s hiking path keeps funding costs high. Oil matters indirectly, since inflation and rate uncertainty linked to the Iran war is weighing on bank valuations broadly, and HSBC is already setting aside provisions for the Middle East conflict. The Basel 3.1 capital boost from January 2027 gives HSBC room to expand buybacks, which could limit further downside once the disappointment fades.

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Earlier:

• Goldman: Markets selling US banks on…

UBS is arguing that the oil market’s tightness has moved from production to logistics. Even with Gulf flows close to pre-conflict levels, shipping attacks and scarce tankers keep delivered crude expensive, which means a supply recovery alone may not bring prices down much. With strategic reserve releases largely done and Chinese buying back, the market has lost two of its main shock absorbers, leaving it more exposed to any new disruption around Hormuz. Higher-for-longer oil also keeps inflation pressure in play ahead of the Fed decision, adding to the case for further tightening and weighing on rate-sensitive assets. Freight-sensitive refiners and importers in Asia are the most exposed to the shift from barrel scarcity to shipping…

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Washington can still deliver crypto rules without Congress. Speaking at Ripple’s Swell conference, he said the Senate’s failure to pass the Clarity Act was disappointing, but that Treasury would use its convening power to push a regulatory framework forward through agency action with the SEC and CFTC. The catch for investors is durability: rules written by regulators can be rewritten by the next set of regulators.

What happened

Bessent described the SEC and CFTC as “great partners” in the effort. He also raised debanking, the practice of financial institutions cutting off services to crypto businesses, sometimes allegedly under regulatory pressure. He said the Clarity Act could have prevented a…

A 25bp hike is close to fully priced, so the New Zealand dollar is likely to trade on guidance, not the move itself. Language that leaves the door open to more tightening would back the hawkish paths from ASB and Westpac and lift front-end yields. “Wait and see” wording, as Kiwibank expects, would favour ANZ’s pause view and could pull back some of the pricing for a peak. A split vote would add volatility either way. Oil is the swing factor beyond today: further gains in crude would add to New Zealand’s fuel-driven inflation and strengthen the case for 3.5% or higher. AUD/NZD traders face back-to-back central bank risk, with the RBA meeting on November 2 and 3.

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Earlier:

• Preview: RBNZ set to lift OCR to 3% ahead of election as oil and…

MUFG’s call puts the risk squarely on the New Zealand dollar: with a hike almost fully priced, the currency’s G10 outperformance this month depends on the RBNZ endorsing a much steeper path than MUFG expects. Neutral or “wait and see” language could trigger a repricing of the roughly three and a half further hikes priced, pulling front-end yields lower and weighing on the kiwi, with AUD/NZD a likely beneficiary ahead of the RBA meeting on November 2 and 3. A hawkish surprise would delay that repricing, not prevent it, in MUFG’s view. Oil remains the main counterweight: further gains in crude would push up New Zealand’s fuel-driven inflation and make the market’s more aggressive path harder to unwind.

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Earlier:

• All 5 major NZ banks expect…

Oil is the key driver here: Standard Chartered’s warning ties gold’s next move directly to crude, with each leg higher in oil feeding inflation and Fed hike expectations, a pressure gold has struggled to withstand. With a December hike largely priced, any hawkish tone from the Fed on Wednesday could push gold toward the $3,886 support. A break there could trigger further liquidation from underwater ETP holders. On the other side, positioning is at its lightest since May and short covering has started, which leaves room for a sharp rebound if oil eases or the dollar softens. Physical buying around Diwali is a near-term test of whether Asian demand can step in where Western investors have pulled back.

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Standard Chartered still sees gold…

Goldman’s view puts bank stocks at the centre of the debate over higher-for-longer rates: with the Fed still on a hiking path, unrealised bond losses are keeping investors away despite improving income guidance. If yields stabilise, or the regulatory changes Goldman flags make 2027 buybacks more likely, the gap between earnings and share prices could narrow quickly. Deposits pooling in the largest lenders point to more pressure on regional and smaller bank funding costs. The credit team’s preference for secured, collateral-backed lending over unsecured bonds is a cautious signal for the heavy pipeline of AI-related bond supply.

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Earlier:

• ICYMI: S&P sees global bond issuance growth slowing to 2.7% in 2027, weakest in five years

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Goldman…

• US September durable goods orders +1.8% vs +1.7% expected
• US FHFA Monthly home prices index 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate
• US August Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected
• October US consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81.0 expected
• US New home sales for September 0.676M annualized vs 0.650M estimate
• US October Richmond Fed -2 vs -2 expected
• Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly flees Brazil for the US after election loss
• Macro takeaways from earnings: Travel, package delivery and home appliances in focus
• FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening

Markets:

• WTI crude down $1.99 to $99.78
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.98%
• AUD leads, EUR lags
• S&P 500 up 0.6%
• Nasdaq up 1.3%
• Gold up $44 to $4060

Chip…

I've posted previews for the Australian inflation data and the RBNZ deciison.

Australia:

• Australia CPI preview: banks see 1.0% core rise, above the RBA’s 0.8% forecast
• and from Greg: AUDUSD trades up and down in a 35 pip trading range over the last 3 days. Look for a break?

RBNZ:

• Preview: RBNZ set to lift OCR to 3% ahead of election as oil and weak kiwi fuel inflation
• NZIER Shadow Board majority backs 25bp RBNZ hike to 3% as oil and weaker kiwi bite

Also on the agenda are senior RBA officials speaking:

Bullock and her senior team, including Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, appear before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee’s Supplementary Budget Estimates hearing by videoconference from 11:15 am AEDT (00:15 GMT, 20:15 US Eastern on Tuesday).…

Fitch’s December call fits the view that the Fed is still on a hiking path, which supports front-end Treasury yields and the US dollar and argues against any near-term easing. The more telling signal for credit is the split it describes: investment-grade spreads near multi-year lows while CCC yields have blown out. Heavy hyperscaler issuance on top of Treasury supply raises the risk that new deals need bigger concessions even where credit quality holds up. For equities, putting a recession scenario next to AI capex keeps the spotlight on any sign that hyperscalers are scaling back spending plans.

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I spotted the headlines from Fitch overngiht and just bringing it to investingLive now. Fitch trails behind S&P and Moody's but I doubt their…

The major US stock indices closed higher, but the gains were far from evenly distributed. AI and chip-related shares continued to outperform, helping the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 rise more than 1%. The Russell 2000 also joined the rally, while the Dow industrial average finished with a modest 16-point gain.

Within the Magnificent 7, Tesla led the way with a 4.04% advance, followed by Amazon. However, Microsoft and Meta moved lower. Meta’s decline also carried a bearish technical development as the price moved below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages and finished near the session low.

Attention now turns to another important round of earnings. Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close tomorrow, while Amazon announces its…

Via Oilprice.com: