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A sharp slowdown in supply growth would ease one source of pressure on bond markets after a heavy 2026, which could help keep corporate spreads tight if demand holds up. AI borrowing stays the main swing factor for supply: with capex expected to top $1.3 trillion, hyperscaler issuance will keep testing investor appetite for technology credit. The reference to the Middle East war links the outlook to oil. Any renewed rise in crude would feed inflation, push back hopes of lower rates and strengthen the headwinds S&P describes. A growing share of Chinese debt in global benchmarks would also gradually leave index-tracking funds more exposed to Chinese rate moves.

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Earlier:

• ICYMI: Fitch sees Fed hiking to 4.25% in December, says US credit…

The US economy is sending some wildly contradictory signals, but four earnings calls this today help to make sense of what's happening beneath the surface.

Whirlpool is struggling with weak consumer demand and says Americans are putting off appliance purchases. Royal Caribbean is seeing record cruise bookings at higher prices. Hilton says business travel is booming as the AI and infrastructure investment cycle accelerates, while UPS is seeing explosive growth in high-tech shipments but a mixed picture elsewhere.

At first glance, those are four very different stories. Taken together, they paint a picture of an economy that's still growing, but increasingly divided between asset owners and everyone else, with a powerful capital spending boom…

The AUDUSD has spent the last three trading days moving up and down inside a narrow range, with a low near 0.7005 and a high at 0.70397. That is only about 35 pips from bottom to top. There has been plenty of movement within that range, but limited progress for either the buyers or the sellers.

In the video above, I take a look at the technical levels defining that battle and explain why traders should be preparing for a potential break and run.

The moving averages tell the story of indecision

Inside the range sit two key technical levels: the 100-hour moving average near 0.7023 and the 100-day moving average at 0.70317.

The price has been trading above and below those moving averages. A move above has not generated enough buying momentum to…

As London/European traders head home, the major continental indices are closing higher, with Italy and Germany leading the gains. The UK FTSE 100 is the exception, moving lower as weakness in HSBC weighs on sentiment. Meanwhile, the French bond market continues to flash caution, with yields rising despite the recovery in French equities.

Italy and Germany lead. HSBC weighs on the FTSE

Germany’s DAX gained 195.79 points, or 0.77%, to 25,606.64, while France’s CAC 40 rose 39.82 points, or 0.51%, to 7,887.15. Spain’s Ibex advanced 127.30 points, or 0.67%, to 19,160.60, and Italy’s FTSE MIB led the group with a 441.14-point gain, or 0.90%, to 49,627.94. In contrast, the UK FTSE 100 fell 80.77 points, or 0.75%, to 10,686.55.

HSBC was a drag after…

Flávio Bolsonaro is reportedly en route to the United States, according to allies cited by Folha de S.Paulo. That comes just two days after he lost the presidential runoff to Lula, and after the Supreme Court ordered him to surrender his passports amid criminal investigations. Brazilian authorities then cancelled his Brazilian passport.

Allies say he went out through Argentina. Nothing about the route or his current location has been confirmed, so treat this with some caution until there’s an official word.

If it’s accurate, this goes well beyond a losing candidate leaving the country. A presidential runner-up under investigation, travelling without a valid passport, would be landing in a country whose president openly backed him. The…

The S&P and Nasdaq 100 are trying to tilt the technical bias back to the upside after their recent declines found buyers near key support. That is a start. The next step is to reclaim resistance, hold those breaks, and build on the upside momentum.

The technical picture is improving, but the progress is different for each index. Meanwhile, Meta continues to struggle, even as Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft trade higher.

In the video above, I take a technical look at each and outline the good, the bad, and the levels that will help define the bias, risk, and targets going forward.

S&P: Buyers push above the hourly moving averages

The S&P has moved above its 200-hour moving average at 7721.11 and its 100-hour moving average at 7731.82, reaching a…

The spread, the difference between the bid (selling price) and ask (buying price)—can become a substantial expense when trades are frequent. According to the World Gold Council, average spot-market spreads were 0.02% for gold (XAUUSD) and 0.09% for silver (XAGUSD) between February 2025 and February 2026. It means your choice of instrument can multiply your spread costs: for the same trade value, spreads on silver were 4.5 times higher than on gold. 

Spreads are also essential for traders who use Contracts for Difference (CFD) as their main instrument. Elev8, a global CFD broker, explains how spreads work, how repeated transactions can turn small price differences…

The USDCAD trended higher through September (see chart below), but the buyers ran into a ceiling in early October. Three separate highs between October 5 and October 14 stalled near 1.4291–1.4298. The buyers had their chances to extend the trend. They could not get through.

That inability to break higher opened the door for sellers, and the subsequent move lower was quick and directional. The decline continued until October 23, when the price reached 1.3968.

That low stalled just above an important swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3963. The 61.8% retracement at 1.3948 added technical significance to the support zone. Sellers took back a large portion of the September rally, but they could not push through that next downside…

• Prior was 81.9 (revised to 84.2)
• Present situation 120.4 vs 111.8 prior
• Expectations 72.6 vs 65.7 prior

This is a nice jump but it comes after the worst reading since 2014 so it's still at extremely depressed levels. In any case, I struggle to see the value of this indicator as anything but a political barometer. That's valuable ahead of the midterms but it doesn't tell us much about spending. Royal Caribbean cruise lines and Hilton both reported earnings today and highlighted strong -- if not strengthening demand. That skews affluent but that's the economy right now.

Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta said the company was seeing:

"momentum across our system, which we expect to continue for the remainder of the year and into 2027."

RCL CEO Jason…

• Manufacturing shipments 0 vs -5 last month

Other details:

• Employment 3 versus 7 last month

• Wages 20 versus 17 last month

• Prices paid 7.12 versus 7.08 last month

• Prices received 5.27 versus 4.19 last month

• New orders -8 versus -6 last month

• Backlog of orders -21 versus -10 last month

• Capacity utilization -7 versus -7 last month

• Capital expenditures -12 versus -7 last month

• Services expenditure -19 versus -10 last month

• Finished goods inventories 4 versus 4 last month

• Raw materials inventory -2 versus 6 last month

• Equipment and software spending -8 versus -4 last month

This is a middling reading but it's rarely a market mover. Prices paid appear to have stabilized.

For background, the Richmond Fed’s Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity is a…

Gold is extending higher today and testing its falling 100-hour moving average near $4043. That level is the short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. A move above—and the ability to stay above—would give buyers more confidence after last week’s sharp decline. Stay below, and sellers retain the technical advantage.

Sellers took control below the hourly moving averages

The bearish move gathered momentum after gold broke below its 100- and 200-hour moving averages near $4153 on October 19. Subsequent attempts to recover found sellers leaning against those moving averages. The resistance held, giving traders a defined level to limit risk and keeping the sellers in control.

On October 22, the price accelerated lower, moving away from the…

• Prior month 0.3%

Details of the report

US August FHFA house prices rise 0.3% as expected; annual growth slows to 2.4%

• House prices MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%.

• House prices YoY: +2.4% vs +2.6% expected. Prior revised to +2.6% from +2.5%.

• House Price Index: 444.6 vs 443.5 expected. Prior revised to 443.5 from 443.2.

US home prices increased 0.3% in August, matching expectations, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. However, the downward revision to July and softer-than-expected annual increase take some of the strength out of the headline.

Prices were 2.4% above August 2025, below the 2.6% expected and July’s revised 2.6% pace. Prices are still rising nationally, but annual appreciation is…