Market News

• Prior month 0.3%

Details of the report

US August FHFA house prices rise 0.3% as expected; annual growth slows to 2.4%

• House prices MoM: +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior revised to +0.2% from +0.3%.

• House prices YoY: +2.4% vs +2.6% expected. Prior revised to +2.6% from +2.5%.

• House Price Index: 444.6 vs 443.5 expected. Prior revised to 443.5 from 443.2.

US home prices increased 0.3% in August, matching expectations, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. However, the downward revision to July and softer-than-expected annual increase take some of the strength out of the headline.

Prices were 2.4% above August 2025, below the 2.6% expected and July’s revised 2.6% pace. Prices are still rising nationally, but annual appreciation is…

• Prior was +2.5% y/y
• 20-city house price index +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected

Mortgage rates at 7.5% aren't doing any favors for the housing market.

For background, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the best-known measure of US house prices. They’re published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9 am ET and carry a roughly two-month lag, so a release in late October covers August.

The indexes use a repeat-sales method, tracking price changes on the same single-family homes as they sell over time. Because they compare a property with itself, they avoid the distortions that come from changes in the mix of homes being sold, a weakness of simple median price measures. Each monthly reading is a three-month moving average, which smooths the…

The S&P 500 sold off sharply last week as growth concerns, widening credit spreads and the risk of renewed US-Iran strikes weighed on risk sentiment. Although no new US attack has occurred so far, the risk of further escalation remains elevated as we approach the US midterm elections.

The fundamentals continue to point towards further downside, with very few bullish drivers at the moment. Widening credit spreads, persistent inflation pressures, elevated energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty and a hawkish Federal Reserve are likely to limit any rebound.

The Middle East crisis remains one of the key drivers. A de-escalation in the Saudi-Houthi conflict or a surprise breakthrough in…

Bitcoin has been moving lower since the September and October highs formed a ceiling near $87,374. The repeated failures near that level gave sellers a clearly defined area to lean against. Buyers had their opportunities to extend the upside, but they could not sustain a break. The price has since worked its way lower.

However, the sellers have also run into a limit.

The $80,000 area continues to attract buying interest, slowing the decline and leaving the digital currency trading in a narrow range above and below that key level. Sellers have the short-term technical advantage, but they still need to prove they can break the floor and stay below it.

In the video above, I take a closer look at the technical levels defining the battle, what…

• Prior month 0.684M annualized

Details: 

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with markets pricing a 90% probability of a hold. With limited changes expected to the policy statement, the focus will be on Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference.

Despite higher September inflation data strengthening the case for further tightening, key Fed members have signalled little urgency to deliver a back-to-back rate hike in October. A hawkish hold remains the base case as the debate centres around the timing and extent of further tightening rather than direction.

Warsh is expected to reiterate that monetary policy is not sufficiently restrictive and that additional tightening is warranted. He's also seen reaffirming the…

Headlines:

• FOMC Preview: A hawkish hold as markets watch for signals about timing and extent of further tightening
• Why the Federal Reserve matters more to crypto market than many investors realise
• Oil consolidates around recent highs as fears of imminent US strikes ease. What's next?
• ECB rate outlook grows more complicated as bank lending conditions tighten
• Bitcoin at risk of a big correction after breaking below the major $80K support. What to watch next?
• European stock market open: Stocks retreat as caution returns, UK leads losses
• Gold gets stuck in a consolidation around the $4,000 level as traders await the FOMC decision, US-Iran developments
• France consumer confidence plunges to lowest since 2013 as fiscal worries deepen
• China tech stocks…

The U.S. dollar is mostly higher heading into the North American session, but the gains are not across the board. The greenback is advancing against the EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF and CAD, while losing ground against the AUD and NZD. EURUSD and GBPUSD are trading nearer their session lows, keeping the immediate focus on whether sellers can extend those declines.

Treasury yields are modestly lower, with the 10-year yield just below 5%. That combination—lower yields alongside a mostly firmer dollar—shows that the morning is not a straightforward interest-rate story. Traders also have a major policy event ahead: the Fed’s two-day meeting begins today and concludes Wednesday. The Fed is not expected to act with 1-week until the mid-term elections. …

• Prior was 0.0%
• Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.6% expected
• Prior ex-transport +0.3%
• Ex-defense +2.2% vs +0.1% prior
• Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.7% expected
• Prior +1.6%

Durable goods orders have been chopping sideways for much of the past year and today's report is more of the same. it's a nice climb but it comes after months of stagnation.

The core number is better but this data point is rarely a market mover, even ahead of a tricky Fed decision.

On the washing machine front, Whirlpool reported earnings yesterday and they were dire, with shares falling 5% premarket to the lowest since the depths of the financial crisis. They're down 90% from the 2021 peak. The company has been in a brutal tailspin because of the deep recession…

It’s starting to feel like Apple’s tradition: every big launch comes with a problem. The iPhone 4 had signal issues when held a certain way, the iPhone 6 Plus was bending in people’s pockets, and the iPhone 15 Pro was getting unusually hot until an iOS update helped fix it.

Now it’s the iPhone Duo’s turn. Just hours after sales kicked off, reports of screens cracking along the fold started coming in, though Apple says only a small number of devices are affected and has advised customers to contact AppleCare for a replacement.

Apple shares slipped around 1% on the news, not a huge move, but could this turn into a bigger problem?

In similar cases, Apple…

Cryptocurrencies have different use cases and fundamentals, but the macroeconomic conditions are an important underlying driver. The Federal Reserve's policy has an enormous influence on macroeconomic conditions through liquidity, borrowing costs and risk appetite, making it a key factor for the crypto market. Because cryptocurrencies are risk assets, they tend to struggle when monetary policy tightens and benefit when policy becomes more accommodative.

By raising interest rates, the Fed increases borrowing costs for households and businesses, restraining consumption and investment. This can slow economic growth and tighten financial conditions. Conversely, rate cuts reduce borrowing costs and can support economic activity by encouraging…

The latest campaign builds on IC’s partnership with the Mexican goalkeeper, drawing parallels between preparation, judgement and decision-making in sport and financial markets.

IC, a global provider of online trading services, has launched a new campaign featuring Mexican football goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, building on its partnership with the player and continued brand activity across Latin America.

The campaign draws on Ochoa’s experience in international football, where years of preparation can come down to a single decision. It highlights the importance of reading changing conditions, responding with precision and remaining focused under pressure.

These are principles IC also recognises in financial markets. While football…