Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.77%, Shanghai Composite down 0.22% Hang Seng down 1.39% ASX down 1.38%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,540.37 (-0.49%) Silver at $75.603 (-2.50%), Brent Oil at $111.31 (1.89%), WTI Oil at $103.29 (2.25%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.628, UK 10-year yield at 5.1830, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1535

• (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m  3.0%  to 3.5%   expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined Monday after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled investors. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran to “get moving, FAST,” fueling concerns about a deeper conflict and possible disruptions to global oil supplies.

In a Truth Social post,…

US Stocks Hit Hard into the Weekend – Nasdaq down 1.55%

Global equity markets finished sharply lower into Friday’s close as investors reacted to mounting inflation concerns and another aggressive move higher in global bond yields. Risk sentiment deteriorated throughout the session, with all three major US indices ending firmly in the red as rising yields continued to weigh heavily on growth and technology stocks.

The Dow Jones fell 1.07% to close at 49,526, while the S&P 500 lost 1.24% to finish at 7,408. The Nasdaq underperformed once again, sliding 1.54% to 26,225 as higher rate expectations pressured the tech sector.

US Treasury yields surged higher across the curve, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may need to…

This just means that the fiscal worries will continue to mount, adding to the already damaging reputation for the yen currency amid the Takaichi trade from before.

The report says that the Japanese government is likely to issue fresh debt as part of its funding for a planned extra budget. This budget is largely to help to cushion against the economic blow from the fallout amid the Middle East conflict.

The mounting speculation of this extra budget is already hitting at markets, with 10-year Japanese bond yields hitting 2.80% earlier today with 30-year yields rising to briefly clip a record 4.20% level.

The extra budget is said to focus on subsidies such as gasoline and utility bills, to help with households. That considering Japan has been…

• Iranian and Omani technical teams met last week in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz
• Process of talks through Pakistani mediation is ongoing
• Both Iran and the US have sent their comments on the recent Iranian proposal
• Tehran's demands in negotiations with the US include releasing Iranian frozen funds and lifting sanctions

Iran’s foreign ministry says that indirect diplomatic channels with the US remain active despite recent escalations. Iranian and Omani technical teams held meetings in Oman last week to negotiate a dedicated mechanism aimed at securing safe transit through the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside these maritime security talks, Tehran clarified that the broader process of…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Inflation and consumer‑spending data plus Fed commentary, which pushed front‑end and intermediate Treasury yields higher (raising rate expectations) and supported a firmer dollar; equities were mixed with retail and consumer names reacting to spending prints while tech/AI sectors tracked earnings flow, and oil moved on continuing Middle East/supply headlines that benefited energy stocks and pushed crude prices higher.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on whether the “trade‑thaw” story from the Trump‑Xi summit continues to support equities and a firmer yuan, on how China’s April industrial production, retail…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Weaker-than-expected China April activity data and a fresh surge in geopolitical risk, producing a clear split between pressure on Chinese and Hong Kong equities and strength in oil. The headline losers were growth-sensitive equities and risk assets, while the headline beneficiaries were crude futures and related energy exposures.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Geopolitical news (notably U.S.–Iran tensions) and rising oil prices are the immediate risk drivers this morning, while a packed economic calendar features flash PMIs across Europe and the U.S., Germany’s Ifo and GfK consumer gauges, UK activity and inflation signals,…

The risk mood is looking rather dour as we look to get into European trading later. The US-Iran conflict continues to drag on, with no real progress over the weekend. And that is making for a very dicey start to the new week today.

Iran is now charging a toll for ships looking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and even then it will only be limited to exceptions to some of its allies. To those aligning themselves with the US, there will be no such passage. And while that is going on, the US naval blockade also continues to stay in place.

All in all, it doesn't mean much. The strait remains in de facto closure with the only vessels passing through being small regional cargo ships, Iranian coastal ships, and a few Chinese vessels that are…

• China April data misses badly, Iran war and weak demand weigh. Retail sales growth plunge.
• China April Retail Sales +0.2% y/y (exp 2%) & Industrial Prduction +4.1% y/y (exp 5.9%)
• Iran war economic toll deepens as global oil stocks near exhaustion
• Japan's 10-year bond yield hits 1996 high as fresh debt plans emerge. Extra budget coming
• Chinese House Price Index continues to slump: April -3.5% y/y (prior -3.4%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8435 (vs. estimate at 6.8086)
• Singapore April 2026 non-oil exports +24.5% y/y vs prior 15.30%
• Zcash surges 1,140% in a year as bitcoin pioneers back privacy token
• South Korea exchange halt as KOSPI futures slammed limit lower
• US net oil exporter status shields dollar from energy shock hitting…

China April 2026 economic activity data.

Retail Sales 0.2% y/y

• expected 2.0%, prior 1.7%

Industrial Production 4.1% y/y

• expected 5.9^ prior 5.7%

Fixed Asset Investment -1.6% y/y ytd

• expected 1.7%, prior Prev. 1.7%

Unemployment Rate 5.2%

• prior 5.4%

I'll have more to come on this separately, details etc.

China's April retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest since 2022, while industrial output grew only 4.1%, badly missing forecasts, as the Iran war and sluggish domestic demand weighed.

Summary:

• China's National Bureau of Statistics reported April industrial output growth of 4.1% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in March and well below the 5.9% forecast, while retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest reading since December 2022, against a forecast of 2% growth, according to Reuters.
• Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in the first four months of 2026, reversing a 1.7% rise in the January-March period, with domestic car sales falling 21.6% year-on-year for a seventh consecutive monthly decline.
• The NBS described the international environment…