Market News

China April 2026 economic activity data.

Retail Sales 0.2% y/y

• expected 2.0%, prior 1.7%

Industrial Production 4.1% y/y

• expected 5.9^ prior 5.7%

Fixed Asset Investment -1.6% y/y ytd

• expected 1.7%, prior Prev. 1.7%

Unemployment Rate 5.2%

• prior 5.4%

I'll have more to come on this separately, details etc.

China's April retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest since 2022, while industrial output grew only 4.1%, badly missing forecasts, as the Iran war and sluggish domestic demand weighed.

Summary:

• China's National Bureau of Statistics reported April industrial output growth of 4.1% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in March and well below the 5.9% forecast, while retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest reading since December 2022, against a forecast of 2% growth, according to Reuters.
• Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.6% in the first four months of 2026, reversing a 1.7% rise in the January-March period, with domestic car sales falling 21.6% year-on-year for a seventh consecutive monthly decline.
• The NBS described the international environment…

Japan's 10-year bond yield hit its highest since 1996 at 4.2% after a government source confirmed fresh debt issuance is planned to fund a supplementary budget to offset Iran war energy costs.

Summary:

• A Japanese government source told Reuters that fresh debt issuance will likely form part of the funding for a planned supplementary budget aimed at cushioning the economic impact of the Iran war, with Prime Minister Takaichi set to make a formal announcement.
• The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond rose 10 basis points to 2.8% on Monday, its highest level since October 1996, reflecting market concern over the country's already strained public finances.
• The supplementary budget is intended to ease household energy costs as fuel…

For the m/m -0.1%

• prior -0.2%

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 24.5% year-on-year in April, dramatically beating the median forecast of 10.9% growth, driven by strong electronics shipments including integrated circuits and PCs on robust AI-related demand, though the Singapore dollar was little changed on the data release.

UK asking prices rose 1.2% in May, above seasonal norms, while a separate survey showed British employer confidence near record lows with pay awards set to lag inflation.

Summary:

• Rightmove reported UK asking prices rose 1.2% month-on-month in May, above the typical 1.0% seasonal increase, while the average two-year fixed mortgage rate eased to 5.18% from 5.42% a month earlier, according to Reuters reporting on the Rightmove data. Annual prices remained 0.3% lower, homes for sale held at an 11-year high, and sales agreed were 4% below year-ago levels.
• The CIPD survey of 2,049 UK employers, conducted between March 23 and April 23, found cost management was the top business priority ahead of productivity and market share growth, with…

New Zealand's services sector contracted for a second straight month in April, with the PSI reading at 48.9, as businesses cited fuel prices and the Strait of Hormuz conflict as key headwinds.

Summary:

• The BNZ-BusinessNZ PSI came in at 48.9 in April, up from 46.2 in March but still below the 50.0 expansion threshold, with BusinessNZ CEO Katherine Rich noting that more than two-thirds of respondents reported negative conditions and many citing fuel prices linked to the Strait of Hormuz conflict, according to the release.
• The New Orders sub-index was the sole component in expansion at 51.2, while all four other sub-indexes contracted, with Supplier Deliveries the weakest at 46.6.
• Micro-businesses with 1 to 10 employees recorded a sub-index of…

Trump is holding off for a revised offer from Tehran, and still believes Iran is willing to reach an agreement, according to Axios.

A mixed bag of data expected from China with improving retail and IP while property investment not. House price data should show a continued slump.

• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result.
• The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

A drone struck an electrical generator at the UAE's Barakah nuclear plant on Sunday as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks stalled, with Trump warning Tehran time was running out.

Summary:

• A drone penetrated UAE defences and struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, with radiological safety levels unaffected and no injuries reported, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office.
• The UAE defence ministry said two other drones were intercepted and that the attack originated from the "western border," while a diplomatic adviser to the UAE president described the strike as a dangerous escalation, per official statements.
• The IAEA confirmed emergency diesel generators were powering one unit at Barakah and…

Axios reports that Trump is expected to hold a meeting with top officials from his national security team in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, May 19, 2026.

Keep that in mind when trading today and tomorrow.

• US major indices close lower. Declines today erase the week's gains.
• Powell exits after one of the wildest Fed eras in history
• Gold tumbles lower today on the back of higher yields and the higher USD
• Israel says it carried out targeted strike in Gaza against Hamas head.
• Baker Hughes total rig count rises by +3 to 551
• European shares close lower on the day and lower on the week
• Silver is sharply lower on higher USD/higher yields. Technically breaks the 100 day MA.
• Microsoft shares are higher as Pershings Ackman bets on the company
• US industrial production for April 0.7% versus 0.3% estimate
• Canada Manufacturing Sales for March 3.0% vs 3.5% estimate
• NY Fed manufacturing index for May 19.6 vs 7.5 estimate
• Canada housing starts for April 279.3K vs…