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There is a bit of a welcome relief in global bonds to start the new week, particularly in Europe after Moody's affirmed France's Aa3 credit rating. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have also settled down a fair bit after an extremely volatile period earlier this month. But in looking at where things are right now, there is still plenty of tension lurking beneath the surface.

For one, 10-year Treasury yields are still sitting just below the 5% mark for the time being. And over in Europe, the France-Germany 10-year yield spread remains at levels that would have surely been alarming just a few months ago.

So while the selling pressure in the bond market has eased for now, the underlying concerns haven't really changed all that much. And as much as…

• Asia firms into Tokyo lunch: Japan and Korea stocks rise, AUD and NZD gain after Nasdaq lead
• Ethereum Foundation “dump” is a $6.4m treasury sale, not a crisis
• South Korea Q3 GDP grows 1.0%, beating forecasts as AI chip boom lifts exports
• China September industrial profits jump 14.4% y/y, rebounding from 4.2% in August
• Japan services PPI picks up to 3.7% as August revised lower, backing BoJ hike path
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7171 (vs. estimate at 6.6731)
• Japan September services PPI holds at 3.7% y/y, in line with forecast, before BoJ
• Greer warns $3.4 billion EU loan to Airbus may breach US-EU aircraft trade truce Alt headlines:
• Australia CPI preview: banks see 1.0% core rise, above the RBA’s 0.8% forecast
• RBA is talking more but…

A sale of this size has no meaningful effect on ETH supply or price, coming in at well under 0.1% of daily trading volume. The more relevant support for ETH is around $2,300, where it has been trading, and the broader flow picture: buying from Bitmine is fading, and spot ETF flows matter more than one-off Foundation conversions. A series of larger Foundation sales into weakness would be the scenario that turns this into a genuine supply story.

--- Crypto Twitter called it a dump, but the Ethereum Foundation selling $6.4 million of ETH to cover its running costs is a budget line, not a bear signal.

Summary:

• The Ethereum Foundation sold around 2,785 ETH, worth about $6.4 million, for the USDS stablecoin on CoW Swap
• Social media posts framed the…

Summary:

• Japanese and South Korean stocks rose, following a firmer Wall Street session led by the Nasdaq
• South Korea’s Q3 GDP grew 1.0% q/q, well above forecasts, and the KOSPI’s strong rally triggered a sidecar halt on program trading
• Japan’s services PPI rose 3.7% y/y in September, up from a downwardly revised 3.5%, ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision
• China’s industrial profits rebounded 14.4% y/y in September from 4.2% in August
• The Australian and New Zealand dollars firmed ahead of Australian CPI data on Wednesday
• Gold was stable and oil edged slightly lower

Wall Street lead Asian markets took a positive lead from Wall Street, where US stocks had a firmer session on Monday with the Nasdaq leading the gains. Tech sentiment has been supported by…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBOC injects 1 trillion yuan through overnight reverse repos
• PBOC injects 412 billion yuan through 7 day reverse repos @1.4%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The downward revision to August makes the September print more hawkish than the headline suggests: services prices are accelerating, not just holding. That adds weight to the case for the BoJ’s Outlook Report to effectively declare underlying inflation has reached 2%, and supports December hike pricing, lending the yen modest support into Friday. Short-end JGB yields could edge higher as markets price a firmer BoJ tone. Oil-driven cost pressure from the Iran conflict remains a background inflation risk, but this data shows domestic, labour-driven pressure building too. The vote split and Ueda’s press conference remain the bigger yen catalysts.

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Earlier:

• Japan September services PPI holds at 3.7% y/y, in line with forecast, before BoJ

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The rebound offers a modest positive surprise for Chinese assets at a time when sentiment is fragile, with onshore equities in a bear market and Morgan Stanley warning of further downside in offshore shares. Industrial and materials stocks are the most direct beneficiaries, and the data may slightly ease concerns about a sharp earnings slowdown. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar could find mild support from any read-through to Chinese industrial demand. That said, the gently slowing year-to-date trend and the lack of a sector breakdown limit how far markets are likely to run with the headline.

• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7171 (vs. estimate at 6.6731)

China’s factory profits shook off August’s slump in…

The strength of the beat, and the KOSPI sidecar on a sharp rally, underline how heavily Korean assets now trade on the AI chip cycle. That cuts both ways: it supports exporters and chip names while global AI demand holds up, but leaves the market exposed to any wobble in the global AI trade. The data reinforce the Bank of Korea’s hawkish bias after its July and September hikes, which should support the won and keep pressure on short-end bond yields. Weak consumption is the main argument against further tightening, so household-sensitive sectors are likely to keep lagging.

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South Korea is riding the AI chip boom hard enough to set off market circuit-breakers, but its households are sitting this one out.

Summary:

• South Korea’s Q3 GDP grew…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

Zandi’s view runs against market pricing for at least one more hike this year, so it’s more a marker for the doves than a market mover. It does sharpen focus on the tension in this week’s Fed decision. Oil is the pivot: crude climbing back toward wartime peaks on Iran tensions lifts inflation and keeps the Fed on its hiking path, while also squeezing real incomes in a way that strengthens Zandi’s growth warning. With 10-year yields near 5% and credit spreads wider, any hawkish surprise from the Fed risks further pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and leveraged borrowers. A skip with hawkish guidance, as Goldman Sachs expects, would keep December live.

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Earlier:

• Major central banks take centre stage this week but will there…

For rates traders, the note argues against reading too much into tone shifts between the press conference and market-focused speeches, and in favour of the minutes and officials’ data interpretations as the cleaner signal. The Governor describing the labour market as a little tight, plus staff’s downbeat view of supply capacity, leans hawkish and supports pricing for further tightening rather than a pause. The coming fortnight is dense with event risk for the Australian dollar and front-end yields: the quarterly CPI lands alongside Senate Estimates testimony, followed by the November decision, the Statement on Monetary Policy and further speeches. With supply shocks driving inflation, including energy, a firm CPI would reinforce the…

An in-line print is unlikely to move the yen much on its own, but it removes one possible dovish surprise before Friday’s decision and keeps the backdrop supportive of December hike pricing. Steady services inflation strengthens the case for the Outlook Report to effectively declare underlying inflation has reached 2%, which would support the yen and short-end JGB yields. The bigger moves are still likely to come from the BoJ’s vote split, Ueda’s press conference and Wednesday’s Fed decision. Oil-driven cost pressure tied to the Iran conflict keeps the wider inflation backdrop firm.

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Earlier:

• BoJ preview: MUFG sees hold but a 2% inflation call, with two dissenters the key yen risk
• Japan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of…