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This is a warning shot rather than an escalation, so the immediate market impact is likely confined to aerospace names, with Airbus and Boeing shares the most exposed to any shift in trade rhetoric. The bigger risk is that aircraft financing becomes a fresh front in US-EU trade tensions at a time when the administration is already fighting on several fronts, including Canada. Any move toward formal measures, such as reviving tariffs linked to the old subsidy dispute, would weigh on European aerospace and the wider supply chain. A quick EU response with loan details would likely defuse the issue.

--- The Boeing-Airbus feud is back on Washington’s radar, with Greer warning that Europe’s record loan to Airbus could unpick a hard-won aircraft…

An in-line print is unlikely to move the yen much on its own, but it removes one possible dovish surprise before Friday’s decision and keeps the backdrop supportive of December hike pricing. Steady services inflation strengthens the case for the Outlook Report to effectively declare underlying inflation has reached 2%, which would support the yen and short-end JGB yields. The bigger moves are still likely to come from the BoJ’s vote split, Ueda’s press conference and Wednesday’s Fed decision. Oil-driven cost pressure tied to the Iran conflict keeps the wider inflation backdrop firm.

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Earlier:

• BoJ preview: MUFG sees hold but a 2% inflation call, with two dissenters the key yen risk
• Japan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of…

The call sets a clear valuation marker: offshore Chinese shares near eight times forward earnings would be historically cheap territory, and that could become a reference point for bottom-fishing. Until then, Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks look more exposed than mainland shares, which Morgan Stanley sees as cushioned by government support. The link to the global AI sell-off means Chinese equities are trading partly as a proxy for global risk appetite. Further weakness in US tech could spill over even without fresh domestic news. Any sign of policy support or clarity on the trust tax issue would be the obvious upside risk to the bearish view.

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Yesterday:

• Goldman Sachs cuts Kospi target 25% to 9,000, still sees over 60% upside

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Morgan…

A hold with an effective 2% declaration and a firm Ueda press conference would support the yen and pull December hike pricing forward, pushing short-end JGB yields higher. The asymmetric risk is the vote: if the two reflationist members switch from opposing a hike to calling for a cut, the dovish signal could outweigh the hawkish language and trigger yen selling. USD/JPY is also exposed to this week’s Fed meeting. A surprise US hike that sent the pair sharply higher is the kind of emergency that, per the Nikkei report, could put a back-to-back BoJ move on the table. Oil-driven inflation pressure from the Iran conflict adds to the case for a firmer BoJ tone.

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Earlier:

• BOJ preview: Daiwa sees hold, but 2% inflation call could open door to…

Morgan Stanley's Wilson’s framework gives traders a roadmap: a final flush toward 7,100 to 7,200, slightly below the 200-day moving average, would be consistent with his view rather than a breakdown of it. The quality factor breaking out suggests leadership stays defensive until his catalysts clear, while beaten-down early-cycle groups such as semiconductors carry the most rebound potential once they do. The liquidity call is the key one to watch: any signal from the Fed on slowing balance sheet growth further, or on tightening financial conditions, would matter more for his timeline than AI headlines. Oil-driven inflation that keeps the Fed on its hiking path is the main threat to a quick resolution.

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Earlier:

• Citadel Securities warns AI…

The analysis adds a structural layer to an inflation backdrop already strained by energy, which argues against easing and supports the case for central banks on tightening paths, including the Fed and the Bank of Japan, to keep a hawkish bias into 2027. Japan’s projected 0.3 point boost is notable ahead of this week’s BoJ meeting, where the key question is whether underlying inflation has reached 2%. For bonds, a temporary but well-timed price shock could keep front-end yields supported. For equities, the finding that AI lifts prices more than growth outside Asian supply hubs feeds into investor scrutiny of returns on AI spending. Oil remains the bigger swing factor, but AI now adds to the pressure from the goods side.

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Speaking of…

Closing changes for the main US equity indexes:

• S&P 500 +0.7%
• Nasdaq +0.8%
• Russell 2000 +0.5%
• DJIA +0.3%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.4%
• Brazil Bovespa -13.5%

The rout in markets reversed to some extent on Monday as we count down to major earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon this week, along with the FOMC decision. One catalyst was the filing from the Anthropic IPO, with the company expected to try to raise $100 billion at a +$1.5 trillion valuation with a target date of November 16.

The Shadow Board result adds to the case for a hike at the October review, although several members still favour a pause, so a hold would not be a shock. A hike paired with a clear signal of a prolonged pause could limit any boost to the New Zealand dollar, while a hold with hawkish guidance would keep year-end hike pricing alive. Oil is the swing factor: members tied much of the inflation risk to fuel prices and the Iran conflict, so further gains in crude would strengthen the case for more tightening. The next inflation release is the near-term catalyst for NZ rate pricing.

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Earlier:

• Preview: RBNZ set to lift OCR to 3% ahead of election as oil and weak kiwi fuel inflation

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Oil and a sliding kiwi have tipped most of NZIER’s Shadow…

I'll get a preview posted for the Japanese data soon (ADDED, here it is: Japan services PPI preview: 3.7% pace in focus ahead of Friday’s BoJ decision ). In brief, while the services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday.

The services PPI is rarely a big mover for the yen on its own, but a reading at or above 3.7% would reinforce December hike pricing and lend modest support to the yen and short-dated JGB yields into Friday. A downside surprise would carry more weight than usual, coming after the sharp September slowdown in goods producer prices, and could lean against the yen by encouraging talk of a slower BoJ path. With an October hike effectively priced out, the yen’s bigger reaction is more likely to come from the tone of the BoJ’s outlook report and Ueda’s press conference than from this data.

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Earlier:

• BOJ preview: Daiwa sees hold, but 2% inflation call could open door to December hike
• BOJ to hold at 1.25%, but Ueda signals further hikes toward neutral
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/nikkei-slips-bounces-as-iran-oil-fears-weigh-ing-sees-boj-holding-at-1-25-two-hikes-in-2027" target="_blank"…

The theft is too small to move SOL on its own, but it lands on a fragile tape. SOL has fallen about 14% in October, the weakest of the four largest cryptocurrencies, as spot Solana ETF outflows and a broad pullback from crypto risk weigh on sentiment. The more lasting effect may be on the Telegram trading bot segment, where users give up some control of signing in exchange for speed. If confidence in that model weakens, memecoin and short-term trading activity could ease, and much of that activity runs on Solana.

-- A Telegram bot lost nearly $1 million of its users’ SOL in 94 seconds. It says the keys were safe, but the blockchain’s evidence still needs explaining.

Summary:

• Bloom, a Telegram trading bot, says about 9,408 SOL (around…

• At the close: US stock markets climb Monday as Anthropic files for IPO
• US and Canada working on deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports
• The once Magnificent 7 are not so magnificent, but they still are large cap technology movers
• Saudi Arabia offers cash to Houthis to stop attacks - report
• The cost of intelligence is collapsing
• US Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes at a high yield of 4.708%
• Saudi, Pakistani, Iranian and Turkish security chiefs sit down in Tehran, agree to continue talks
• US October Dallas Fed manufacturing index 13.4 vs 9.8 prior
• Anthropic files for IPO on Nasdaq, will use the symbol 'ANT'
• Morning Kickstart: Dollar higher as Fed, earnings and data flood loom
• investingLive European session wrap: Stocks rebound…