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The broader risk mood is worsening on the session as we see oil prices ramp higher while stocks and precious metals sink lower. At the same time, we're seeing bond yields extend higher with Treasury yields jumping across the curve. 30-year yields broke the pivotal 5% threshold earlier this week and we're seeing everything run up now in the final trading day.

Of note, 10-year yields in the US are up by over 8 bps to 4.54% - its highest since May last year. Meanwhile, 2-year yields are also shooting higher in moving back above the 4% threshold. That is a big momentum shift after having struggled to clear the 4% mark in March before falling to as low as 3.70% in April. And now, the tide is changing and we're seeing a breakout as the bond…

The pipeline is already under construction but the latest decision by the UAE is to accelerate said project in order to become operational in 2027. The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi met with the executive committee of the ADNOC board of directors and directed to accelerate delivery of the project.

For some context, the UAE's total production capacity is roughly 4.5 million bpd. But with the Strait of Hormuz now in de facto closure, they can only use the Fujairah pipeline to get oil exports out. However, that is only limited to around 1.9 million bpd at best even if running at maximum capacity.

So, they are still facing troubles currently in that there is nearly 2.6 million bpd unable to be exported. And not only that, it is worth reminding that…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.36%, Shanghai Composite up 0.12% Hang Seng down 0.97% ASX down 0.05%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,618.82 (-1.43%) Silver at $81.695 (-4.26%), Brent Oil at $107.02 (1.23%), WTI Oil at $102.51 (1.35%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.517, UK 10-year yield at 5.0000, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0484

• (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m  0.7%  to 0.7%   expected

South Korea’s benchmark Kospi erased earlier gains and fell 1.35% on Friday after briefly touching a record high above 8,000, as broader Asia-Pacific markets traded lower amid investor caution over ongoing U.S.-China talks. Traders closely monitored the second day of high-level discussions…

And that ends the sidetracking period for markets, with the focus and attention now switching back to the Middle East.

Trump's visit to China to meet with Xi was mainly for show, with both sides wanting to reaffirm to the world that the two major powers are keeping more stable relations in a time of economic turbulence. That especially after the tariffs war last year that strained ties between the two countries.

There will be agreements on trade and a couple of other things to take away from the show in Beijing this week. However, don't expect that to change much in terms of the big picture between the US and China.

Soybean purchases, Boeing airplane orders, tech investments, and AI chip orders. There will be some gestures of goodwill to tie…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Shift from tech-led risk appetite to renewed inflation concern, led by Japan’s hotter-than-expected 4.9% wholesale inflation print and amplified by higher oil prices and stronger U.S. yields. That combination most directly moved USD/JPY, Asian equity indexes, oil, gold, and the broader U.S. dollar complex, with risk assets generally softer and inflation-sensitive instruments showing the largest reaction.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

European inflation/rates pressure and the U.S. growth/labor backdrop, with oil-led inflation still a major cross-asset driver. In Europe, Reuters says euro-zone inflation has moved further above…

Market Rally on Trade Optimism – S&P up 0.8%

US equity markets pushed to fresh record highs overnight as investors continued to favour risk assets amid growing optimism surrounding President Trump’s trip to China. Technology stocks once again led the move higher, helping lift the Nasdaq 0.88% to a fresh record close of 26,635, while the S&P 500 gained 0.77% to finish at 7,501. The Dow Jones also rallied strongly, rising 0.75% to close above the 50,000 mark at 50,063.

US Treasury yields and the US dollar both moved higher through the session as markets continued to position for the possibility of firmer US inflation data later this week and a Federal Reserve that remains patient on rate cuts. The US 2-year Treasury yield climbed 3.9…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price report, which sharpened inflation concerns and pushed rate-sensitive markets toward a more defensive stance. That combination supported the dollar and Treasury yields, while crude oil and gold weakened; equities were more mixed, with semiconductors and large-cap tech cushioning the S&P 500 and Nasdaq from the macro headwind.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should track the policy‑ and geopolitical fallout from the Trump–Xi summit, the stability of the US–Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz logistics, and fresh Asian‑region inflation and trade data that will shape FX and rate…

After the record highs in Wall Street yesterday, the mood music is switching around as we get into the new day. With markets turning their attention to Trump's visit to China, the war in the Middle East continues to rage on. While there might have been some hopeful optimism about maybe expecting Trump to push Beijing to take action on Iran, that doesn't seem to be coming as we draw closer to the weekend.

And that is arguably why we're starting to see markets get caught by another risk-off wave as we approach the final stretch of the week.

US-Iran talks remain stalled and all China are saying is that "yes, there is no point in continuing the conflict" and that "the Strait of Hormuz must remain open for the good of everyone".

All this while…

• China foreign ministry says we should reopen Hormuz ASAP
• South Korean stocks reverse record highs as Trump patience on Iran wears thin
• Trump touts China trade wins on Fox as oil rises and markets turn cautious (equities down)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8415 (vs. estimate at 6.7976)
• Japan finance minister heads to G7 as energy costs and bond yields dominate
• Japan wholesale prices surge 4.9% as Iran war drives import cost spike
• USTR Greer flags China ag deal progress but holds firm on tariff uncertainty
• More from Fed's Barr - hasn't decided on what to do at June FOMC meeting
• Japan April wholesale prices surge, PPI +4.9% y/y (expected +3%, prior +2.6%)
• Ex-Google CEO Schmidt says cash, not energy, is the real limit on AI growth
• <a…

China foreign ministry, on Iran situation:

• A comprehensive and lasting ceasefire should be reached as soon as possible
• We should reopen the channel as soon as possible
• Finding a solution earlier is beneficial to both the United States and Iran, as well as regional countries

Something specific would be nice, yeah?