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The Canadian dollar had some deal optimism built in after the weekend remarks from Washington, so Carney’s comments and the Semafor report remove part of that support and leave USD/CAD sensitive to further trade headlines. A deal that eases retaliatory tariffs would still be a positive for Canadian exporters and cross-border supply chains, so any concrete breakthrough could still bring a sharp move. For oil, Canada is a major supplier of crude to the US, which keeps energy flows in focus whenever tariff talks shift. With the two governments framing progress so differently, traders are likely to want specifics before pricing a deal again.

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Earlier:

• US and Canada working on deal to ease tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports

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The note gives a framework for the recent equity sell-off: a market priced for AI success has little cushion if returns slip, approvals drag or financing costs keep climbing. Heavy AI capex spenders with thin or negative free cash flow look most exposed, while diversified platforms with established cash flows are better placed. Oil is the wider macro threat, with Brent above $117 and reports of possible renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms keeping energy risk alive. That risk works against any easing from a Fed already facing sticky inflation. Credit is the channel to watch: widening spreads could raise financing costs for leveraged data centre projects even if Treasury yields fall.

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Earlier:

• The once Magnificent 7 are not so…

False reports of 'a Canada-USA trade deal' aren't far off from the number of reports about 'peace in Hormuz' so I would take this one with a grain of salt. There has been some noise over the weekend about new trade negotiations led by Lutnick.

This report from Reuters cites two Canadian and four American sources that say the sides are talking about reduced tariffs on autos and steel. They're underway with broad discontent in US border states about tariffs and Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers now running against tariffs.

The report says a deal is possible before the November 3 midterms but that the US wants Canada to make further concessions

"If it happens, it'll happen fast. But my sense is that it'll be a narrowed deal, if…

The once-dominant Magnificent 7 are looking a little less magnificent. However, their substantial weightings in the broader indices mean they still command plenty of attention—and have considerable influence over the direction of the overall market.

Today’s trading highlights the increasingly mixed performance within the group. The major technology indices are moving higher:

• Nasdaq Composite: Up near 0.90%.

• Nasdaq 100: Up near 1.25%.

Nevertheless, three of the seven stocks are trading lower, with Meta down around 1.38%, Apple lower by roughly 1.40%, and Alphabet declining about 1%.

The group is no longer moving together. That makes the technical picture for each stock more important, especially with three major earnings announcements…

OpenAI is just out with a new model named GPT 6.1 Terra.

This isn't as strong as GPT-6 Astra but it's far more efficient and it gets to the heart of where AI is headed. AI is becoming a commodity faster than it is becoming an indispensable service.

Already we have the Sol model, which is near Astra at a fifth of the price but now we have Terra, which cuts the price in half again. OpenAI also touts the model as being particularly useful for automated computer use.

"Terra understands what’s on screen, takes action across apps, writes naturally, and is a more capable model for your whole workday with the efficiency to take on more of it."

I'm skeptical of the 'writes naturally' claims from any of the models but there has been steady improvements…

An extraordinary report from Israel Hayom says Saudi Arabia is seeking a ceasefire with the Houthis through a deal that would see $1 billion transferred to the Iranian-backed group via Tehran.

Citing unnamed Gulf diplomatic sources, the newspaper says Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman made a visit to Tehran to negotiate the agreement as part of today's four-way meeting with Turkey and Pakistan. One source went so far as to claim that the money was brought aboard the military transport aircraft carrying the Saudi delegation.

The report comes amid continuing Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and Iranian disruptions to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, both of which have severely constrained regional oil…

• High yield: 4.708%
• WI level at the time of the auction: 4.705%
• Tail: 0.3 basis points vs the average of a 0.2-basis-point stop-through
• Bid to cover: 2.59X vs the average of 2.64X
• Directs: 41.32% vs the average of 30.4%
• Indirects: 45.68% vs the average of 58.3%
• Dealers: 13.0% vs the average of 11.3%

Auction grade: C−

The auction was a little below average. The high yield came in 0.3 basis points above the WI level, meaning buyers needed a modest yield concession to absorb the supply. Bid to cover was also slightly below average. The bigger shift was in the bidder mix, with indirect participation falling to 45.68% while directs stepped up to take 41.32%. That stronger direct demand helped fill the gap, but dealers were still left with a larger…

Iran hosted the first four-way meeting of Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Tehran today, according to Fars.

The group released a short statement afterwards, noting that they had agreed to continuing talks. The lack of detail is naturally frustrating but this is undoubtedly a push to provide some kind of durable peace in the region.

Attendees:

• Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman
• Pakistan Field Marshal Asim Munir
• Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin
• Host: Mohsen Rezaei, identified as Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council

The four agreed to keep talking with a view to “strengthening cooperation,” including on regional peace and security. That’s the entire substance of the release.

WTI is down  $1.44 to $101.83…

Gold sellers took more control last week after the price broke below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages on Monday. The buyers could not reclaim those moving averages, and by Wednesday, the price began to accelerate to the downside.

That sequence is important from a technical perspective. A break below the moving averages gives sellers the initial advantage. Staying below them—and then moving farther away from them—shows that buyers are struggling to take back control. Last week, the sellers got their break and followed through.

The decline extended below the early October low near $4064 on Thursday before finding a bottom near $3975. The price bounced into the end of the week, but the recovery left sellers with the stronger hand and…

The USD is stronger across the major currencies today, including the CAD, AUD and NZD. The greenback is up around 0.24% versus both the Canadian and Australian dollars and approximately 0.35% versus the New Zealand dollar. All three currencies are trading nearer their session lows against the USD.

However, the dollar’s gains tell only part of the story. For traders, the next question is whether the technical breaks can be sustained. What levels keep the USD buyers in control, and what would signal that the momentum is fading?

In the video above, I take a look at each currency pair and outline the technical bias, the risks and the next targets.

USDCAD: Buyers make a move, but the 100-day MA remains a hurdle

The USDCAD moved above its 100-hour…

U.S. stocks are moving higher today after a mixed performance last week that saw technology shares take the brunt of the selling.

The Dow industrial average managed a modest weekly gain, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Nasdaq 100 finished lower. For the week:

• Dow industrial average: +0.41%.

• S&P 500: −0.47%.

• Nasdaq Composite: −0.71%.

• Nasdaq 100: −0.79%.

Today, the S&P 500 and both Nasdaq indices are bouncing back, with gains near 0.70%. That is an encouraging start for buyers. From a technical perspective, however, the next question is whether they can turn a bounce from support into a more sustained recovery.

Last week’s declines brought the indices toward identifiable support levels, and buyers responded. Now those buyers need to show…

The GBPUSD is trading to a new session low in early North American trading, with sellers pushing the price below the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the August high to the October low at 1.3342.

Earlier today, buyers leaned against that retracement level and managed a modest bounce to 1.3356. However, that recovery ran out of steam, and the subsequent break below 1.3342 has shifted the near-term focus toward the next downside hurdle: the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.33327.

With the price trading near 1.3334, that moving average is being tested. The battle between buyers and sellers is at an important level.

Sellers started with a ceiling above

The sellers gained confidence earlier in the Asian-Pacific session when the high…