Market News

Trump told Fox News that China will open its market in stages, buy US farm goods and oil, and receive shipments at Texas, Louisiana and Alaska ports, as oil prices rose and equity futures fell.

Summary:

• Trump said China will open its market in stages and intends to purchase significant volumes of US agricultural products and oil
• Chinese oil shipments were described as heading to Texas, Louisiana and Alaska
• Visa Company was raised by Trump as a topic in the US-China talks, though no detail was provided
• Oil prices rose following the comments while US equity index futures declined
• The 10-year US Treasury yield continued to climb, moving above 4.5%

President Donald Trump used a Fox News interview on Thursday evening to outline what he described as…

Japan's finance minister will attend the G7 meeting in France from May 17, flagging a flexible fiscal response to energy costs while noting rising global bond yields are likely to feature on the agenda.

Summary:

• Katayama will travel to France from May 17 to attend the G7 Finance Ministers' meeting
• Japan has 1 trillion yen in reserve funds within the fiscal 2026 budget and sees no immediate need for an extra budget
• The government will monitor how rising energy import costs feed through to electricity prices before deciding on any revival of energy subsidies
• A flexible fiscal response to protect household livelihoods was pledged
• Rising bond yields across major economies including the US and UK are expected to be a key topic at the G7 finance…

USTR Greer said an agricultural deal worth double-digit billions is expected from the US-China summit, with China meeting soybean commitments, though no tariff rate commitment was offered.

Summary:

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer:

• A deal for double-digit billions of dollars in US agricultural sales to China is expected to emerge from the summit, with China said to be fulfilling existing soybean purchase commitments
• Greer described the summit as having delivered significant successes in rebalancing trade with China, though he declined to commit to any specific tariff rate on Chinese goods
• Trade investigation findings are expected to be released within weeks
• Nvidia H200 chip purchases by China were described as a sovereign decision for…

Japan April 2026 PPI +4.9% y/y

• expected +3%, prior +2.6%

and +2.3% m/m

• prior +0.8%

Just the data post, I'll have more to come on this separately.

New Zealand's manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March, with new orders and raw material deliveries both contracting as Iran war freight disruptions weigh on the sector.

Summary: According to the BNZ/BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index for April 2026:

• The seasonally adjusted PMI fell to 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March and 54.6 in February, well below the long-term average of 52.5
• Employment was the strongest sub-index at 53.4, followed by Production at 51.7; New Orders and Raw Material Deliveries were both in contraction at 48.2 and 46.5 respectively
• Micro-firms with 1 to 10 employees recorded a sub-index of just 39.2; Medium-Large firms were the strongest size category at 56.8
• Nearly 64% of respondents cited…

This is not worthy of a US President, but here we are. Grovelling for approval from the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party.

• Another record close for the NASDAQ and S&P indices. Cerebras debuts and launches higher
• Dow is on pace to close above 50K for the 4th time ever.
• No Surprise: Fed's Miran submits resignation from Fed Board with Warsh replacing him
• Middle east headlines: Saudi Arabia had secret strkes against Iran
• Cerebras opens at $385. IPO price was $185 raising $5.5B at the IPO price
• Trump from China: China would not give Iran military equipment
• BOE Pill. The 2nd round effects of inflation may be stronger.
• KC Fed Pres Schmid: Inflation remains too high.
• US business inventories for March 0.9% versus 0.8% estimate.
• US import prices +1.9% versus +1.0% estimate. Export prices up 3.3% versus 1.1% estimate
• US weekly initial jobless claims 211K vs 205K expected
• Canada…

The Middle east news today was somewhat quiet as Pres. Trump met with China's Xi.

• Saudi Arabia had secretive strikes Iran after Iran attacked the energy facilities and civilian infrastructure – Wall Street Journal

Regarding Isreal and Lebanon talks:

• There is no serious breakthroughs in the peace negotiations
• Lebanon does not have much to offer regarding security issues raised in the negotiations.

Trump departs China on Friday, following a final tea and working lunch with Xi. So there are still a few more hours of meetings to go. The US president heads back to Washington after the meetings.

Regarding China, the Trump and Xi's talks lasted about 2 hours and 15 minutes, with Trump also visiting the Temple of Heaven alongside Xi afterward. Trump…

Cerebras (CBRS) IPO started trading at $385. The IPO price was set at $185 raising $5.5B at the IPO price. Investor in at the IPO price are already up 108.11%.

Cerebras is an AI chip designer that competes with Nvidia, known for its Wafer-Scale Engine (WSE) — a single chip designed to handle the computational demands of large language models more efficiently than clusters of traditional GPUs. Rather than cutting many small chips from a silicon wafer like the rest of the industry, the WSE-3 uses the entire wafer as a single chip — roughly 57 times larger than the largest competing GPU die — giving it vastly more on-chip memory, more processing cores, and higher interconnect bandwidth, all without the latency of communicating across a…

The NZDUSD is trading near session lows and pressing against the bottom of a key swing area between 0.5918 and 0.5935 — a zone that previously acted as resistance and, more recently, turned into support. Also within that area sits the 200-hour moving average at 0.5934, adding to its technical importance.

If sellers can break below the 0.5918 floor with momentum, the next downside target comes into focus near the 0.5900 level, where the 50% midpoint of the rally from the April 29 low is found at 0.59019. A sustained move below that broader support zone could open the door for a deeper decline toward 0.5830–0.5858 — an area where the pair spent much of its time trading between April 13 and May 6.

Conversely, if buyers can defend support near…

Speaking on a Fox Interview:

• China would not give Iran military equipment
• China agreed to order 200 Boeing jets
• Xi offered to help on Iran
• Xi said he would like to continue to buy oil from Iran.

Dan Ives: Poland could become Europe’s AI breakout story

Just heard one of my favorite analysts. An incredible wise, experienced, insightful and clear human that I think people shuld listen to.

Dan Ives of Wedbush believes Europe is at risk of falling further behind in the global technology race unless it becomes more supportive of AI innovation, entrepreneurs, and regulatory reform.

Speaking to Bloomberg while traveling in Europe and visiting an AI conference, Ives warned that the continent has already spent years lagging behind other major technology markets. In his view, the next phase of AI development could widen that gap if Europe fails to create a more attractive environment for builders, investors, and fast-moving technology…