Market News

• Prior was +9.8
• Employment 11.6 vs 15.1 prior
• capex 11.9 vs 8.5 prior
• New orders 9.3 vs 30.7 prior
• Prices paid 55.3 vs 52.2 prior
• Future index 38.1 vs 20.8 prior

The survey improved but that new orders reading is sending a conflicting signal from the future index. The comments in the report are often telling:

• We continue to see pressure on profitability. We are profitable, but barely. The challenge is the increase in costs we are paying for our raw materials. The increase in diesel costs is the justification we are being told from our suppliers. Being able to give our employees year-end raises to keep up with inflation will be a further pressure on profitability.

Markets are forward-looking. Markets often rally before the economy has actually improved. While inflation may still be elevated and central banks may still be reluctant to cut interest rates, stocks can rally simply because traders begin to believe that the worst-case scenario is becoming less likely.

In the current context, oil prices are central to this because energy is one of the main channels through which the geopolitical shock is affecting inflation, economic growth and monetary policy.

Oil is an input cost for businesses, a major component of household expenditure and an important driver of short-term inflation. Therefore, a sustained increase in oil prices can affect the most important side of the central bank's mandate: price…

Anthropic has filed the IPO that was rumored to be coming today.

An interesting bit of trivia is the ‘ant’ mythology. South Korean retail investors were dubbed ‘ants’ back in the 1980s, a put-down they eventually wore as a badge of honour. The term has gone global since COVID, and especially this year as the Kospi went parabolic. Separately, the people at Anthropic have long called themselves ‘Ants,’ a nod to the company name and its all-in culture. Now they’ve chosen ANT as their ticker, no doubt hoping for the kind of gains we saw in South Korean markets earlier this year.

As for the IPO, it's going to be a complicated one with five classes of stock, with the 'A' shares to be public. The overall count includes 846 million shares of Class…

Last week, the bitcoin buyers had their shot.

On Tuesday, they pushed the price above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages—the blue and green lines—and that break gave them the technical go-ahead to probe higher. The buying subsequently took the price above the ceiling near $84,178 and to a weekly high of $84,774 on Wednesday.

That was the opportunity for the buyers to take more control. They had cleared the hourly moving averages and broken above a familiar resistance level. The next step was to hold those breaks and build on the upside momentum.

They could not do it.

The price rotated lower as risk-off sentiment weighed on bitcoin. On Thursday, the decline took the price back below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, then near $82,225…

The Nasdaq sold off sharply last week as growth concerns coupled with widening credit spreads and risks of renewed US-Iran strikes weighed on risk sentiment. Although we haven’t seen any US attack so far, the risk increases as we get closer to the midterms.

The fundamentals continue to point towards further downside in the index given almost zero bullish drivers at the moment. Widening credit spreads, inflation pressures, growth risk, elevated energy prices, geopolitical tensions and hawkish Federal Reserve should keep any rebound limited.

The Middle East crisis is one of the most important factors. A de-escalation in the Saudi-Houthi conflict or a surprise…

The U.S. dollar is starting the new trading week higher, but the bigger story is what lies ahead. A Fed decision, a flood of corporate earnings and important U.S. economic releases will test expectations for interest rates, growth and the returns on massive artificial intelligence investments.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

U.S. stock futures are pointing modestly higher, while crude oil is down about 2% in the supplied morning snapshot. Diplomatic efforts involving Iran offer some encouragement, but the…

The peril of relying on prediction markets to invest in capital markets will be laid bare today as Brazilian markets are torn apart.

The EWZ Brazil ETF is down 25% premarket following the surprise win by incumbent President Lula over Flavio Bolsonaro. Betting markets had Bolsonaro over 75% after he led in the f irst round of voting earlier this month.

Polls showed a close race but a final push by Lula appears to have done enough as he won 51.79% to 48.21%, which translates into more than 4 million votes. Bolsonaro is refusing to concede so some of the weakness in markets might be about an uncertain outcome but it's mostly about a continuing left wing government in Brazil. The move also halts the march towards populism in latin America in a…

Headlines:

• Major central banks take centre stage this week but will there be any surprises?
• Oil retreats as Trump refrains from striking Iran over the weekend; risk of attacks keeps the market supported
• Chart of the day: Gold price tests $4,000 support, is a deeper correction looming?
• Gold could rebound in the near-term as growth and US strikes fears subside; eyes on the FOMC next
• European stock market open: Stocks push higher as French bond market tensions ease
• Germany Ifo business confidence improves in October as expectations surprise higher
• Heads up: European daylight saving time has ended, here's what traders need to know

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags on the day
• WTI crude oil down 2.6% to $100.75
• Gold up 0.6% to $4,019
• 10-year Treasury yields…

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As we get into the new week, Treasury yields are still sticking with the retreat from last week. 10-year yields are resting just below 5% today despite the fact that the inflation equation hasn't changed, as oil prices continue to push higher last week amid lingering tensions in the Middle East. And yet, tech stocks didn't exactly celebrate last week as the Nasdaq posted its first back-to-back weekly decline since July.

That sounds a little bid odd, doesn't it? Aren't lower bond yields supposed to be good for tech stocks?

Well, normally yes. However, I reckon that the story last week was more about where investors felt comfortable in putting their money. The question now is whether that story is going to keep up as we look to the weeks ahead.

Solana extended the losses into a major support zone recently as fears of potential US strikes on Iran weighed on the crypto market. Those fears proved to be unfounded, and we’ve started to see risk sentiment improve as oil prices eased.

In the bigger picture, nothing has changed, with the Middle East crisis continuing to put upward pressure on inflation while weighing on global growth. The Federal Reserve is also being forced to maintain a tightening bias, while the upcoming US midterm elections add another layer of uncertainty. These headwinds are likely to limit any major rally in Solana.

This week, the focus will be on Wednesday’s FOMC decision and further developments in…

Crude oil rallied strongly on Friday as expectations of US strikes on Iran over the weekend strengthened. Those fears proved to be wrong and oil prices opened the week lower.

However, Trump has suggested that strikes could resume after the US midterm elections. This threat is likely to keep crude oil supported.

Meanwhile, top officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are to meet Iran's leaders in Tehran today in their ‌first high-level contact since Saudi Arabia was drawn into war with the Houthis. Reuters sources say the meeting aims to discuss regional coordination amid escalating Houthi attacks and US-Iran tensions.

Looking ahead, oil prices will remain supported amid the…