Market News

The UK autumn budget is coming up on 28 October, just a week before the BOE's next monetary policy decision . And with inflation concerns still hanging over the economy, the government's fiscal plans could have a say in how interest rate expectations develop over the coming months.

For now, traders are pricing in roughly 99% odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the November meeting next week. So unless something really unexpected happens, that decision looks pretty much settled. As for December though, that is another story. Traders are currently pricing in around 47% odds of another rate hike before the year is out. That's essentially a coin toss and the autumn budget could be one to help tip expectations one way or the other.

So, what should…

Central banks influence financial markets through both interest rate decisions and communication. Speeches and interviews can change expectations for future monetary policy, affecting bonds, currencies, equities and so on. To limit these signals immediately before policy decisions, many central banks have a blackout period.

A blackout period is a predefined period during which policymakers are restricted from publicly discussing monetary policy or the upcoming decision. The rules vary across central banks, but the purpose is to ensure that official announcements remain the primary source of information about the committee's decision.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC blackout period begins at midnight eastern time on the second Saturday before a…

• Germany October Ifo business climate index 90.2 vs 90.0 expected
• Prior 89.9
• Germany October Ifo current conditions index 88.8 vs 89.9 expected
• Prior 89.5
• Germany October Ifo expectations index 91.6 vs 90.0 expected
• Prior 90.4

The breakdownThe survey continues to reaffirm a further improvement in German business sentiment, one that is especially backed by stronger a stronger outlook for the months ahead. The current conditions index showed a decline in October but the expectations index surprisingly climbed to its highest since February 2022.

The latter is the standout here and reaffirms a more resilient setting for the German economy, even though recent PMI data has revealed some underlying weakness.

Still, the survey numbers here are not exactly…

Ethereum broke below key technical levels recently as fears of potential US strikes on Iran weighed on the crypto market. The expectations proved to be wrong, and we’ve started to see a general rebound in risk sentiment as oil prices eased.

In the bigger picture, nothing has changed as the Middle East crisis continues to put upward pressure on inflation while being a drag on global growth. The Federal Reserve is forced to keep a tightening bias, and we have the midterm elections adding further uncertainty. These negative forces are likely to limit major rallies in Ethereum.

This week, the focus will be on the FOMC decision on Wednesday and the developments in the…

Gold extended the losses on the Friday as the US PMIs came out better than expected and quelled growth concerns for the time being. Expectations of potential US strikes on Iran over the weekend have also weighed on the precious metal but eventually proved to be wrong.

The downside in the final part of last week seemed to be driven mainly by liquidations to cover losses in the stock market, much like what we’ve seen in 2025. Real yields, which are the ultimate driver of gold prices, actually fell so we could see a pullback in the short-term despite the fundamentals still weighing on the precious metals. 

In the bigger picture, nothing has changed as the Middle East crisis continues to put upward pressure on…

Microsoft will report earnings on Wednesday, 28 October, and once again this will be one of those times where the numbers themselves might not be the biggest story.

Now, don't get me wrong. The results will still matter. Analysts are expecting revenue of around $90.6 billion, up nearly 17% from a year ago, alongside EPS of $4.71. Those are strong growth numbers, especially when you consider just how big Microsoft already is.

But as has been the case with most big tech earnings, investors will be paying much closer attention to what management has to say about Microsoft's AI ambitions more than anything else. And that will particularly be the case after the recent selloff in tech stocks over the past two weeks.

Microsoft is already spending…

• Eurostoxx +0.2%
• Germany DAX +0.6%
• France CAC 40 +0.7%
• UK FTSE 100 +0.4%
• Spain IBEX -0.6%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.8%

European stocks are enjoying a modestly positive start to the new week with most major indices opening higher as investors find some relief from the selling pressure last week. Of note, French stocks are among the better performers early on with the CAC 40 up 0.7%.

The mood music is helped by some good news from the bond market, as the France-Germany 10-year yield spread narrows to around 161 bps today - down from a high of 176 bps last week. That comes after Moody's maintained France's Aa3 credit rating on Friday, although it did retain a negative outlook. But considering all the worries surrounding France's fiscal position and…

Monday will be relatively quiet, with no significant scheduled events for the FX market, but the rest of the week will be packed with economic announcements.

On Tuesday, Japan will release the BoJ Core CPI y/y, while the U.S. will publish durable goods orders m/m, the CB consumer confidence, and new home sales.

On Wednesday, Australia will release inflation data, after which the focus will shift to the RBNZ monetary policy announcement in New Zealand. In the U.K., the annual Budget will be released, while Canada will announce its monetary policy decision. Meanwhile, in the U.S., markets will focus on the highly anticipated FOMC meeting.

On Thursday, the U.S. will release its advance GDP q/q figure, the core PCE price index m/m, and…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Surging oil prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns about persistent inflation shaped market sentiment during Monday’s U.S. overnight session. Middle East tensions supported crude oil prices, while higher borrowing-cost expectations put pressure on gold and U.S. equities. Economic surveys indicated that business activity remained strong, but growing price pressures raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer, limiting its ability to ease monetary policy.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should begin Monday by watching oil prices, Middle East tensions, the U.S. dollar, and Japanese…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.30%, Shanghai Composite down 0.18% Hang Seng up 0.44% ASX up 0.25%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,027.72 (0.50%) Silver at $54.280 (0.61%), Brent Oil at 109.63 (-1.85%), WTI Oil at 101.01 (-2.19%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.965, UK 10-year yield at 5.3656, Germany 10-year yield at 3.3434

●        (USD)  Flash Manufacturing PMI   57.9 to 57.9  expected

U.S. stock futures rose on Sunday evening as investors prepared for a series of central bank interest rate decisions this week. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.6%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 128 points, or 0.2%.

The…