Market News

Dan Ives: Poland could become Europe’s AI breakout story

Just heard one of my favorite analysts. An incredible wise, experienced, insightful and clear human that I think people shuld listen to.

Dan Ives of Wedbush believes Europe is at risk of falling further behind in the global technology race unless it becomes more supportive of AI innovation, entrepreneurs, and regulatory reform.

Speaking to Bloomberg while traveling in Europe and visiting an AI conference, Ives warned that the continent has already spent years lagging behind other major technology markets. In his view, the next phase of AI development could widen that gap if Europe fails to create a more attractive environment for builders, investors, and fast-moving technology…

• Prior month 0.4%
• Total business inventories increased 0.9% in March to $2.710 trillion.
• Inventories were up 2.0% from a year earlier, but continued to trail the pace of sales growth.
• Combined distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments totaled $2.059 trillion in March.
• Sales increased 2.1% from February 2026
• The inventories-to-sales ratio declined to 1.32 in March from 1.38 in March 2025.
• The lower inventories-to-sales ratio suggests businesses are selling goods more efficiently, with demand remaining firm relative to inventory levels
• Sales were up 7.1% from March 2025, highlighting continued strength in business activity.

The data are adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences, but not for inflation. Inventories are…

Headlines:

• China president Xi says mutual respect is key to stable US-China ties
• China purchases of soybeans are all taken care of, says Bessent
• Trump and Xi had a good meeting, says White House official
• USD/JPY flirts with a key upside breakout as yen's intervention-led gains continue to fade
• Nasdaq analysis today after Trump and Xi met
• ECB's Kazaks: Preserving anchored inflation expectations is the priority for ECB policy
• BOJ policymaker Masu warns that yen depreciation may raise inflation expectations
• Spain inflation eases a little in April but still much higher than before US-Iran conflict
• UK Q1 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected
• China new bank loans disappoint in April as sluggish start to the year continues

Markets:

• S&P 500 futures up…

The inflation scare is a being shown in the imported export price data for the month of April

• import prices for April +1.9% versus 1.0% estimate. Prior month revised higher to 0.9% from 0.8% previously reported.
• Export prices for April +3.3% versus 1.1% expected. Prior month revised lower to 1.5% from 1.6% previously reported

Details from Import prices:

• U.S. import prices rose +1.9% in April after gains of +0.9% in March and +1.0% in February.
• Import prices year-over-year increased +4.2%, the largest annual gain since October 2022.
• Fuel import prices surged +16.3% in April after rising +10.0% in March.
• The monthly increase in fuel prices was the largest since March 2022 (+17.8%).
• Import petroleum and petroleum product prices climbed…

• Prior month 1.7% revised lower to 1.6%
• Retail sales 0.5% vs 0.5% estimate
• Ex Auto 0.7% vs 0.6% estimate. Prior 1.9%
• Ex Gas and Auto 0.5% vs 0.6% last month. Prior month 0.7% revised higher from 0.6%
• Control group 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Prior revised higher to 0.8% from 0.7%. The control group feeds into the US GDP
• YoY retail sales are up 4.9% up 0.5% from last month

The data for retail sales coming off a strong month, remained strong this month. Note that the retail sales are NOT adjusted for inflation. So if prices are going higher, retail sales goes higher. We know prices are higher.

What does the Retail Sales report measure?

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales report, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, provides the earliest monthly snapshot…

• Prior was +2.0% (revised to +2.4%)

Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 1.9% to $89.0 billion in March. Sales increased in five of the seven subsectors, representing 79.6% of total wholesale sales.

The largest increase came from the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector. Wholesale sales were 3.3% higher in March than in the same month one year earlier. In volume terms, wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) increased 1.7% in March.

Wholesale sales were 1.8% higher in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025.

Canada's wholesale trade data primarily measures…

• Prior week 200K (revised to 199K)
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9
• Four-week moving average 203.75K vs 203.0K prior (revised from 203.25K)
• Continuing claims 1,782K vs 1,790K expected
• Prior continuing claims 1,766K (revised to 1,758K)
• Four-week moving average continuing claims 1,781K vs 1,787.75K prior (revised to 1,787.75K)
• Insured unemployment rate 1.2% vs 1.1% prior (revised down from 1.2%)
• Largest state increases in initial claims (NSA, week ending May 9): Florida (+2,395), Texas (+2,007), Kentucky (+1,744), Pennsylvania (+1,166), New York (+1,270)
• Largest state decreases: California (-872), Michigan (-701), New Hampshire (-625), Rhode Island (-189), Missouri (-151)

Initial claims popped 12K off a downward-revised 199K…

• Discussed purchases, will talk about board of trade
• We are trying to balance trade out
• US has a stronger position because of our trade deficit with China
• Will also discuss board of investments, that will cover non-strategic and non-sensitive areas where China can invest
• Think we're going to see large Boeing orders
• Also talked about China buying more energy today
• Thinks China will do what it can on the Strait of Hormuz
• The reopening of the strait benefits China
• Believes that China will work behind the scenes to the best of their capabilities

On the headline remark, we've been here one too many a time. It has been an issue for more than a decade already. Anyone can still remember the Phase One trade deal? Well, that was pretty much a joke at the end…

We have China president Xi Jinping up first:

• Had in-depth exchange of views with US president Trump today
• We both believe US-China ties are the most important bilateral ties in the world
• US, China should become partners, not rivals
• Mutual respect is key to stable US-China ties
• Should jointly promote relations between the two countries along the right path

Meanwhile, US president Trump says that:

• We had extremely positive and constructive discussions
• US-China relationship is one of the most consequential in world history

More to come..

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.04%, Shanghai Composite down 1.02% Hang Seng up 0.50% ASX down 0.17%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,711.34 (0.13%) Silver at $87.675 (-1.91%), Brent Oil at $106.04 (0.38%), WTI Oil at $101.51 (0.49%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.461, UK 10-year yield at 5.0750, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1098

• (USD) Core PPI m/m  1.0%  to 0.3%   expected

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday as investors closely watched a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for signals on the future of trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday alongside several…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 14 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets navigated lingering U.S.-Iran diplomatic hopes that tempered oil prices (WTI at $96.31 after -2.8% drop), boosting risk assets like Japan’s Nikkei and Korea’s Kospi despite no fresh macro data; however, hawkish BoJ echoes and Middle East risks kept volatility high, most impacting crude futures, tech-heavy indices (Samsung up sharply prior), and yen strength, with broader U.S. futures stable.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders must monitor the fallout from yesterday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index rise of 1.4% in April, coupled with weak 30-year bond auction demand, which underscores inflation risks…