Market News

A hold is largely the base case, so the yen and JGB yields are likely to take their cue from the language rather than the decision. A formal declaration that underlying inflation has reached 2%, a Takata dissent and any shift by Ueda toward “next meeting” phrasing would together read as hawkish, supporting the yen and pushing short-end yields higher as markets price a December move. Higher crude prices are a key upside risk, with oil already reigniting upstream cost pressure and feeding the BOJ’s concern about inflation overshooting. A guarded Ueda who stresses a broad review of financial conditions could see December pricing trimmed and the yen soften.

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Also this week:

• Preview: RBNZ set to lift OCR to 3% ahead of election as oil and weak…

A growing reliance on debt to fund AI infrastructure ties the tech trade more closely to the rates outlook, so hawkish central bank signals, including a Fed on a hiking path, could weigh harder on capex-heavy names than in earlier phases of the boom. Credit markets are likely to see heavier tech bond issuance, and investors may demand wider spreads if deployment delays push back revenue. Next week’s Big Tech results are the near-term catalyst: firm capex guidance paired with clearer monetisation would ease funding concerns, while rising spend without visible returns could deepen the mixed share-price reactions already evident. The bank’s preference for diversification points to potential rotation toward sectors and regions outside…

With a hike close to fully priced, the Canadian dollar’s reaction will likely turn on the Monetary Policy Report and forward guidance rather than the decision itself. A hold would be a sizeable surprise, likely sending the loonie sharply lower and pulling short-dated Canadian yields down. A hike signalling further tightening would support the currency and push the front end higher, while a “one and watch” message could see pricing for a follow-up move by March trimmed. Oil is the external wildcard: higher crude both lifts Canadian headline inflation and supports the commodity-linked loonie, so further energy price gains would reinforce the hawkish case. Friday’s August GDP data could then quickly test whatever guidance the bank delivers.

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With a hike close to fully priced, the New Zealand dollar’s reaction is likely to hinge on guidance rather than the move itself, and the risk is asymmetric: a hold would catch markets badly offside and could trigger a sharp kiwi selloff. A hike paired with a clear tightening bias would be the most supportive outcome for the NZD and would push front-end yields higher, while “wait and see” language could see some of the priced peak trimmed. Oil remains the key external driver: further gains in crude linked to the Middle East conflict would feed straight into New Zealand’s fuel-heavy inflation outlook and strengthen the case for more hikes into 2027. AUD/NZD traders also face back-to-back central bank risk, with the RBA expected to hike…

Bitcoin is approaching an important decision point for swing traders. Sellers have demonstrated their strength, but buyers are showing signs of defending the $80,000 area. The latest investingLive tradeCompass maps two conditional scenarios: bullish above $80,860 and bearish below $79,870.

The challenge is distinguishing a temporary rebound from a more durable recovery, or a brief dip from another significant breakdown.

Bitcoin tradeCompass: The bullish and bearish levels

The tradeCompass identifies two directional thresholds. Traders can use them to prepare for either outcome rather than commit to a prediction.

Bullish Bitcoin above $80,860

A sustained move above $80,860 would strengthen the case that Bitcoin's recent stabilization is…

Saylor skips his Sunday bitcoin chart as Strategy heads into earningsStrategy chairman Michael Saylor did not share his usual Sunday bitcoin chart this week. Bitcoin watchers read that as a sign that Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, may have paused its buying. Saylor was active on X on Sunday: he described bitcoin as “the moat” in a reply to Jack Dorsey. But the chart that usually comes before a purchase announcement did not appear. A missing chart is a signal, not a confirmation. The company’s Monday filing will settle the question, and its third-quarter results follow on Thursday.

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Earlier:

• Bitcoin buyers are fighting back, but sellers aren't finished. Here are the two prices swing traders should watch

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What…

Early FX indications, very early here in Asia-Pac, USD a little softer:

• EUR/USD 1.1226
• USD/JPY 156.89
• GBP/USD 1.337
• USD/CHF 0.8245
• USD/CAD 1.4027
• AUD/USD 0.7024
• NZD/USD 0.5690

I'll be back with weekend news. 

It's a light data ageanda ahead. 

Coming up soon from the Reserve Bank of Australia:

• Panel Participation by Brad Jones, Assistant Governor (Financial System), at the AFR Super and Wealth Summit, Melbourne
• 2110 GMT / 1710 US Eastern time 

I suspect Jones won't have much, if anything , to say on monetary policy.

The comments should keep the Australian dollar supported, at the margin, on rate differentials and hold short-dated Australian government bond yields elevated, with markets likely to lean further toward a November hike unless Wednesday’s inflation data surprise lower. Oil is the swing variable: renewed escalation in the US-Iran war that lifts crude would deepen the RBA’s concern about second-round effects and raise the risk of tightening beyond November. A sustained easing in crude, by contrast, would give the board more room to signal a pause after its next move. Property-linked stocks and consumer discretionary names on the ASX remain exposed to a higher-for-longer policy path.

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Earlier:

• Economic and event calendar in Asia Monday, October…

The cut removes one of the most bullish institutional Kospi targets from the table, but the bank’s insistence on deep value gives contrarian investors a framework for buying into weakness rather than chasing the selloff lower. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix remain the swing factor, since any stabilisation in sentiment toward AI capital spending would likely feed directly into the index given their weight. The sector preferences point to a possible rotation inside Korean equities, away from memory chips and toward power, industrials and domestically focused names, which could limit the downside for the broader market even if chip stocks stay under pressure. Foreign investor flows will be the key signal of whether the valuation argument…

The proposal adds to already tense US-China relations and keeps headline risk elevated for Chinese technology and biotech stocks, including US-listed ADRs and the Hang Seng Tech index. Biotech is the sector most directly exposed, since it is the newly targeted industry and has relied more heavily on cross-border funding than areas already under restriction. Beijing has not named the countermeasures it might take, and that vagueness tends to keep investors cautious until the response becomes clear. A long public comment period leaves time for negotiation, but it also stretches the uncertainty out for months, which could weigh on risk appetite toward China-exposed assets and the offshore yuan if rhetoric escalates.

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Washington wants to…

Why trade Bitcoin if stocks can double? The leverage question traders miss

A trader recently asked: "Why trade Bitcoin? What's it gonna do, 2x, 3x? These days stocks can do that. So what's the point?"

It's a reasonable question, but it misses something fundamental about trading: leverage.

Traders don't necessarily need Bitcoin, gold or a stock to double in price to achieve a substantial percentage return on their trading capital. Depending on the financial instrument and the size of their position, even a relatively small price movement can have a significant impact on their account.

Unfortunately, that works in both directions. Leverage can accelerate profits, but it can also destroy a trading account surprisingly quickly.

Understanding how…