Market News

• Brazil ETF tumbles nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula’s comeback runoff win
• Saudi Arabia to store crude in Singapore caverns from 2027 as Hormuz disruption bites
• Goldman’s 79-tonne central bank gold estimate goes mainstream as reserves shift to London
• BOJ to hold at 1.25%, but Ueda signals further hikes toward neutral
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7162 (vs. estimate at 6.6691)
• Gold dips below $4,000 as long liquidation swamps ETF buying, Saxo Bank says
• Musk says SpaceX closed $40 billion GPU debt deal, predicts neocloud shakeout
• ECB set to hold at 2.50% as Morgan Stanley sees December as natural moment for next hike
• Nikkei slips, bounces, as Iran oil fears weigh; ING sees BOJ holding at 1.25%, two hikes in 2027
• Gold dips below…

Heavy official-sector buying offers a structural cushion beneath gold just as speculative liquidation has dragged prices below $4,000, and it supports the argument that dips are being absorbed by long-term buyers. It does not guarantee a floor, however: near-term direction still depends on oil, yields and Fed expectations, and central bank demand did not prevent last week’s slide. The gap between Goldman’s flow-based estimate and officially reported purchases suggests accumulation may be larger than disclosed, which matters for the longer-run supply-demand balance. The shift of holdings from New York to London is a reserve-management story rather than an immediate price driver, but it adds to debate over the dollar’s role in official…

The arrangement will not add barrels before the second half of 2027, so the near-term price impact is limited, but it signals that producers and consumers expect Strait of Hormuz risk to persist well beyond the current war. Storage closer to Asian refiners would give Saudi Arabia a buffer to keep supplying key customers during future disruptions, helping defend its market share in the region against rival suppliers. Over time, a strategic stockpile in Singapore could reduce the risk premium Asian buyers pay during supply scares and strengthen the city-state’s role as a regional pricing and trading hub. For now, oil markets remain driven by the immediate disruption to Hormuz flows, which this deal does not address.

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With the Strait of…

Musk’s warning lands on a sector already under pressure, and pure-play neocloud names such as CoreWeave and Nebius are likely to stay vulnerable as investors question their access to debt funding. The deal reinforces a widening split in AI financing, with diversified, investment-grade borrowers still able to raise capital while AI-dependent firms are squeezed. For Nvidia, the financing points to continued large-scale GPU demand into the first half of 2027. Credit markets will watch the final pricing and structure as a gauge of investor appetite for AI-linked debt.

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Earlier:

• Standard Chartered sees debt-funded share of AI capex rising to 40% in 2027 from 25%

--- SpaceX can still borrow $40 billion for AI chips on the strength of Starlink…

The split between fast-money selling and steady ETF accumulation leaves gold finely balanced: if long liquidation is close to exhausted, structural buyers could provide a base, but a decisive break of trendline support would likely trigger another round of technical selling. This week’s Fed decision and oil prices are the near-term catalysts, since any renewed jump in energy costs that lifts rate expectations would add pressure. A gold-silver ratio above 74 signals that markets are pricing industrial demand risk and broader de-risking, leaving silver more exposed if equities wobble. Speculative positioning has already been pared, which reduces some of the forced-selling risk from here.

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Earlier:

• Gold dips below $4,000 in worst week in…

Strongest level for CNY at the setting since 2 February 2023. 

• The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
• PBOC injects 398 billion yuan through overnight reverse repos
• PBOC injects 56 billion yuan through 7 day reverse repos @1.4%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

With a hold widely expected, yen and JGB moves are likely to hinge on the vote and Ueda’s guidance. Hawkish dissent from Takata or Tamura, or language pointing to the next meeting, would probably bring December pricing forward and offer the yen some support. A unanimous hold paired with cautious messaging could see hike expectations drift toward January, keeping the yen soft. Front-end JGB yields remain the most sensitive gauge of shifts in timing, and Friday’s Tokyo CPI print lands on the same day as the decision, adding to the potential for volatility.

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Earlier:

• ING sees BOJ holding at 1.25%, two hikes in 2027
• BOJ preview: Daiwa sees hold, but 2% inflation call could open door to December hike

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Ueda is in no rush to hike again this…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

Oil is the dominant risk for Japanese assets near term: as a major energy importer, Japan is exposed to any further rise in crude tied to the Iran conflict, which would pressure corporate margins and the trade balance and keep the yen soft near 157 per dollar. A sustained climb in oil would also reinforce imported inflation, complicating the BOJ’s preference to wait and potentially pulling hike expectations forward from January. With a hold fully priced, the yen and JGB yields are likely to react to guidance rather than the decision, and a more hawkish tone could offer the currency some relief. Tech and chip-related names remain the most sensitive part of the market to risk-off swings driven by Middle East headlines.

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Tokyo stocks are…

With a hold almost fully priced, the euro’s reaction will turn on whether Lagarde validates December hike expectations or keeps full optionality, and a noncommittal message could see some tightening priced out and weigh on the single currency. The Fed decision a day earlier sets the backdrop for EUR/USD, so a hawkish Fed followed by a cautious ECB would be the most euro-negative combination. Higher oil linked to the Middle East conflict remains the main upside risk to eurozone inflation and to hike pricing. French government bonds are exposed to any sign that the ECB sees the recent rise in yields as a concern rather than welcome tightening, and Friday’s flash inflation and GDP data could quickly reprice December either way.

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Earlier:

• ING…

Bitcoin ETF demand returned last week, then faded. Now price is testing the ETF buyers’ cost basis

Money came back into US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week, but it didn’t stay. The funds took in about $1.07 billion over the first three sessions, then lost $773.5 million over the final two, according to preliminary Farside data. That left a provisional net inflow of $301.2 million for the week to October 23. Bitcoin, meanwhile, slipped back toward $80,000, close to the level where the average ETF buyer would start losing money.

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Earlier:

• Bitcoin buyers are fighting back, but sellers aren't finished. Here are the two prices swing traders should watch
• Strategy bitcoin purchases shrink as buybacks take priority ahead of earnings

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With a Fed hold widely expected, gold’s next move hinges on tone: any signal that a December hike remains live would likely lift yields and the dollar and push bullion back below $4,000, while a more balanced message could trigger a relief bounce from oversold levels. Oil is the key transmission channel, and further escalation in the Middle East that lifts crude would likely weigh on gold through higher inflation and rate expectations rather than support it as a haven. A softer PCE print on Thursday would offer the clearest route to a short-covering rally. Silver and gold miners, which underperformed last week, are likely to move with higher beta in either direction.

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Not gold, but interesting:

• Bitcoin ETF inflows fade as price pressure…