This week will have a slow start, with the only notable events for Monday being scheduled speeches from a few FOMC members.
On Tuesday, we’ll get the Westpac consumer sentiment index in Australia, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada will release their respective meeting minutes. However, the most awaited release will be the inflation print in the U.S.
As a reminder, the BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.25% at its last meeting, so traders will look for any hints in the Bank’s Summary of Opinions about the possibility and timing of future rate hikes, as well as policymakers’ views on the progress of inflation.
Similarly, the BoC’s Summary of Deliberations will provide more information about the Bank’s latest decision to raise rates. Arguments included higher energy costs and the resulting price pressures in the economy, while counter-arguments for holding rates were weaker economic growth and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. The focus will be on any clues about further tightening, but the Bank has signaled a cautious approach amid uncertainty.
Wednesday’s economic calendar looks uneventful with both Canada and the U.S. observing bank holidays, while Thursday the focus will be on the U.K.’s GDP data.
The week will end with the PPI m/m release in the U.S., but it’s worth noting that several FOMC members are expected to deliver remarks throughout the week.
In the U.S., the consensus for core CPI m/m is 0.2% vs. the prior 0.3%, while headline CPI m/m is expected at 0.3% vs. the prior 0.6%.
This CPI release will be somewhat different, as the BLS will not publish the year-on-year readings due to missing data from the October 2025 government shutdown. This puts the focus on the monthly figures.
Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.28%, with slower gasoline inflation partly offset by higher food costs as increased commodity and transportation expenses feed through to consumers.
Core CPI is also likely to rise, but at a slower pace. Wells Fargo analysts expect goods inflation to ease, especially since the previous price increases in clothing and toys are unlikely to be repeated. Within services, shelter inflation is expected to return to a more normal pace, while travel-related costs should lose some momentum following previous increases in airfare and hotel prices.
A softer core inflation reading will signal some relief following last month’s upside surprise but the overall disinflation process remains slow and uneven, strengthening the case for another rate hike at the December meeting, Wells Fargo said. Meanwhile, Scotiabank analysts note that alternative data sources, including Bloomberg’s price project, reinforce a recent rise in headline inflation year-over-year.
The U.S. will also release the PPI figures on Friday, but the annual reading faces the same limits as the CPI one due to missing data. The month-over-month print is expected at 0.4% vs. 1.3% prior.
In the U.K., the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.0% vs. the prior 0.1%, while preliminary GDP q/q is expected at 0.7% vs. the prior 0.5%. The main factors supporting growth have been business services and investment spending, particularly in activities related to AI and technology.
That said, higher energy bills and mortgage costs have continued to weigh on household spending and consumer-facing sectors. Survey data suggests that growth momentum weakened towards the end of the quarter, Wells Fargo analysts said. In terms of monetary policy, the BoE faces a challenging balancing act. Inflation remains a concern, while resilient economic activity gives policymakers less room to delay further tightening. As a reminder, the BoE delivered a 25 bps rate hike at its last meeting with another hike expected in Q1 next year.
This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.