Canada headline CPI to bounce to 3% in March – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities expect the Consumer Price Index in Canada to rise 3% in March.

“We look for headline CPI to bounce 0.2pp higher to 3.0% y/y in March as prices rise by 0.7% m/m (market: 0.7% m/m, 2.9% y/y), underpinned by another large increase for the energy component alongside a partial rebound in food prices and core goods.”

“A return to more broad-based price pressures should also translate to a larger increase for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred measures of core inflation, with CPI-trim/median forecast to rise by 0.3% m/m, which would still translate to a modest deceleration on a 3m annualized basis. However, the expected move higher for headline CPI and a larger m/m increase for core measures stand in contrast to the BoC’s desire for more evidence that recent progress will be sustained and even though the Bank will have the April CPI report in hand for its next policy decision, we do not expect it to have enough evidence of sustained deceleration until July.”