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ECB’s de Guindos: Ready to modify policy if new data confirm our recent assessment
ECB’s de Guindos: Ready to modify policy if new data confirm our recent assessment

ECB’s de Guindos: Ready to modify policy if new data confirm our recent assessment

374680   February 28, 2024 17:21   FXStreet   Market News  


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European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed his view on the central bank’s policy outlook during his appearance on Wednesday.

Key takeaways

Recent inflation outlook has been very positive, prices will continue to decline, we need to be sure that prices will move towards our 2% target.

If new data confirm our recent assessment, ECB’s governing council will modify its monetary policy.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is attacking 1.0800, down  0.37% on the day.

ECB FAQs

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

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Gold price flat-lines below 50-day SMA as traders keenly await US PCE data on Thursday
Gold price flat-lines below 50-day SMA as traders keenly await US PCE data on Thursday

Gold price flat-lines below 50-day SMA as traders keenly await US PCE data on Thursday

374679   February 28, 2024 17:21   FXStreet   Market News  


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  • Gold price is seen extending its sideways consolidative price move on Wednesday. 
  • Hawkish Fed expectations underpin the USD and act as a headwind for the metal.
  • The downside seems limited ahead of the crucial US PCE Price Index on Thursday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and remains confined in a multi-day-old trading range through the early European session. The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until the June policy meeting before cutting interest rates, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, the underlying strong bullish sentiment around the global equity markets turns out to be another factor capping the upside for the safe-haven commodity. 

That said, nervousness ahead of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday keeps a lid on any further optimism. Furthermore, a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields holds back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets around the Gold price and helps limit the downside. Traders now look to the release of the prelim US Q4 GDP print, due later during the early North American session. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members and the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand and produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD. 

Daily digest market movers: Gold price is pressured by modest USD strength, downside remains cushioned

  • A combination of diverging forces fails to provide any meaningful impetus to the Gold price, which extends its consolidative price move in a nearly one-week-old trading range.
  • The Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer interest rates narrative lends some support to the US Dollar and continues to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal on Wednesday.
  • A fresh leg down in the US bond yields, along with the looming US government shutdown and Tuesday’s disappointing release of US Durable Goods Orders, should cap the USD.
  • US President Joe Biden emphasized the necessity of finding a solution to prevent a detrimental government shutdown on March 1 as a legislative logjam showed no signs of abating.
  • The US Census Bureau reported that orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods experienced a larger-than-expected decline of 6.1% in January, the most in nearly four years.
  • Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell after three straight months of gains and came in at 106.7 for February, despite declining inflation expectations.
  • The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index recorded the fourth successive month of a negative reading, though improved to -5 in February as compared to  -15 in the previous month.
  • Traders now look to the release of the Prelim US GDP print, which is expected to match the original estimates and show that the economy expanded by a 3.3% annualized pace in Q4.
  • This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, will play a key role in driving the USD demand and producing some meaningful trading opportunities around the XAU/USD.
  • The focus, however, remains glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on Thursday, which should provide fresh cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path.

Technical analysis: Gold price struggles to make it through the 50-day SMA, remains below $2,040-42 hurdle

From a technical perspective, the $2,041-2,042 area, or over a two-week high touched last Thursday, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle and cap gains for the Gold price. That said, a sustained strength beyond will confirm a break through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) barrier and pave the way for additional gains. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction, the XAU/USD might then climb to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,065 region before aiming to reclaim the $2,100 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the weekly trough. around the $2,025 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 100-day SMA, currently near the $2,011-2,010 area, and the $2,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling below the latter will shift the near-term bias back in favour of bearish traders and drag the Gold price to the $1,984 region en route to the very important 200-day SMA support near the $1,967 zone.

US Dollar price today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.09% 0.09% 0.07% 0.33% -0.02% 1.03% 0.09%
EUR -0.07%   0.02% -0.01% 0.27% -0.10% 0.96% 0.01%
GBP -0.10% -0.02%   -0.02% 0.25% -0.12% 0.94% -0.01%
CAD -0.07% 0.00% 0.02%   0.26% -0.10% 0.96% 0.04%
AUD -0.34% -0.27% -0.25% -0.27%   -0.37% 0.70% -0.26%
JPY 0.02% 0.09% 0.11% 0.09% 0.36%   1.06% 0.11%
NZD -1.04% -0.99% -0.97% -0.98% -0.71% -1.08%   -0.96%
CHF -0.09% 0.00% 0.00% -0.02% 0.22% -0.11% 0.94%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Economic Indicator

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures.” Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Read more.

Next release: 02/29/2024 13:30:00 GMT

Frequency: Monthly

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

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Aussie looks attractive in the medium term – ING
Aussie looks attractive in the medium term – ING

Aussie looks attractive in the medium term – ING

374678   February 28, 2024 17:17   FXStreet   Market News  


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The Australian Dollar (AUD) declined after lower-than-expected Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). Economists at ING analyze Aussie’s outlook.

Not trusting AUD weakness

In Australia, January inflation was unchanged at 3.4%, below the 3.6% consensus. That contributed to the AUD’s weakness, with some of that weakness also a consequence of the RBNZ decision. 

We remain worried about the prospects of disinflation in Australia, and we expect higher inflation in February and towards the middle of the year before a clearer downward path re-emerges. 

We do not exclude another rate hike by the RBA, and we still think AUD looks attractive in the medium term.

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EUR/USD hits fresh weekly low around 1.0800 on broad-based USD strength
EUR/USD hits fresh weekly low around 1.0800 on broad-based USD strength

EUR/USD hits fresh weekly low around 1.0800 on broad-based USD strength

374677   February 28, 2024 17:17   FXStreet   Market News  


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  • EUR/USD drifts lower for the second straight day amid resurgent USD demand.
  • Hawkish Fed expectations and the cautious mood boost the safe-haven buck.
  • Reduced bets for more aggressive ECB rate cuts could limit any further losses.

The EUR/USD pair extends the previous day’s modest pullback from the 1.0865 region and remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Wednesday. The downward trajectory drags spot prices closer to a fresh weekly low, around the 1.0800 mark during the early European session,  driven by a pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) higher-for-longer interest rates narrative, the market nervousness ahead of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday appears to be benefiting the safe-haven buck.

Investors this week will also confront a slew of inflation reports from Germany, France and Spain on Thursday, followed by the flash Eurozone CPI print on Friday. In the meantime, the flight to safety triggers a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields and might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Moreover, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have been pushing back against market expectations for a rapid monetary policy easing. This could support the shared currency and limit any meaningful depreciating move for the EUR/USD pair.

Daily digest market movers: Bulls remain on the sidelines despite delayed ECB rate cut bets

  • The Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook on interest rates, along with the cautious market mood, boosts the safe-haven US Dollar and drags the EUR/USD pair lower for the second successive day on Wednesday.
  • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday that she was in no rush to cut interest rates and that the slower-than-expected progress on inflation has left policymakers cautious about monetary policy stance. This reaffirms bets that the US central bank will wait until June before cutting rates and tempers investors’ appetite for riskier assets ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index on Thursday.
  • Meanwhile, the looming US government shutdown and Tuesday’s disappointing release of US Durable Goods Orders do little to influence the USD uptick, though retreating US Treasury bond yields might cap gains.
  • US President Joe Biden urged Congress leaders to move quickly and emphasized the necessity of finding a solution to avert a detrimental government shutdown as a legislative logjam showed no signs of abating.
  • The US Census Bureau reported that orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods registered a steep fall of 6.1% in January, the most in nearly four years and worse than the 4.5% decline anticipated.
  • Separately, the Conference Board’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 106.7 for February after three straight months of gains amid anxiety over potential recession, despite declining inflation expectations.
  • Furthermore, the Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index recorded the fourth successive month of a negative reading, though it improved to -5 in February as compared to  -15 in the previous month.
  • Traders have scaled back their bets for a rapid reduction in borrowing costs by the European Central Bank and now expect less than 100 bps of rate cuts this year, down from around 150 bps at the start of February.
  • The market focus remains on the country-level consumer inflation data from Germany, France and Spain, to be published on Thursday. These data will be followed by the Eurozone region-wide flash CPI print on Friday.

Technical analysis: Mixed setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets

From a technical perspective, the recent failure ahead of the 1.0900 mark and the subsequent slide below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm the negative outlook and warrant some caution before positioning for any further losses. Hence, any further downfall is more likely to find decent support near the 1.0785 horizontal zone. The said area should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively could make the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall back towards retesting sub-1.0700 levels, or a three-month low touched on February 14.

On the flip side, the 1.0850 region seems to act as an immediate resistance, above which the EUR/USD pair could make a fresh attempt to conquer the 1.0900 round figure. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move towards reclaiming the 1.1000 psychological mark for the first time since January 11.

Euro price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.32% 0.37% 0.32% 0.68% 0.19% 1.06% 0.21%
EUR -0.29%   0.08% 0.01% 0.39% -0.13% 0.77% -0.10%
GBP -0.37% -0.07%   -0.06% 0.30% -0.19% 0.69% -0.19%
CAD -0.32% -0.04% 0.06%   0.36% -0.13% 0.75% -0.09%
AUD -0.70% -0.39% -0.32% -0.38%   -0.51% 0.38% -0.48%
JPY -0.19% 0.10% 0.17% 0.12% 0.52%   0.87% 0.02%
NZD -1.08% -0.77% -0.69% -0.76% -0.39% -0.89%   -0.86%
CHF -0.21% 0.11% 0.16% 0.10% 0.49% -0.02% 0.85%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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USD/CAD extends gains to near 1.3570 on lower Crude oil prices, awaits GDP from US, Canada
USD/CAD extends gains to near 1.3570 on lower Crude oil prices, awaits GDP from US, Canada

USD/CAD extends gains to near 1.3570 on lower Crude oil prices, awaits GDP from US, Canada

374675   February 28, 2024 17:12   FXStreet   Market News  


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  • USD/CAD continues to gain ground on risk-off sentiment ahead of GDP data from both nations.
  • The Canadian Dollar faces challenges due to the decline in the WTI price.
  • CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 1.0% probability of rate cuts in March.

USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading higher around 1.3570 during the European session on Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) received downward pressure due to the decline in Crude oil prices, consequently, underpinning the USD/CAD pair. Furthermore, Canada’s Gross Domestic Product data will be eyed later in the North American session.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices snap its two-day winning streak, dropping to near $77.80 per barrel, at the time of writing. The challenges facing the oil market due to higher borrowing costs are indeed impacting global economic growth and reducing oil demand.

Additionally, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, along with the continued targeting of civilian shipping vessels in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthis, adds further complexity to the situation.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) gains ground despite the subdued US Treasury yields. The DXY rises to nearly 104.10, while the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.69% and 4.29%, respectively, by the press time.

The improved US Dollar (USD) is bolstering the USD/CAD pair, possibly due to prevailing risk-off sentiment in the market ahead of the release of the preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized data from the United States scheduled for Wednesday. However, market expectations anticipate that the US GDP will remain steady at 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) officials have signaled caution regarding any rapid reductions in interest rates, resulting in a reduced likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming meetings. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of rate cuts in March has decreased to 1.0%, while the likelihood of cuts in May and June stands at 21% and 49.8%, respectively.

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Italy Business Confidence registered at 87.3, below expectations (88.7) in February
Italy Business Confidence registered at 87.3, below expectations (88.7) in February

Italy Business Confidence registered at 87.3, below expectations (88.7) in February

374674   February 28, 2024 17:05   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

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GBP/USD Forecast: Sellers look to retain control as Pound Sterling falls below key support

GBP/USD Forecast: Sellers look to retain control as Pound Sterling falls below key support

374672   February 28, 2024 17:05   FXStreet   Market News  


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  • GBP/USD came under pressure and declined below 1.2650.
  • The technical outlook points to a buildup of bearish momentum.
  • The USD could preserve its strength in case mood continues to sour.

GBP/USD lost its traction and dropped below 1.2650 early Wednesday following Tuesday’s choppy action. The pair’s technical picture highlights a bearish tilt in the short term. 

The US Dollar (USD) found a foothold in the second half of the day on Tuesday as US Treasury bond yields edged higher and Wall Street’s main indexes failed to gather bullish momentum.

US stock index futures are down between 0.2% and 0.4% early Wednesday and the UK’s FTSE 100 Index is losing 0.3% in the early trade, highlighting a cautious market stance midweek. If US stocks push lower after the opening bell, the USD could benefit from risk-aversion and weigh on GBP/USD.

Pound Sterling price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Pound Sterling (GBP) against listed major currencies today. Pound Sterling was the weakest against the US Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.32% 0.37% 0.32% 0.68% 0.19% 1.06% 0.21%
EUR -0.29%   0.08% 0.01% 0.39% -0.13% 0.77% -0.10%
GBP -0.37% -0.07%   -0.06% 0.30% -0.19% 0.69% -0.19%
CAD -0.32% -0.04% 0.06%   0.36% -0.13% 0.75% -0.09%
AUD -0.70% -0.39% -0.32% -0.38%   -0.51% 0.38% -0.48%
JPY -0.19% 0.10% 0.17% 0.12% 0.52%   0.87% 0.02%
NZD -1.08% -0.77% -0.69% -0.76% -0.39% -0.89%   -0.86%
CHF -0.21% 0.11% 0.16% 0.10% 0.49% -0.02% 0.85%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

The US economic docket will feature the second estimate of the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter later in the day. Markets don’t expect a revision to the 3.3% growth announced in the initial estimate. While a downward revision could have a short-lasting negative impact on the USD’s valuation, investors are unlikely to reconsider Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook based on this data alone.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets fully price in a no change in the policy rate in March and see an 85% probability for another hold in May.

Later in the American session, several Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for January.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart dropped below 50 and GBP/USD broke below the ascending trend line and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting a buildup of bearish momentum.

1.2620 (100-period SMA) aligns as first support before 1.2600 (static level, psychological level) and 1.2540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the long-term uptrend). On the upside, 1.2660-1.2650 (200-period SMA, ascending trend line, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the long-term uptrend) aligns as strong resistance area before 1.2700 (psychological level, static level).

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Italy Consumer Confidence above expectations (96.9) in February: Actual (97)
Italy Consumer Confidence above expectations (96.9) in February: Actual (97)

Italy Consumer Confidence above expectations (96.9) in February: Actual (97)

374670   February 28, 2024 17:02   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

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Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -19.5 to 10.2 in February
Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -19.5 to 10.2 in February

Switzerland ZEW Survey – Expectations rose from previous -19.5 to 10.2 in February

374669   February 28, 2024 17:02   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

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USD momentum should continue – ING
USD momentum should continue – ING

USD momentum should continue – ING

374668   February 28, 2024 16:49   FXStreet   Market News  


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The US Dollar moves decisively higher early Wednesday. Economists at ING analyze Greenback’s outlook.

Evidence of resilient inflation in the PCE will offer more support to USD into the end of the week

Today, along with January’s wholesale inventory data, we’ll see the second release of 4Q GDP in the US, which includes the personal consumption and PCE components. Expectations are for confirmation of strong 3.3% quarter-on-quarter annualised growth as per the advanced release. Personal consumption may be revised mildly lower and core PCE should be confirmed at 2.0% QoQ. 

Thursday’s PCE numbers for January are much more relevant for markets, and consensus is now aligned for a 0.4% month-on-month core print – even though the distribution of economists’ expectations is skewed to the downside.

We remain of the view that evidence of resilient inflation in the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation will offer more support to the Dollar into the end of the week.

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Stock Market Today: Nifty and Sensex slide, dragged by auto stocks
Stock Market Today: Nifty and Sensex slide, dragged by auto stocks

Stock Market Today: Nifty and Sensex slide, dragged by auto stocks

374667   February 28, 2024 16:33   FXStreet   Market News  


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  • India’s Nifty and Sensex keep falling after opening with modest gains on Wednesday.
  • Nifty and Sensex lose over half a percent, undermined by steep losses in the auto sector stocks.
  • Wednesday’s US GDP revision eyed ahead of Thursday’s US PCE inflation, India’s Q3 GDP data.

The Sensex 30 and Nifty 50, India’s key benchmark indices, keep pushing lower after opening with slight gains on Wednesday.

Global markets turned cautious, in the face of a renewed downside in Chinese stocks and nervousness in the run-up to a fresh batch of US economic data.

Indian traders remain on edge ahead of India’s third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and the expiry of monthly derivatives contracts due later this week.

Also, of note remains the top-tier US economic news, including the second estimate of the GDP report on Wednesday.

At the time of writing, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex 30 lose about 0.80% on the day to trade at 22,021.80 and 72,577.86 respectively.

Stock market news

  • The top gainers on Nifty include Infosys, HDFC Life Insurance, SBI Life Insurance and Hindustan Unilever. Meanwhile, the main laggards are Apollo Hospital, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Auto, Powergrid and Maruti.
  • Shares of Vodafone Idea tumbled roughly 14% on Wednesday after the company’s board decided to raise around Rs 45,000 crore through a combination of equity and debt for rolling out the 4G network.
  • Patanjali Foods shares tanked 5% after the Supreme Court issued a contempt notice to Patanji Ayurved’s Baba Ramdev and Acharya Balakrishna for publishing advertisements of products in violation of the Drugs and Magic Remedies (Objectionable Advertisements) Act, 1954.
  • The NSE’s Index Maintenance Sub-Committee is scheduled to meet on Wednesday, after market hours to review the constituents of various indices of the Nifty.
  • Reliance Capital set to be delisted from the bourses following its acquisition by the Hinduja Group entity.
  • Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth INR1,509.16 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.
  • The third term of the Narendra Modi government will see transformative reforms in sectors such as digital infrastructure, space, artificial intelligence, specialized warehousing, agriculture and tourism, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday.
  • The US stock markets closed mixed on Tuesday, as markets weighed a 6.1% slump in the US Durable Goods Orders data and a dip in the CB Consumer Confidence index.
  • Wednesday’s US GDP revision and personal spending data will be closely eyed before the key US PCE inflation data and India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data due on Thursday.
  • Markets are currently pricing in just about a 20% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could begin easing rates in May, much lower than an over 90% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. For the June meeting, the probability for a rate cut now stands at about 60%, down from 70% seen a few days ago.

Sensex FAQs

The Sensex is a name for one of India’s most closely monitored stock indexes. The term was coined in the 1980s by analyst Deepak Mohoni by mashing the words sensitive and index together. The index plots a weighted average of the share price of 30 of the most established stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Each corporation’s weighting is based on its “free-float capitalization”, or the value of all its shares readily available for trading.

Given it is a composite, the value of the Sensex is first and foremost dependent on the performance of its constituent companies as revealed in their quarterly and annual results. Government policies are another factor. In 2016 the government decided to phase out high value currency notes, for example, and certain companies saw their share price fall as a result. When the government decided to cut corporation tax in 2019, meanwhile, the Sensex gained a boost. Other factors include the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of India, since that dictates the cost of borrowing, climate change, pandemics and natural disasters

The Sensex started life on April 1 1979 at a base level of 100. It reached its highest recorded level so far, at 73,328, on Monday, January 15, 2024 (this is being written in Feb 2024). The Index closed above the 10,000 mark for the first time on February 7, 2006. On March 13, 2014 the Sensex closed higher than Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index to become the major Asian stock index with the highest value. The index’s biggest gain in a single day occurred on April 7, 2020, when it rose 2,476 points; its deepest single-day loss occurred on January 21, 2008, when it plunged 1,408 points due the US subprime crisis.

Major companies within the Sensex include Reliance Industries Ltd, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ITC Ltd, Bharti Airtel Ltd, Tata Steel, HCL Technologies, Infosys, State Bank of India, Sun Pharma, Tata Consultancy Services and Tech Mahindra.

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XRP surges to $0.58 amid SEC’s bid for delay in Ripple lawsuit

XRP surges to $0.58 amid SEC’s bid for delay in Ripple lawsuit

374665   February 28, 2024 16:29   FXStreet   Market News  


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  • XRP price climbed to $0.58, inching closer to $0.60 target on Wednesday. 
  • The SEC has requested a change to the remedies briefing deadlines in its lawsuit against Ripple. 
  • Ripple’s deadline to file an opposition brief could be extended to April 22, 2024. 

XRP price rallied on Wednesday in response to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) push to delay the remedies briefing deadline in its lawsuit against the payment remittance firm. 

The next key date for the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit, following the delay requested by the SEC is April 22, 2024. 

Also read: XRP price wipes out losses, Ripple plans blockchain roadmap reveal for 2024

Daily Digest Market Movers: Ripple lawsuit faces further delay

  • The SEC has revealed plans to delay the remedies briefing deadlines in its lawsuit against Ripple. 
  • Prior to the SEC’s request, Ripple had asked for an extension of the deadline for the discovery phase, in order to prepare the documents required by the regulator. 
  • The SEC’s push for delay implies that the regulator’s opening brief deadline will be extended to March 22, 2024 while Ripple’s deadline to file its opposition brief will be extended to April 22, 2024. 
  • The regulator’s deadline to file a reply to Ripple’s opposition brief will be extended to May 6, 2024. 
  • While the SEC’s bid for delay prolongs the legal battle between the payment remittance firm and the agency, it has likely catalyzed gains in XRPLedger’s native token, XRP. 
  • XRP price climbed on Wednesday, inching closer to its $0.60 target. 

Technical Analysis: XRP price could hit $0.60 target in its uptrend 

XRP price climbed to $0.58 on Wednesday. The altcoin is rallying closer to its $0.60 target. Bitcoin price sustained above the $57,000 level on Wednesday and the SEC bid to delay the remedies brief filing in the lawsuit against Ripple. These two factors are likely catalyzing XRP price gains. 

XRP price  is likely to rally towards its $0.6405 target, the 2024 high for the altcoin. In its uptrend XRP price faces resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the 2024 peak, at $0.6073. A successful break past this level could push XRP towards a new yearly high. 

The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) indicator, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) support XRP price gains and show that the uptrend is intact. 

XRP

XRP/USDT 1-day chart 

A daily candlestick close below the 50% retracement at $0.5629 could invalidate the bullish thesis for XRP and send the altcoin to support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.5446. 

SEC vs Ripple lawsuit FAQs

It depends on the transaction, according to a court ruling released on July 14:

For institutional investors or over-the-counter sales, XRP is a security.
For retail investors who bought the token via programmatic sales on exchanges, on-demand liquidity services and other platforms, XRP is not a security.

The United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple and its executives of raising more than $1.3 billion through an unregistered asset offering of the XRP token.

While the judge ruled that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, sales of XRP tokens to institutional investors are indeed investment contracts. In this last case, Ripple did breach the US securities law and will need to keep litigating over the around $729 million it received under written contracts.

The ruling offers a partial win for both Ripple and the SEC, depending on what one looks at.

Ripple gets a big win over the fact that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, and this could bode well for the broader crypto sector as most of the assets eyed by the SEC’s crackdown are handled by decentralized entities that sold their tokens mostly to retail investors via exchange platforms, experts say.

Still, the ruling doesn’t help much to answer the key question of what makes a digital asset a security, so it isn’t clear yet if this lawsuit will set precedent for other open cases that affect dozens of digital assets. Topics such as which is the right degree of decentralization to avoid the “security” label or where to draw the line between institutional and programmatic sales are likely to persist.

The SEC has stepped up its enforcement actions toward the blockchain and digital assets industry, filing charges against platforms such as Coinbase or Binance for allegedly violating the US Securities law. The SEC claims that the majority of crypto assets are securities and thus subject to strict regulation.

While defendants can use parts of Ripple’s ruling in their favor, the SEC can also find reasons in it to keep its current strategy of regulation by enforcement.

The court decision is a partial summary judgment. The ruling can be appealed once a final judgment is issued or if the judge allows it before then. The case is in a pretrial phase, in which both Ripple and the SEC still have the chance to settle.


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