The troy ounce of the precious metal fluctuated in a relatively tight range throughout the week and closed with a gain of $10 at $1,950.
$1,925, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the uptrend that started in late March and ended in early August, has been tested numerous times in the past few weeks and seems to be holding bears in check. However, the descending triangle, which is a bearish pattern, that can be seen on the daily chart is using that static support area as its bottom. Additionally, the 50-day SMA is staying relatively close to that level, confirming its significance. With a daily close below $1,925, XAU/USD could extend its slide toward $1,900(psychological level/ Aug. 26 low) and $1,860 (Aug. 12 low).
On the upside, the near-term outlook could turn bullish with a decisive break through $2,000 (psychological level). Ahead of that level, $1,975 (Sep. 16 high) could be seen as an interim resistance.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) climbed higher toward $400 on Thursday but lost its traction and closed in the negative territory on Friday. On Saturday, the modest bearish pressure on ETH/USD remains intact and the pair was last seen losing 1.45% on a daily basis at $380.
An ascending triangle seems to have formed on Ethereum’s daily chart. This formation is usually considered to be a bullish pattern when it’s seen within an active uptrend. Although this is not the case, the resistance line of the triangle seems to be coinciding with 50% Fibonacci retracement of early-September drop and the 50-day SMA, suggesting a break above that level could open the door for additional gains. $420 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be seen as the next target.
On the downside, the initial support aligns at $375 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement/ascending line of the triangle). If Ethereum retreats to this area and confirms it as a support, it’s likely to retest $400 in the near-term. Below $375 the next support could be seen at $350 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed the previous trading days virtually unchanged near $11,000 and doesn’t seem to be looking to make a decisive move in either direction on Tursday. As of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.35% on a daily basis at $10,900.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator continues to move sideways near 50, confirming the indecisiveness of Bitcoin. On the upside, $11,200 area, where the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of July 21-August 18 uptrend and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the early-September drop is located, aligns as a critical hurdle. The 50-day SMA is also fortifying this resistance. With a daily close above this area, the next target on the upside could be seen at $11,700 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of July 21-August 18 uptrend) and $12,000 (psychological level).
On the other hand, the initial support is located at $10,700 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the early-September drop/20-day SMA) ahead of $10,400 (100-day SMA). Below those levels, $10,000 (psychological level) is defending $9,800, the static level that helped Bitcoin reverse its direction after the sharp selloff witnessed during the first week of September.
VeChain Foundation took a huge step towards mainstream adoption by joining the China Animal Health And Food Safety Alliance as a council member. In the process, it became the only blockchain technology provider in the alliance and will be offering technical and infrastructure support. The alliance includes companies like Starbucks, McDonald’s, and Walmart.
VeChain stated that they would be using their platform to create a farm-to-table traceability system” across China by building upon the existing Food Trust system.
All enterprise members of the alliance will be capable of logging key processes of food products onto the blockchain in an immutable and secured way, bridging trust between consumers and the enterprises. Traceability can start from cultivation, processing, packaging, logistics, to retail and more.
VET/USD strung together five straight bullish days before fumbling at the $0.0145 resistance line. Since then, the price has dropped to $0.014. We don’t think that the price is going to fall below the bullish flag formation. It will probably bounce up from the $0.0135 support line and jump to the flag’s upper line. The MACD shows that the market momentum is still bullish, so a break above the flag is expected.
The new active addresses on VET have been on a steady decline, which has caused the price to go down. However, becoming a council member will attract more users, which will improve the price in the long-term.
Social volume is another helpful metric that can help predict positive price movement. Usually, a spike in social volume causes a spike in the price. Whether the move is upwards or downwards depends solely on whether the story being circulated is positive or negative. There has been a reasonable spike on social volume, which has prompted the price goes up.Full Article
BTC/USD is trending in an ascending triangle formation as price consolidates below $11,000. The price has been trending horizontally for the last three days, as evidenced by the 20-day Bollinger band’s constriction, which indicates lower volatility. Currently, BTC is hugging along the $10,960 resistance line.
If the price breaks above that, they will want to go up to the $11,350 resistance line. The RSI is trending along the neutral zone so it is still anybody’s ball game.
The daily confluence detector makes for pretty much the same reading. Currently, the price is stifled under the $10,960 resistance line, which has the one-week Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. Up next, we have another strong resistance at $11,300, which has the one-day SMA 50, daily Pivot Point one resistance-three, weekly Pivot Point one resistance-one and the one-month Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.
On the downside, we have a support level at $10,600, which has the Previous Month low and daily Pivot Point one support-three.
In a recent interview with Reuters, Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter and Square, said that Bitcoin is “probably the best” native currency of the Internet as it is consensus-driven and “built by everyone.”
The interview comes shortly after Dorsey’s Square invited other cryptocurrency companies to join an “‘alliance” that will pool patents and preserve its open-source spirit. The group is called “Cryptocurrency Open Patent Alliance” (COPA).
We believe there needs to be a global native currency for the internet. Just as everyone should be able to participate in the economy and have access to the same tools and services, so too should everyone be able to participate in cryptocurrencies and have access to its underlying innovation.
With many major firms filing and holding many patents, the number of US cryptocurrency and blockchain-related patents have doubled between 2016 and 2017. Regardless of whether it has patents or not, any digital asset company will be eligible to join COPA.
Dorsey has endorsed Bitcoin several times in the past few years. Earlier, he had also claimed that the coin could become the world’s sole currency by 2030. In the recent interview with Reuters, Dorsey said:
I think the internet wants a native currency and I think bitcoin is probably the best manifestation of that so far.
However, Dorsey thinks that there is still work to be done before Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies achieve mainstream adoption. According to him, “transaction times and efficiency” and ease of use need improvement.
We have to build bitcoin in such a way that it as intuitive, it’s as fast and it’s efficient as what exists today and goes beyond that too.
The open interest of Bitcoin is surging again, pointing to a potentially large price movement soon. The rise in BTC’s recent price volatility coincides with the imminent expiration of 77,000 BTC options contracts. Deribit data reveals that the BTC options open interest is hovering at around 134,000 contracts, indicating that a surge in volatility in October is becoming more likely.
Open interest is growing again, 134k $BTC contracts outstanding which is ~74% of total market. Next is CME with around 25k contracts outstanding. The biggest OI is held in the Sept ’20 expiry, a total ~77k of which ~59K is held at Deribit. pic.twitter.com/xgeWDaeVAg
— Deribit (@DeribitExchange) September 16, 2020
Whether this expected volatility will lead to a Bitcoin rejection or cause the bull market to resume remains unclear. If the flagship coin follows the previous post-halving cycle, it will likely achieve a new all-time high 15 months after the recent halving (mid-2021).
As the accumulation phase continues, BTC could remain in the $9000-$12,000 range in the near term. Once the September expiration occurs (occurs on the last Friday of every month), Bitcoin is likely to move in a particular direction. For now, the continuous rejection of $12,000 and $11,100 makes a longer consolidation phase probable.
A few traders believe that the recent Bitcoin rejection was a take-profit pullback. Technical analysts are anticipating a minor price drop in the near term. A pseudonymous trader is known as “Byzantine General” took to Twitter to share their thoughts.
BTC is consolidating in an ascending triangle pattern and is currently testing the $10,960 resistance line. The 20-day Bollinger jaw is constricting, which shows decreasing price volatility. Over the last three days, the bulls and bears have canceled each other out, so the RSI is hovering around the neutral zone. To understand BTC’s price movement, let’s check out the IOMAP.
BTC is sitting on top of a robust supply wall, so downside potential is limited. On the upside, the bulls have the space to move the price up to $11,600, before it meets a strong resistance level.
#1 Age Consumed
As per Santiment, there is a massive spike in the age consumed metric on 16th September. Usually, a spike results in a sudden price movement (could be either positive or negative). However, going by the IOMAP, we can guess that the movement is going to be positive.
#2 Dev Activity
Over the last 10 days, there has been a sharp drop in on-chain development activity. This is usually a bearish sign. However, Bitcoin isn’t as dependent on on-chain activity as Ethereum.
The number of pending transactions on Ethereum surged shortly after the Uniswap exchange announced its UNI token launch. The decentralized exchange revealed that it launched the UNI governance token, with one billion coins distributed over the next four years.
Uniswap permitted historical users of the protocol and its liquidity providers to claim 400 UNI tokens per each address used. An excerpt from Uniswap’s announcement reads:
15% of UNI [150,000,000 UNI] can immediately be claimed by historical liquidity providers, users, and SOCKS redeemers/holders based on a snapshot ending Sept. 1, 2020, at 12:00 am UTC.
As users started to claim their tokens, the number of pending transactions on Ethereum per minute surged from around 160,000 to over 210,000.
According to a CoinDesk report, just three hours after the token claims began, more than 18,000 transactions were sent to the UNI governance token’s smart contract address. This spike in the number of transactions sent to the smart contract address led to increased ether gas fees.
As per Etherscan, the UNI token distribution address saw users pay $1.4 million in ETH as gas fees when transacting to it. This accounted for more than 8% of the gas used in the last 24-hour period.
ETH is also consolidating in an ascending triangle formation. After encountering resistance at the $390 line, the price has gone down slightly over the last two days. However, despite the bearish movement, the TD sequential tells us that we are in the early stages of an upward trend. If the bulls carry their momentum, they should break past the $390 resistance line and go all the way up to the $410 resistance line.
Ethereum’s IOMAP shows a lack of substantial resistance levels upfront, so there is tremendous upside potential. On the downside, it is sitting on top of a strong supply wall, so downward movement is limited.
#1 New Addresses
Over the last three months, the number of new addresses has pretty much remained consistent. This is a good sign.
#2 ETH Velocity
Ethereum’s token velocity has drastically decreased mainly because of Uniswap. Investors have locked up their ether in the Uniswap contracts, which has reduced the token velocity. This is also a bullish sign.
A well-known cryptocurrency investor who goes by the name “Crypto Bitlord” has allegedly sold all their XRP holdings. The investor claimed that the cryptocurrency is a “confirmed scam.” Ripple, the company behind XRP, is laden with many controversies. The firm presently holds more than half of the total XRP supply. This, according to most observers, is the reason why the price has been moving horizontally. Ripple has also been accused of intentionally suppressing XRP’s price.
Crypto Bitlord is popularly known for starting a petition back in 2019, asking Ripple to stop dumping on investors. In a recent tweet, they called XRP a “confirmed scam.” They explained that they realized this after watching Ripple dump on the market for several years.
A CONFIRMED SCAM
After years of watching them dump on us and delivering nothing to the token but shit I’ve cracked the code.
THEY DONT NEED $XRP
If you read this, dump it
-I’m selling every last cent
FUCK BRAD AND FUCK RIPPLE
— Crypto Bitlord (@Crypto_Bitlord) September 15, 2020
Notably, some Twitter users shared the same sentiment as Crypto Bitlord.
I could have saved you the effort. Dumping a billion XRP every month!? Brad & his minions owning the majority of tokens? Certainly red flags up the wazoo
— D Farmakis (@dmonee14) September 15, 2020
XRP/USD has been trending in a bearish flag pattern and has encountered resistance at the SMA 20 curve. As of now, the price is consolidating under the $0.25-level, before it goes through a bearish breakout. If the price does break below the flag, it will probably drop down till the $0.24 support line. However, it is highly doubtful if XRP will actually go through such a sharp movement.
The age consumed metric from Santiment shows a lack of spikes. Hence, XRP is probably going to keep on moving sluggishly.
The Neo Global Development (NGD) has announced a new version of the core Neo2 node client, neo-cli v2.12.0. This update increases the overall block size limit and improves overall network health. The GAS limit has gone up from 10 to 50, while the max number of transactions per block has dropped from 500 to 200.
NEO buyers have stayed in control for three straight days, charting the three green soldiers pattern as it went up from $20.35 to $25.15. The price reached intraday highs of $25.90, charting a 52-week high. In the process, the price has crossed the upper curve of the 20-day Bollinger Band and the relative strength index has crept into the overbought zone. Both these indicators show that the price is presently overvalued and will face bearish correction soon. The immediate target for correction will be $24.50, bringing the price back inside the 20-day Bollinger Band.
The 4-hour chart has formed the head and shoulders pattern and then broke above the upward trending line. The RSI is hovering along the very edge of the overbought zone, prompting a bearish correction, as the two latest candlesticks have formed a bearish engulfing pattern.
As per Santiment, the dev activity has recently increased due to the upcoming Flamingo. As expected, the price has reacted very positively to this increased dev activity.
Gold has had another tough week as the Fed disappointed the market with no real additional information about the new policies. There was one thing of now as the dot plot is now projecting the next rate rise could be in 2023. There were some outside calls for more stimulus to be added but Fed Chair Powell once again called for more help from the government in the form of fiscal stimulus.
Looking at the chart, the key feature is the marks of lower highs and higher lows. This sideways action has been going on for a month now. The indicators are also firmly planted in the midsection. The MACD histogram and signal lines are near zero and the Relative Strength Index indicator is near 50.
The trend is still very much an uptrend and if the key previous wave highs get broken then the uptrend could be back on. USD 1973.64 per troy ounce is the next level to watch on the upside and then beyond that, USD 2k is next.
Overall, the market is looking to see if the recent dollar bear trend is reversing. The risk enviroment has been precarious, stocks have been moving lower toward the end of the week. Next week the PMI’s are due to be released and this could give us further clarity about the state of the global economy. Another highlight will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testify before a Senate committee. They will probably talk about the need for fiscal stimulus but you never know.
BTC/USD is trading at $10,851 but attempted to crack $11,000 again unsuccessfully. The bearish rejection is not too strong and the price can still establish a daily bull flag.
ETH/USD established a new higher high but also got rejected from $394. It is currently bouncing off the 12-EMA on the daily chart.
XRP/USD slipped below $0.25 following the rejection from the 26-EMA at $0.255. Bulls will now look to set a new higher low and possibly continue with the short-term uptrend.
NEM, the enterprise-focused blockchain-based platform announced the launch of a new blockchain called SYMBOL. The mainnet will be launched by December 2020 and all XEM holders have the ability to obtain SYMBOL (XYM) at a 1:1 rate. Following this announcement, Binance posted a new trading competition with a $50,000 prize in XEM.
The competition is set to start today at 0:00 AM on the XEM/BTC and XEM/ETH trading pairs with a $10,000 prize for the first place.
Kraken, after getting approval to become the first U.S. bank has now opened its new official Japanese exchange.
With the launch of this service, it has become possible to provide global services under the world’s highest level of security that Kraken is proud of. When it comes to security, Kraken has the strictest and most advanced management system not only in Japan but also in the world.
SPExchange has stated that it will be released on Q1 of 2021. The new exchange intends to provide customers with a free listing services kind of like building a new ‘Amazon in the blockchain industry’.
SPExchange CMO, Adam Nguyen said:
With our premium services, we are here to shape emerging technology ideas, support and motivate blockchain startups to thrive by connecting them with the global blockchain community
Blockchain is the tech. Bitcoin is merely the first mainstream manifestation of its potential.
– Marc KenigsbergFull Article
Maker has been one of the most affected coins after the last crypto crash, losing around 50% of its value in practically one month. MKR is currently ranked 37th with a market capitalization of $500 million.
There is a massive downtrend formed by MKR on the daily chart. Bulls tried to breakout on September 17 after a notable spike towards $556 from a low of $468; however, the price got quickly rejected dropping to $500 within minutes. MKR has formed a resistance level at around $560, and it’s also facing the 12-EMA at $510 as resistance.
The most notable development for MKR is a spike in exchange inflow registered on Glassnode. This doesn’t necessarily mean a sell-off is closeby; however, a significant decline in whales further strengthens the theory that MKR faces a lot of selling pressure. Whales holding at least 10,000 coins dropped from 16 to 10. Similarly, whales with at least 1,000 coins dropped from 82 to 76.
Not everything is lost for MKR bulls as the 4-hour chart is slowly changing in favor of them. The price has established several higher lows and the MACD flipped bullish hours ago.
According to the IOMAP chart, MKR has a ton of support at $468, which means that a bearish breakout of this level would be notable. On the flip side, if the bulls can defend this price and bounce back up, resistance levels are significantly smaller than support.
Investors need to look out for the $468 support and $510 resistance levels. Any breakout below or above this range will be crucial for the short-term future of MKR.Full Article
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Another week is coming to an end, and the FX market seems unable to find its way. The EUR/USD pair is poised to finish it little changed around 1.1850, its comfort zone pretty much since September started.
Several central banks had monetary policy meetings these days, the US Federal Reserve included but were far from being shining stars. In fact, the impact of the pandemic on economies, and the uncertainty on what’s to come in that front, have policymakers as clueless as speculators.
The US Federal Reserve revised its near-term economic outlook and now sees GDP down 3.7% this year, much better than the 6.5% drop forecasted in June. The unemployment rate is now seen at 7.6% from 9.3% previously. Yet, at the same time, policymakers pledged to keep rates near zero at least until 2023. The central bank added a year to its economic projections, with chief Powell noting that this “powerful” forward guidance will provide support for the economy.
Even further, the central bank indicated that the current levels of QE are appropriate. Economists were expecting the Fed to announce increased bond-buying, but instead, the Fed said that more fiscal support is needed, rolling the ball into the Congress’ side of the court.
And the Fed was not the only central bank that held back. Neither the BOJ nor the BOE introduced changes to their monetary policy, although the last one made some noise by mentioning negative rates. Still, and remembering the ECB’s announcement a couple of weeks ago and also RBA’s Lowe, it seems the subtle intention of central bankers these days is to keep currencies from appreciating, which may hurt the already battered economies.
Within the pandemic context, central bankers have taken extraordinary measures. The crisis remains, and policymakers are reluctant to extend massive easing. It seems they are saving the last bullets should the ongoing tepid recovery suffers a setback.
Macroeconomic figures released these days mostly indicate that, while progress is being made, economic activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels. To mention some of the most relevant numbers, European Industrial Production improved in July, but when compared to a year earlier, it was down 7.7%. The Union’s inflation contracted 0.2% YoY in August. In the US, August Retail Sales posted a modest 0.6% advance, although the core reading printed at -0.1%, below the 0.5% expected.
The focus next week will be on the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who will testify before Congress. Given the recent central bank’s meeting, it seems quite unlikely that his words could impact currencies. Also, Markit will publish the September preliminary estimates of its PMIs for the US and the EU. Market’s expectations are of similar readings to August final ones. By the end of the week, the US Census Bureau will publish August Durable Goods Orders, seen up in the month by 1.5%.
The EUR/USD pair is ending a second consecutive week unchanged in the 1.1840/50 price zone. However, it posted yet another lower low of 1.1736 and a lower high at 1.1900. In the weekly chart, the pair continues to develop far above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA maintaining its bullish slope above the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, stabilized well into positive ground, indicating that there’s no interest on the greenback.
In the daily chart, the pair retains its neutral stance. It keeps hovering around a directionless 20 DMA, while the larger ones keep heading north far below it. The Momentum indicator turned marginally lower around its midline while the RSI indicator stands flat around 54.
An immediate support level is 1.1790, followed by 1.1695, August monthly low. However, the greenback remains out of the market favor and a decline towards the latter seems unlikely. If it happens, strong buying interest will likely reappear around it. Resistances, on the other hand, come at 1.1915 and 1.2011, this year high.
According to the FXStreet Forecast Poll, the pair has reached an interim top. Bears are a majority in the weekly and monthly views, with bulls taking the lead by little in the 3-month perspective. Anyway, and on average, the pair is seen holding around the current level.
The Overview chart, however, indicates that higher targets are now being considered, reflecting decreasing interest on the greenback. The weekly moving average is heading marginally lower, but the monthly and quarterly ones offer neutral-to-bullish slopes. Interestingly, and despite the ECB put a virtual cap on 1.20, most targets in the longer-term perspective accumulate around it, with higher possible objectives expected as time goes by.