The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats from 1.2480 in Thursday’s early New York session. The GBP/USD pair falls back as the US Dollar recovers amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for a longer period.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against six major currencies, rises sharply from 105.75. The near-term demand for the US Dollar remains intact as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers keep emphasising the need for interest rates to remain higher for a longer period until they get convinced that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target.
Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will delay rate cuts until the November meeting rose as the United Kingdom inflation for March decelerated slower than expected. Like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the BoE is also expected to delay rate cuts, which has faded potential fears of policy divergence between them.
The major catalyst that forced traders to pare BoE early rate cuts is the slow progress in inflation declining to the 2% target due to steady wage growth. The labor market report for the quarter ending February showed that Average Earnings including bonuses grew steadily by 5.6%, higher than expectations of 5.5%.
For inflation to return to the 2% target, the annual wage growth excluding bonuses should be close to 3.5%. Higher wage growth feeds inflationary pressures as businesses pass on labor cost to end consumers. Also, households with higher income for disposal ramp up overall demand in the economy.
The Pound Sterling aims for firm footing after discovering strong buying interest near the round-level support of 1.2400. The GBP/USD pair rebounds from 1.2400 and focuses on recapturing the psychological resistance of 1.2500.
The near-term outlook of the Cable remains bearish due to a breakdown of the Head and Shoulder pattern and a declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2560.
In addition, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, suggesting momentum leaned to the downside.