Bitcoin (BTC) price is holding well above the $60,000 threshold, but could lose it after the halving as markets cash in on the gains. The countdown is intensifying with data showing only a few blocks left, expected to be completed soon.
Also Read: All eyes on Bitcoin price as CNN calls halving the ‘World Cup for BTC’
Bitcoin halving is here, an event expected to raise the curtain on the next market cycle. There has been a lot of turbulence in the market of late. Events such as flows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel have sent traders into their shells. However, there could be some relief in the market after Iranian officials indicated there are no plans to retaliate against an Israeli strike on Friday.
JUST IN: Iranian officials say there are no plans for retaliating against Israeli strike – Reuters ️
— Radar (@RadarHits) April 19, 2024
With markets recording a slowdown in BTC acquisitions, it is imperative to observe that Bitcoin has managed to successfully close above the $60,000 psychological level for 50 successive days. More closely, it has been able to protect the range low of its re-accumulation range for two consecutive weeks.
Historically, Bitcoin price slows down in its upside momentum around the halving, often retracing, but momentum decisively picks back up in the months after the event. Analysts are saying the halving has already been priced in, an assumption that begs the question: When could Bitcoin peak in this bull market?
Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of $73,777 approximately 260 days ahead of schedule compared to historical norms. The past few weeks, however, pre-halving retraces have dominated. Analysts from Rekt Capital speculate that BTC price could perform a bull market top 266-315 days after it reclaims its peak.
When Could Bitcoin Peak In This Bull Market?
Historically, Bitcoin has peaked in its Bull Market 518-546 days after the Halving (Chart 1)
This is how typical Bitcoin Halving Cycles have progressed
So if history repeats…
Next Bull Market peak may occur 518-546 days… pic.twitter.com/QXZUS7ZyjU
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 19, 2024
The opposite seems likely for altcoins, with analysts anticipating an explosive run in their market capitalization after the BTC halving.
Meanwhile, the “danger zone” for Bitcoin price, where pre-halving retraces tend to occur, appears to have completed successfully after two 18% pullbacks.
The market remains predominantly bullish with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above the ‘50’ mean level. Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are in positive territory, tilting the odds to the upside.
If the RSI holds above 50, Bitcoin price could continue north. A candlestick close above $70,000 would set the tone for an extension to the $73,777 peak, or in a highly bullish case, offer BTC a chance for a new all-time high.
BTC/USDT 3-day chart
However, with the DXY compare indicator climbing, Bitcoin price could be primed for a correction, seeing as the two trajectories have maintained a countercurrent relationship. This thesis is supported by the MACD, which has crossed below the orange band of the signal line, a crossover interpreted as the beginning of a bearish cycle.
If the $59,530 support breaks, Bitcoin price could roll over to the $50,420 level before a possible inflection.