AUD/JPY continues its winning streak for the sixth successive session on Monday, hovering around 104.50, a level not seen since April 2013. The persistent upward momentum of the AUD/JPY pair is driven by the increasing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), following the release of last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.
The unexpected surge in inflation figures prompted economists to revise their earlier forecasts significantly. Warren Hogan, chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, told “The Australian Financial Review” his anticipation of the central bank raising the cash rate three times this year, reaching 5.1%, with the first hike likely in August. Investors now look forward to Retail Sales for March on Tuesday, which gauges Australia’s consumer spending. It has a significant bearing on Australia’s inflation and GDP.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) tumbled to new multi-decade lows following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to maintain policy settings unchanged on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s rate outlook, indications of cooling inflation in Japan, and a generally optimistic sentiment in equity markets are pivotal factors eroding the safe-haven appeal of the JPY.
Furthermore, expectations for a prolonged wide interest rate differential between Japan and the other countries imply that the JPY’s trajectory is biased towards further decline. With Japanese markets closed on Monday for Showa Day, market dynamics may see limited shifts in the absence of trading activity.
The AUD/JPY trades around 104.50 on Monday, surpassing the upper boundary of the daily ascending channel. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending above the 50-level, strengthening the bullish sentiment. The immediate resistance is seen at the psychological level of 105.00. A breakthrough above this level could support the cross to test the highest level of 105.43 recorded in April 2013.
On the downside, immediate support for the AUD/JPY pair could be found at the psychological level of 104.00. If the pair breaches below this level, the AUD/JPY cross could lead to a further decline toward the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 101.59, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a major level of 101.50.
The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.19% | -0.24% | -0.14% | -0.61% | -0.50% | -0.51% | -0.27% | |
EUR | 0.19% | -0.05% | 0.05% | -0.39% | -0.30% | -0.29% | -0.08% | |
GBP | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.10% | -0.34% | -0.25% | -0.27% | -0.02% | |
CAD | 0.14% | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.45% | -0.35% | -0.37% | -0.18% | |
AUD | 0.61% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.34% | |
JPY | 0.51% | 0.17% | 0.44% | 0.22% | -0.22% | -0.12% | 0.16% | |
NZD | 0.49% | 0.29% | 0.24% | 0.35% | -0.12% | -0.21% | 0.22% | |
CHF | 0.28% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.14% | -0.29% | -0.16% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.