EUR/USD Price Analysis: Manages to hold above 200-hour SMA ahead of Eurozone CPI, FOMC

• EUR/USD comes under renewed selling pressure amid a modest pickup in USD demand.
• The technical setup warrants caution for bearish traders ahead of the key Eurozone CPI.
• The market focus will then shift to the FOMC policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday.

The EUR/USD pair meets with some supply during the Asian session on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s gains amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) buying. Spot prices, however, remain in a familiar range held over the past week or so and currently trade around the 1.0700 round-figure mark.

Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations help revive the US Dollar (USD) demand. This, along with bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in June, turn out to be key factors exerting some downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the Eurozone consumer inflation figures on Tuesday and the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. 

From a technical perspective, any subsequent decline is more likely to find decent support near the 1.0690-1.0685 confluence, comprising the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and over a one-week-old ascending trend line. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and drag the EUR/USD pair towards last week’s swing low, around the 1.0625 region en route to the 1.0600 mark or the YTD trough touched earlier this month.

On the flip side, bulls need to wait for a sustained strength beyond the 1.0730-1.0740 supply zone before positioning for any further gains. The EUR/USD pair might then accelerate the positive move towards reclaiming the 1.0800 round figure before climbing to the 1.0835-1.0840 intermediate barrier and the monthly peak, around the 1.0885 region. This is followed by the 1.0900 mark, which if cleared will shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart