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US Dollar near Thursday’s low ahead of US Jobless data

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FXStreet in Market News 12 391548
May 23, 2024 20:51

content provided with permission by FXStreet

  • The US Dollar has entered a patch of volatility since the Fed Minutes release.
  • Markets will be chasing PMI’s from several countries throughout the day.
  • The US Dollar Index trades just below 105.00 and could snap above if US PMI surprises.

The US Dollar (USD) is in the red after in Asian trading being in the green when it had gained momentum after the release of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes overnight, which frightened markets after several concerns were communicated on inflation by Fed officials in the paper. Markets got scared and started to head into safe havens like the Greenback. Although Nvidia earnings pushed the Nasdaq higher, a general wave of Risk On was not rippling through markets where even the Chinese semiconductor index crashed 2% in the Asia-Pacific session. 

On the economic data front, a very packed agenda where markets can again revalue currencies next to each other with both European, United Kingdom’s and US Purchase Manager Index numbers for May. This will give traders a base of comparison and might see these currencies move against each other higher or lower. Besides that, weekly Jobless numbers and some Fed Activity indicators could add fuel to the fire. 

Daily digest market movers: Jobless data just around the corner

  • German Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) surprised with an upbeat release of 53.9 against 53.2 for April, where 53.5 was expected for May.  The move is particularly supportive for the Euro with Germany being labelled ‘the sick man in Europe’ these past few months.
  • French Services PMI stole a bit of the boost from Germany’s outperformance, because it fell back into contraction from April’s 51.3 to 49.4 against an expected 51.7 for May. 
  • The US data kicks off at 12:30 GMT:
    • Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April will be released. The March number was at 0.15.
    • The weekly Jobless Claims are due to be released:
      • Initial Jobless Claims expected to stay steady from 222,000 to 220,000.
      • Continuing Jobless Claims were last week at 1.794 million, with no forecast pencilled in.
  • The S&P Global preliminary PMI release for May is expected near 13:45 GMT:
    • Manufacturing PMI should remain stable at 50.
    • Services PMI should remain stable as well at 51.3.
    • The Composite should ease a touch from 51.3 in the final April’s reading to 51.1.
  • Near 14:00 GMT, New Home Sales are expected to ease a touch from 0.693 million to 0.680 million for April. 
  • The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity for May will come out at 15:00 GMT. The previous number was at -13, no consensus available. 
  • To close off this Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a Q&A session with students in a MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business near 19:00 GMT.
  • European equities are mildly in the green while US equity futures are advancing with the Nasdaq up 1% pre-market.
  • The CME Fedwatch Tool is pricing 95.8% for no change in the policy rate for June. September futures are now seeing a 49.7% chance for a 25-basis-points cut. 
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.42%, easing a touch.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Surge in volatility

The US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted to surge towards 105.00, though saw its rally stalling just ahead of the number. The move comes after markets got concerned when reading that several Fed members had issued concerns on current inflation levels in the recent Fed Minutes. Markets were disregarding the fact that these Minutes are already nearly a month old and in the meantime several data elements have proven that disinflation is back on track, which could mean that the DXY is set to ease further from here. 

On the upside, the DXY Index has broken two technical elements which were keeping price action in check on the topside. The first level was the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.78 and secondly that red descending trend line crossing at 104.79 on Wednesday . From now further up, the following levels to consider are 105.12 and 105.52. 

On the downside, the 100-day SMA around 104.25 is the last man supporting the decline. Once that level snaps, an air pocket is placed between 104.11 and 103.00. Should the US Dollar decline persist, the low of March at 102.35 and the low from December at 100.62 are levels to consider.  

Risk sentiment FAQs

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.