The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 27 May 2024

It looks like another volatile week for investors ahead, with a relatively full event schedule culminating in the Fed’s favorite inflation figure on Friday. We have several important tier 1 data releases scheduled across the trading sessions, along with numerous central bank speakers who could add some excitement to the proceedings.

Global stocks are still near historic levels, and the next couple of weeks could prove pivotal as investors closely monitor data updates to determine when key central banks might start easing.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It should be a relatively quiet start to the trading week, with bank holidays in the UK and the US likely dampening investor enthusiasm. Yen traders will be alert early in the day as BOK Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak in Tokyo. We may see some volatility in the Euro with the latest German Ifo data due during the European session, but most traders expect range-bound conditions for most of the day.

Focus will be on Australian markets at the Asian open with the release of the latest Retail Sales data. Later in the day, we will hear from SNB Chair Thomas Jordan in Tokyo, as well as FOMC members Bowman and Mester. There is little of note scheduled in the London session; however, we have the first major US data release of the week once New York opens, with the CB Consumer Confidence data.

Australian markets will once again be in the spotlight at the Asian open with the key CPI data due for release early in the day. The London open sees the return of UK traders after a long weekend, but focus will swiftly move to Germany with the Prelim CPI data update. There is little scheduled on the calendar in the New York session, and traders expect smoother trading conditions ahead of a busy last couple of trading days for the week.

There is little in the way of tier 1 data due out in the first two sessions of the day. However, we have another update from SNB’s Thomas Jordan, speaking this time in Seoul. The European session sees the release of the latest Swiss GDP numbers as well as the Spanish CPI data. We have three major US data prints due on Thursday shortly after the New York open: the Prelim Quarterly GDP data, the weekly unemployment claims numbers, and the Pending Home Sales update a couple of hours later.

Early focus will be on Japan during the Asian session with the latest Tokyo Core CPI numbers due out, but this will likely be superseded by key Chinese numbers later in the day, with the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data due. The main event of the day, and most likely the week, is scheduled for the New York session on Friday with the release of the Fed’s favored inflation data, the Core PCE Price Index. The Canadian GDP number will be released at the same time, though the major focus will be on the US number.

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