ECB Accounts: Increased confidence inflation would return to target over the medium term.

• Members expressed increased confidence that inflation would return to target over the medium term.
• Members attached a higher probability to the possibility that the trade shock would be inflationary beyond the short term.
• Increased confidence that inflation would return to target in line with the March baseline projections.
• This pointed to upside risks to inflation in the medium to long term.
• Uncertainty, the appreciation of the Euro and the decline in oil and gas prices, would further dampen the inflation outlook in the near term.
• A cut at the present meeting could be seen as frontloading.
• A few members noted that they could have felt comfortable with a 50 basis point rate cut.
• Market-based indicators pointed to a tightening of financial conditions.
• Wanted to avoid the perception that the neutral level of interest rates was the end point of the current cycle.
• Disinflation to dominate in short term due to Euro.
• Euro Area had built up some resistance to shocks.
• Euro seem to turn into safe-haven currency.
• Inflation was expected to hover close to the inflation target of 2% for the remainder of the year.

This is the equivalent of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. It’s not a market moving release and the data is stale by the time it gets released.

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This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.