USD/JPY climbs a full cent as the US economy keeps on rolling

The US dollar was beaten up yesterday but has rebounded nicely today, particularly USD/JPY. That pair is up more than a cent today, nearly recovering from yesterday’s decline.

The gains were helped along by a solid JOLTS report that showed job openings rebounding from the lowest since September. Comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic also plainly spelled out that the FOMC is in no rush to cut rates. The market is 85% priced for a September rate cut and fully priced for another one in December but it’s a firmly ‘wait and see’ stance through July, which is the only reasonably-visible part of the economy.

Tariffs are obviously a big concern but recent comments from banks and credit card executives on the consumer highlight that spending is healthy.

Geopolitically, there are worries about how Russia may retaliate to drone strikes and the Iran talks continue to grind on. There are hopes for US-China talks this week and an expectation that Trump and Xi will have a talk to clear the air.

Perhaps most salient in the trade war is some creeping optimism that the US might present deals where tariffs fall below 10%. It’s not clear if that is a floor or what is the basis for getting below that.

As for the USD/JPY chart, it has held the late- May low so far as it tries to form a larger bottom from 142.00. That’s the key zone to watch.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.