Japan faces growing pressure to tweak bond issuance strategy by July

Market expectations are building that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) may soon adjust its government bond issuance strategy—possibly as early as July—by shifting toward shorter maturities and cutting back on longer-term debt. The move is being considered as yields remain elevated and investor appetite for longer-dated bonds weakens, highlighted by Thursday’s 30-year auction, which saw the weakest demand since 2023:

• Japan 30-year bond auction bid-to-cover ratio 2.92 vs prior sale 3.07 & 12-month Avg 3.39

Analysts suggest the MOF is signaling a more forward-looking stance, especially after sending a questionnaire to market participants and scheduling a key meeting with primary dealers for June 20—shortly after the Bank of Japan reviews its own bond buying plans.

Bloomberg have collated some views:

• Resona Asset Management’s Takashi Fujiwara noted that hopes of a reduction supported recent auction results but warned that a smaller-than-expected cut—such as only ¥100 billion for super-long bonds—could trigger renewed selling pressure.
• Markets are eyeing a reduction of ¥300–450 billion per sale, with JPMorgan projecting monthly cuts of ¥250–450 billion starting in July.
• Saxo’s Charu Chanana cautioned that if the MOF fails to meet these expectations, yields could once again test their highs.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.