JP Morgan “estimate oil prices could surge to the $120-130/bbl” (Iran worst-case scenario)

JPMorgan in a note issued Thursday (US time)

• kept its base case oil forecast unchanged, expecting prices to stay in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel through 2025 and around $60 in 2026
• it warned however that under extreme geopolitical scenarios—particularly involving Iran—prices could double, potentially hitting $120–130 per barrel

This comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East:

• Trump said the U.S. is relocating personnel due to rising risks in the region and reaffirmed that Iran would not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon
• Iran continues to insists its nuclear program is peaceful

JPMorgan noted that current oil prices, hovering near $69 for Brent, already include a geopolitical risk premium of about $4 above their estimated fair value of $66. A worst-case scenario, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz or major retaliatory attacks, could significantly disrupt supply, particularly if Iran’s 2.1 million barrels per day in exports are impacted.

Adding to the tension, Iran’s defence minister warned of attacks on U.S. bases if nuclear talks collapse.

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Brent update:

Earlier:

• US told Israel it won’t participate in an Israeli strike on Iran
• WSJ: Israeli attack on Iran could come within days, U.S. and Israeli officials say

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.