Israel-Hamas Ceasfire, Anyone?

Israel Softens Hostage Deal Terms – Markets Watching for Ceasefire Catalyst?

Geopolitical Update | June 16, 2025
Source: Mako News (Hebrew)

Israel has submitted a revised proposal in hostage negotiations with Hamas, signaling a potential opening for a temporary ceasefire – a development investors are watching closely amid heightened regional tensions.

According to reporting by Israeli outlet Mako News, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in a Fox News interview that “some progress” had been made. The remarks refer to renewed momentum in a proposal originally brokered by U.S. businessman Steve Witkoff, aimed at releasing Israeli hostages held in Gaza.

New Details of the Proposal

• Day 1 of ceasefire: Israel is now willing to release 8 hostages, instead of 10.

• Day 20–30 of ceasefire: An additional 2 hostages would be released.

• This is a change from the original framework, which planned for 10 hostages on Day 1 and all others after a full 60-day truce.

Hamas previously rejected the 60-day delay in the second phase, fearing Israel might resume operations midway. Israel’s new flexibility aims to address that concern, though it’s still unclear if this will be sufficient to restart formal talks.

“The reason the war is being prolonged is the hostages. I am committed to getting them all out,” Netanyahu told Fox News’ Special Report.

Market Relevance: Why This Matters

While the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and regional assets have remained relatively stable despite military escalations, investors worldwide know from experience that a credible ceasefire proposal can shift sentiment quickly. If this new framework gains traction:

• Risk appetite may rise across EM equities, Israeli shekels, and regional ETFs.

• Defense stocks, often volatile in geopolitical crises, could see pullbacks.

• Oil markets may respond, depending on perceived Iranian involvement or de-escalation signals.

At the time of publication, no Israeli delegation has been dispatched to Cairo or Doha, suggesting the deal remains in a preliminary draft phase.

Bottom Line for Investors and Traders

• Geopolitical risk remains elevated, but new signs of diplomatic flexibility may soften market nerves.

• Traders should watch for further verification from Qatar, Egypt, or U.S. officials in the coming days.

• Any confirmed progress or ceasefire implementation would likely impact risk-sensitive assets and defense sector valuations.

ForexLive (evolving to become investingLive.com later this summer) will continue to monitor these developments and provide real-time reaction across currency, equity, and commodity markets.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.