How have interest rates expectations changed following the surge in oil prices?

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 47 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 19 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 48 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 24 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 74 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 27 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 45 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

*for the SNB, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 17 bps (100% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

The surge in oil prices saw a bit of a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. The change is negligible and with the expected de-escalation, we should see a pullback in oil prices.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.