ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Senior US officials considering a weekend Iran attack

Middle East (read from the bottom up for the as-it-happened

• Israel issues evacuation warning near Iran’s Arak nuclear complex
• The US is considering an attack on Iran this coming weekend
• Trump weighs strike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, but remains unconvinced
• Israeli media reports the latest Iranian attack was intercepted by US air defense systems
• Goldman Sachs says Brent crude oil could spike just above $90/bbl.
• Report – Trump doesn’t want to be dragged into a prolonged war in the Middle East
• Trump ‘getting comfortable’ with the idea of taking out Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility
• Further reports that Trump has approved attack plans, but in wait and see mode
• WSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plans
• NYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump’s offer to meet
• Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend

Other

• JP Morgan sticks to strategy despite Fed outlook, sees fundamentally strong US economy
• Japan to raise government bond (JGB) sales to individuals by 500 bn yen to 5.1 trl yen
• Bank of Japan likely to stay on hold until January or March 2026
• Construction of an EV battery plant in South Carolina halted, US policy uncertainty cited
• Australia’s labour market shows resilience despite May job dip – recap
• Australia May 2025 jobless rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected) & Employment Change -2.5k(+25K)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1729 (vs. estimate at 7.1916)
• PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1916 – Reuters estimate
• Most Japanese firms unfazed by U.S. tariffs, support sales tax relief — Reuters survey
• New Zealand q1 GDP +0.8% q/q (expected +0.7%, prior +0.5%)
• US markets closed for Juneteenth on Thursday, June 19th – market hours impact
• Putin says Russia will conduct military drills with China this year
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 19 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

It was a busy session for Middle East-related developments. In the US, as the latest Situation Room meeting at the White House got underway late in the afternoon, a flurry of headlines crossed the wires:

• Fox Business News’ Charles Gasparino reported that a U.S. strike on Iran could come as early as this weekend, citing sources close to the White House.

• The New York Times reported that an unnamed Iranian Foreign Ministry official said Tehran is open to President Trump’s offer to meet.

• The Wall Street Journal said Trump has approved military plans but is holding off on a final order, awaiting signs that Iran may step back from its nuclear program.

Following the short, 20-minute Situation Room meeting, ABC News reported that Trump is growing more comfortable with the idea of targeting Iran’s heavily fortified Fordow nuclear facility. According to a source familiar with the intelligence, the operation would involve multiple coordinated strikes, not just a single hit. Trump is said to be weighing the risks carefully, seeking assurance that any attack would be strategic, necessary, and would achieve the objective of halting Iran’s nuclear program — without dragging the US into a prolonged conflict.

In parallel, the U.S. military has repositioned key assets in the Middle East to reduce their vulnerability to potential Iranian retaliation, according to two officials cited by Reuters. Warships have been moved from Bahrain’s naval base, and fighter jets that couldn’t be housed in reinforced shelters were relocated from Qatar’s al-Udeid Air Base.

Later in the session Bloomberg reported, confirming Gasparino’s story (see first point above) that senior U.S. officials across multiple federal agencies are preparing for a possible strike in the coming days, with some sources pointing to the weekend as a likely window.

Markets reacted, albeit in a limited fashion: the US dollar rose across the board, pushing EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP, AUD, NZD, and CAD lower. U.S. equity index futures, already drifting down earlier in the session, extended losses. Some of all these declines were later trimmed.

In other news:

• New Zealand’s economy grew at a faster pace in Q1, rebounding from the 2024 technical recession as exports surged and the RBNZ eased rates.

• Australia’s May jobs report showed a net loss of around 2,000 jobs, following April’s sharp gain of 89,000. The unemployment rate remains low. The data today did not argue against the RBA still appearing likely to cut its cash rate again in July. The meeting is on the 7th and 8th.

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Brent crude has not had large swings:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.