investingLive Americas FX news wrap 15 Oct: USD falls, but China remains a concern.

• US stock markets sizzle at the open, slump midday and then recover to gains
• Gold has the spotlight right now but oil will take it again before long
• Crude oil settles at $58.27
• UK’s Reeves shrugs off ‘scaremongering’ tips higher taxes on the wealthy
• Beige Book shows now signs of US acceleration
• Fed’s Waller: AI is moving so fast we’ll see job losses before new jobs
• More Fed’s Miran: AI investment could lead to a higher neutral rate
• European indices close mixed. US stocks are higher. Gold at a new record.
• Treas Sec Bessent: As long as Argentina enacts sound policy, they will have U.S. support
• ECB’s Nagel: German economy is improving
• Fed’s Miran: Two more rate cuts this year sounds realistic
• Can Trump tolerate a trade war that would roil the stock market?
• Bessent: If China wants to be an unreliable partner for the world we will need to decouple
• USTR’s Greer: China’s actions are a complete repudation of recent US-China agreements
• Hassett: There is a generous bailout coming for farmers when the shutdown ends
• Bessent: US-Canada trade talks back on track
• Canada August wholesale trade -1.2% vs -1.3% expected
• NY Manufacturing index for August 10.7 vs -1.40 estimate
• The USD is lower to start the NA trading session. What are the technicals telling traders?
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar drops while equities jump, gold hits $4,200

The USD is ending the US session, the way it started the session – with the USD lower. The biggest mover was the GBPUSD with a rise of 0.52%. The dollar fell -0.37% vs the JPY, -0.46% vs the CHF and -0.31% vs the AUD. The USD was modestly higher vs the CAD (by 0.05%).

The dollar decline was additional follow through selling after the decline yesterday on the back of Fed Chair Powell focusing on potential weakness on employment and that the Fed may look to stop the balance sheet run off (dovish). The market expects a November and December cut.

Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized that the U.S. wants to help China, not hurt it, but warned that China’s own economic coercion will ultimately damage its economy the most. He said there will be multiple meetings this week on China’s new trade restrictions and highlighted that if China continues to act as an unreliable global partner, the U.S. may have to decouple, though he reiterated that Washington prefers to de-risk, not decouple.

Bessent criticized China’s purchases of Russian oil, arguing they fuel Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, and called for European allies to align with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods tied to Russian energy. He noted substantial U.S.–China communications in recent days, with President Trump still planning to meet President Xi in South Korea. Bessent framed tariffs as surcharges, not taxes, saying they can be borne by either exporter or importer, and justified the administration’s emergency powers as essential to protect the U.S. economy amid Chinese provocations.

He added that the U.S. offered to lift fentanyl-related tariffs under the IEEPA if China resolves the fentanyl issue for six months, but cautioned that Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans remain in place until Washington acts first. Overall, Bessent’s remarks reflected a firm but conditional approach — maintaining economic pressure on China while signaling a path toward de-escalation if progress is made on key issues like fentanyl and trade discipline.

Fed, Fed’s Miran (recent Trump nominee and dove) struck a distinctly dovish tone (not surprising), saying that two more rate cuts this year “sound realistic” and are already fully priced in by markets. He noted that recent developments — including the government shutdown and renewed U.S.–China tensions — have made rate cuts more urgent, as these shocks pose new downside risks to the economy.

Miran argued that current Fed policy is more restrictive than it appears, since the neutral rate has fallen amid shifts from immigration, AI investment, and other structural changes. While AI could eventually raise the neutral rate, he said for now, policy is tighter than many assume. He also emphasized that his disagreement with colleagues is about the pace of easing, not the ultimate destination for rates.

On inflation, Miran expressed confidence that price pressures are easing, especially in housing, and said he places less emphasis on gradual policy adjustments.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book reported that overall U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, with most districts describing growth as modest or flat and some noting early signs of softening demand. Employment remained stable, though several districts highlighted increasing layoffs and hiring freezes, particularly in industries facing weaker demand or elevated uncertainty. Labor supply remains tight in sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, partly reflecting shifts in immigration policy. Inflation pressures persist, fueled by higher input costs and new tariffs, though the degree of price pass-through to consumers varies by region. With official inflation data delayed by the government shutdown, policymakers are relying more heavily on these anecdotal insights to gauge the economy’s underlying momentum.

Crude oil is lower again with the low price reaching $58.20. Adam Button in a post wrote that world oil demand has reached record highs, yet prices remain subdued, with crude down with the price down 18% lower year-to-date, far from the $130 levels seen in 2022.

The main drag? OPEC+ continuing to add supply, which has kept the market oversupplied.

Still, as Adam Button notes, the “cure for low prices is low prices,” since depressed prices discourage new drilling and investment, eventually tightening supply. Demand is expected to grow by another 1 million barrels per day in 2026, which could gradually restore balance—though whether that occurs in 2026 or 2027 remains uncertain. CLICK here to read the full story.

Meanwhile, gold and silver continued their runs to the upside. Gold is up by $63 or 1.54% at $4206 and silver is up 1.62 or 3.14% at $53.07 on the day. Both are on pace for record closing levels for the day.

Bitcoin buyers are NOT as relentless. Since tradin to a new record high price at $126,272, the price has the hundred 10,000 915,000 over the last 6 trading days. The current price is trading near the low of the range at $111,343 down $-1734 or -1.53%

US broader stock indices traded up and down and is closing in the middle The Dow was not as fortunate as it gave back some of the gains from yesterday when it was the one indice that moved higher.

The final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average fell -17.15 points or -0.04% at 46253.31
• S&P index rose 26.75 points or 0.40% at 6671.05
• NASDAQ index rose 148.38 points or 0.66% at 22670.08

In the US debt market, the yields are modestly higher:

• 2-year yield 3.499%, +2.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.623%, +2.3 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.035%, +1.4 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.632%, +0 point basis points.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.