Sorry for the long absent, I was being lazy (hey, it is what it is no need to make up an excuse for it)
COT report for gold last week see a VASTLY different in opinion between large speculators(Mostly Bullish) and commercial sector(Mostly Bearish) but in the end the short contracts are still outnumbered the long, though not by much.
In my opinion, the one we should pay attention to is the Commercial sector’s, they have 351,473 short contracts against 162,608 long suggested that they’re confident that POG will be bearish for a good while.
However, I don’t think it will last long, I estimated the lowest low of the current downward swing at around 1320-1310 level before coming back up again, when it will test 1348, The prospect of a trade war will certainly help push the gold up even further.
Economic Events to lookout for (High volatility impact for gold):
10 April: U.S. Producer Price Index data
11 April: Consumer Price Index data
12 April: FOMC Meeting and Jobless Claims