Hi fellas, it’s been a while, I would make something up like “I was busy” or “I had urgent business to attend to”, but the truth is I have just been too lazy to do community analysis. Anyways, I’m back now and here it is:
The dollar index (DXY ticker) looks very bearish in my opinion, and I predict a fairly large downward leg over the next couple of weeks, price spiked and rejected very strongly from the 97.70 level last month and is filling a reversal pattern with lower highs every week. The most recent spike failed to break the 97.53 level, as proven by previous price action to be of paramount importance, I think we have a downtrend on the horizon. This coming week I expect the dollar to consolidate and the break down, targeting the 97.0 level, which should line up with the 50 and 200 moving average (4h). I would expect it to consolidate at this level, but where it breaks from there is difficult to tell, but my bias is down. Its important to note that Monday will be a bank holiday for almost all the major exchanges for Easter, so not a lot of money will be moving the market. Aside from that news wise the markets should be fairly quiet this week, except for Thursday, when we will be seeing a lot of macroeconomic data regarding domestic and foreign goods orders, including military goods. A strong reading has both political and economic implications, so watch out for a Trump statement! The consensus for this data is largely bullish, so be careful shortselling as you could well get shaken out.
I would usually add analysis on GBP, EUR, and JPY, but my feeling is that this coming week the Dollar will be the prime mover, as the rest of us are out hunting for Easter eggs, the Americans will be moving money.
Good luck, and see you Next week,