AUD popped above 0.6400 after better than expected China exports data … be careful folks

The numbers are here, exports did not plunge as feared. They were lower than in March, but the pipelines were jammed full in March ahead of more Trump tariffs.

• April figures, in US dollar terms: exports +8.1% y/y

Putting on my sceptical hat for a minute ….

There are sometimes questions about the veracity of Chinese data. This has been ramped a little higher in the present environment, especially going into the weekend when the US and China begin tentative trade talks. Neither side wants to display weakness.

From the US its been bluster about a stack of deals coming in in the weeks ahead (yeah, right), supported by a lack lustre ‘framework’ of an agreement’ with the UK. From China we had tough talk just today:

• China Vice Foreign Minister Hua: On US trade talks … ‘come on. We have no fear.’

And now we get decent export numbers? And … the data came out as scheduled whereas normally we are kept waiting and waiting.

Anyway, make up your own mind, but I’m sceptical.

AUD off its low:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.