CBA sees gold hitting $3,750/oz by year-end on safe-haven flows, weaker dollar

Gold prices are poised to rise to $3,750 per ounce by the fourth quarter, driven by rising safe-haven demand and a weakening U.S. dollar, according to a new report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).

In a note from Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at CBA, the bank highlighted geopolitical tensions—particularly the risk of military escalation involving Iran—as a key upside risk for bullion. “The threat of military strikes against Iran cannot be ruled out, which raises the stakes if U.S.-Iran talks remain deadlocked,” Dhar said.

Gold’s traditional role as a safe haven may become even more pronounced, the report suggests, especially as it has recently outperformed both the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys amid rising American tariffs.

CBA also expects the dollar to gradually weaken through the second half of 2025 and into 2026, further supporting the bullish gold outlook.

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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.