Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dip in PPI pulls down USD/JPY

• US April retail sales +0.1% vs 0.0% expected
• US April PPI +2.4% vs +2.5% expected
• US initial jobless claims 229K versus 229K estimate
• Philadelphia Fed Business index for May -4.0 vs -11.0 expected
• US May NAHB housing market index 34 vs 40 expected
• US April industrial production 0.0% vs +0.2% expected
• Empire manufacturing index for May -9.2 vs -10.0 estimate
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 rises to 2.5% from 2.3% prior
• EU’s Sefcovic agreed with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick to accelerate trade talks
• US business inventories for March 0.1% vs 0.2% estimate
• Bank of Mexico cuts benchmark interest rate to 8.5% from 9.0%
• Fed’s Barr says economy is on a solid footing, trade clouds the outlook
• Fed’s Powell discusses mon pol framework, doesn’t comment on the outlook for rates
• Canada March wholesale trade 0.2% vs -0.3% expected
• Walmart offers a major warning on prices

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down $1.42 to $61.77
• US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 4.43%
• Gold up $60 to $3234
• CHF leads, NZD lags
• S&P 500 up 0.4%

We got a full slate of data today and most of the numbers were close to estimates but PPI stood out as a softer indication and that led to Fed rate cut odds ticking higher, especially further out the curve. It also lent some relief in bonds as yields fell 7-11 bps across the curve.

The US dollar continues to differ in its reaction function to yield moves, suggesting that fiscal policy is increasingly seen as off-base. Despite falling yields, the US dollar rose and it’s been the opposite on days when yields have risen. That’s something Deutsche Bank raised the alarm on today and a critical dynamic to watch as the US budget drama plays out.

The US retail sales data was somewhat comforting as it showed strong spending in bars and restaurants, which is typically one of the first things to go. Walmart did offer a stark warning about price rises though so that should keep the Fed in watch-and-wait mode.

The Canadian dollar was something of an outperformer in North American as oil and commodity prices rebounded from the earlier lows. Part of that was a bounce in oil prices after Iran said it hadn’t received an deal offers from the United States. The risk picture also lent some support, though that wasn’t seen in the other commodity currencies.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.