ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Oil lower on Iran wanting a deal

• Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Thursday
• How China will take over Taiwan. Without firing a shot.
• APEC sees trade policy volatility in April 9 times greater than average of 2015–2024
• AUD/USD popped higher on the huge beat in the April jobs report
• Australia April 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected) & Employment Change +89.0K
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1963 (vs. estimate at 7.2217)
• Australia Inflation Expectations survey for May 2025: 4.1% (prior 4.2%)
• Chinese financial media reports, again, that there is room for cuts to the RRR this year
• US Treasury 10-year yield rises to its highest in a month at 4.55%
• UBS sees sees further upside for technology stocks but note 4 risks
• New Zealand Food Price Index for April +0.8% m/m (prior +0.5%)

Oil, Iran:

• More on “Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal” if sanctions lifted
• Media reports that Iran is ready to sign an agreement for relief from sanctions

–

• More from Fed’s Daly – can’t give forward guidance now due to uncertainty
• Point72’s Steve Cohen says the US is not in recession … yet. Fed will be slow to cut.
• Fed’s Daly: Business is cautious amidst the economic uncertainty, but not “stalling out”
• Citi edge their 0 – 3 month Brent crude forecast slightly higher
• Foot Locker shares jump higher – Dick’s Sporting Goods is close to acquiring
• Deutsche Bank says U.S. equities to maintain short-term outperformance amid tariff pause
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 May: The USD rebounds from earlier declines. Gold lower
• ICYMI:China tightens full-chain control on strategic minerals to bolster national security
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 15 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Oil
prices dropped quickly in early Asia after significant comments from
a top
adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He
said that Iran
would agree
to

• never
  making nuclear weapons
• getting
  rid of its stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium
• allow
  international inspectors to supervise the process

in
exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran. He said Iran was ready to sign such an agreement today.

After
the drop price falls extended lower, an oil chart is posted below.

News
flow was light otherwise.

From
Australia we had a the latest employment report, for April. 89,000
jobs were added, the biggest monthly increase in 14 months

• 59,500
  of those full-time

The
unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, not too far off 5-decade lows.
The participation rate rose to a record high 67.1%, meaning more
entrants into the labour market keeping the jobless rate unchanged on
the month.

The
Reserve Bank of Australia meet next week, May 19 and 20, and despite
this solid jobs report are still expected to cut their cash rate by
25bp. The
Australian dollar popped a few points after the data release but
there has been no extentison higher as yet.

EUR,
GBP, NZD, CAD are all a little higher on the session.

USD/JPY
lost some ground on no news or data flow. As I post its testing its session lows around 146.00.

Gold
lost further ground on the session. China has been a reliable buyer
during the timezone but supportive flows from there have diminished.

US
Treasury yields rose higher. Markets are questioning whether the rise
in yield reflects expectations of better growth ahead, or
expectations of some sort of reckoning to come with US debt
continuing to skyrocket. Trump’s plan had been to replace income
taxes with tariff revenue, to control the US debt/GDP ratio, but,
while tax cuts are still being planned, the tariff revenue dream is
looking lost.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.