Mentions of “recession” on S&P 500 earnings calls have surged to highest level since 2023

Mentions of “recession” on S&P 500 earnings calls have surged to their highest level since 2023, according to company transcripts tracked by analysts.

• The spike in recession rhetoric comes despite generally solid earnings and resilient consumer data, highlighting mounting corporate unease over the broader macro backdrop.
• Executives are increasingly citing risks tied to inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, and a potential slowdown in global demand.
• Notably, the re-emergence of U.S. tariff threats—particularly targeting China and key trade partners—has added another layer of uncertainty, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions and margin pressures.
• Analysts say the cautious tone may reflect pre-emptive positioning ahead of a potentially more volatile second half.

This cartoon was in Chinese media a month or so ago.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.