Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 June: The focus is on what next in Iran/Israel conflict

• Canada will introduce a series of countermeasures to help it deal with Trump tariffs
• White House: Pres. Trump will make decision on whether to attack Iran within 2-weeks
• Israel Intelligence: Imminent collapse of Iran regime is far from the truth
• Iran-Israel Conflict Deepens: Arak Reactor Hit, Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
• EU increasingly resigned to 10% baseline tariff – report
• Iran held direct talks with US – report
• Oil breaks the June high
• BOE’s Lombardelli: Services inflation is proving quite sticky
• WTI crude oil rises to $75 as Iran launches fresh missiles
• US stock markets are closed but futures are near the lows of the week
• The technicals that are driving the 3 major currency pairs a day after the FOMC
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: SNB cuts to 0%, BOE stays on hold as anticipated

The US market were closed today in observance of Juneteenth. Meanwhile, the SNB cut rates, the BOE kept rates unchanged and both happened less than 24 hours from the US Fed keeping rates unchanged.

With bonds and stocks closed (although the e-mini S&P did move lower by 0.93%), the focus remained on the Israel-Iran conflict and the potential for US involvement.

The conflict did heat up with some strikes from Iran being felt in Israel. A hospital was hit. There were casualties and other destruction. Crude oil prices moved toward $76, but backed off (at $73.85).

The question that continues to be asked is “Will the US be dragged into the conflict?”.

Trump has been taking the backseat so far and continued to do that – at least through his WH Press Secretary who at first tried to funnel the conversation toward immigrations successes and then to the big, beautiful bill.

However, questions led to the topic of interest, and the response – the direct message – from the President was “based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks”

Breaking that direct statement down, the Pres. said…

• “Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran”. “Substantial chance?”. I think there is a 100% chance that negotiations may or may not take place with Iran. Either it is or it isn’t equals 100%.
• “I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks”. Ok. “Within the next two weeks” says something could happen tonight, tomorrow or out two weeks. What is the “something”? To “go” or “not to go”. Go where? I presume into battle with Israel against Iran

Generally speaking, the comment was a big nothing burger full of ambiguity..

The Juneteenth holiday gave the President, the opportunity to sit this day out.. Even on Truth Social, he was quiet. He posted about extending TikTok closure by 90-days (it ain’t going to close. He likes surfing it) and spoke about his 56% approval rating.

Anyway, European allies will be speaking with Iranian officials on Friday calling for peace and negotiation. Trump said yesterday, Iran wanted to talk. Iran said they did not say that.

Buckle up. Tomorrow will likely be a bigger day, but like the Fed and their apprehension to do anything given the uncertainties, Trump I ironically leaning toward doing nothing given the uncertainties from jumping in the pool of the Iran/Isreal conflict.

Looking at the US dollar, it is closing mixed vs the major currencies:

• EUR -0.14%
• JPY +0.22%
• GBP -0.34%
• CHF -0.33% (despite the SNB cutting by 25 bps to 0.00%
• CAD, +0.04%
• AUD +0.51%
• NZD +0.65%

European shares closed lower:

• German Dax – 1.14%
• France’s CAC – -1.34%
• UK FSE -0.58%
• Spain’s Ibex -1.28%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.21%

Gold is unchanged at $3370.40. Crude oil is up $0.38 at $73.88 after trading as high as $75.70. Bitcoin is unchanged.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.