French and Spanish inflation data on the agenda today

That will be the main items on the economic calendar in European trading later today. But barring any surprises, the inflation numbers aren’t going to make a splash on the outlook through the summer. As things stand, traders are seeing ~85% odds of the ECB keeping key rates on hold in July with ~52% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for September. By year-end, traders are only pricing in ~26 bps of rate cuts i.e. one more rate cut only. So, that’s the backdrop as we navigate through the releases later today.

• 0645 GMT – France June preliminary CPI figures
• 0700 GMT – Spain June preliminary CPI figures

The estimate is for French headline annual inflation to come in at 0.7% (unchanged from May). Meanwhile, Spanish headline annual inflation is estimated to be 2.0% (unchanged from May).

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.