May non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: What does the data say

• Consensus estimate +130K
• Estimate range +75K to +190K
• April was +228K
• Private consensus +120K versus +167K prior
• Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2%
• Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1872% versus 4.1519% prior
• Prior participation rate 62.6%
• Prior underemployment U6 7.8%
• Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% versus +3.8% prior
• Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.2% prior
• Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus 34.3 prior

Numbers released so far this month:

• ADP report +37K versus +62K prior (lowest in two years)
• ISM services employment 50.7 vs 49.0 prior
• ISM manufacturing employment 46.8 vs 46.5 prior
• Challenger job cuts 93.8K vs 105.4K prior
• Philly employment +16.5 vs +0.2 prior
• Empire employment -5.1 vs -2.6 prior
• Initial jobless claims survey week 226K vs 216K prior

I noticed that HFE — which is a firm I really respect — is at the high end of forecasts at +181K. They often spot seasonal quirks and that might be the case here.

In general, there is some modest seasonal strength in the report with it coming above estimates 54% of the time, though the downside misses have been big when they’ve missed. In terms of the unemployment rate, 44% have been lower while 40% have been higher with the remainder matching the estimate.

Overall, I don’t think this is a particularly important report given that the Fed is in ‘wait and see’ mode.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.